what an irony

[Steve]

>>basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....


That's what he said. Technically almost all waves could be classified as Cape Verde waves. But we consider the Cape Verde season the season of the long trackers - usually running from mid-August until some time in September.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

ivanhater the CV season is through the end of September. By October even if anything develops out there too many troughs and ULL dominate the Atlantic so a fish storm is more likely. September is the prime month for CV....and yes it IS possible that things will pick up in a couple of weeks.

Normally you would be quite correct(about the bolded comment above). However, please tell me what has been "normal" this season. Don't get me wrong. I am not wishing for anything near what Dr. Gray or NHC have predicted we could get, but if don't at least approach those numbers I will be very surprised!!!

[Ivanhater]

>>basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....


That's what he said. Technically almost all waves could be classified as Cape Verde waves. But we consider the Cape Verde season the season of the long trackers - usually running from mid-August until some time in September.

Steve

irene is already here and was the technical "cape verde wave"..and nhc is tracking another cape verde wave for possible development...so we already have one were tracking now and another possible one on the way with even more moving off the coast that look promising...so i dont know where 4 to 6 weeks comes from

[SouthernWx]

there are no major Cape Verde waves coming off Africa that will develop anytime soon AND even if one did it would take about 2 weeks to reach the U.S...basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....it's looking like we won't hit the numbers that Dr. Gray predicted..not even close...

an active early season usually means a quiet later season.

1) there are more ways to get named storms and hurricanes than from the Cape Verde region (and that season doesn't normally even begin until August 20th; Cape Verde hurricanes before mid-August are extremely rare).

2) an active early season can also mean a very active, record breaking season. Look at the 1933 and 1995 hurricane charts.....there wasn't "wall to wall" storms from June 1st onward to November. There was a serious lull in September 1995, and we still ended up w/ 19 storms.

I'm 43 yrs old....have researched hurricanes since 1975, and have never seen such an insane hurricane season as we're experiencing; 1995 was close, but not this wild & crazy. Already nine storms and two 150+ mph hurricanes. Son, do you realize how many hurricane seasons I've witnessed with NO hurricanes reaching even 135 mph?.....how many seasons that I've experienced with NO named storms as of August 11th?? I can remember numerous hurricane seasons in which the entire season was more boring than we've experienced so far, and the real intense season is not even here yet.

If I saw any signs or reasons to expect a weakened/ less active peak of the hurricane season OR anything to tell me this season will end early, I'd agree with you.....but I honestly don't. Sea surface temps continue to warm...the area of 27°+ (C) sst's continues to expand. Combined with no apparent inhibiting atmospheric factors, this season's peak should be very active with multiple storms on the map at the same time....and the season should last well into Autumn.

PW

[Ivanhater]

there are no major Cape Verde waves coming off Africa that will develop anytime soon AND even if one did it would take about 2 weeks to reach the U.S...basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....it's looking like we won't hit the numbers that Dr. Gray predicted..not even close...

an active early season usually means a quiet later season.

1) there are more ways to get named storms and hurricanes than from the Cape Verde region (and that season doesn't normally even begin until August 20th; Cape Verde hurricanes before mid-August are extremely rare).

2) an active early season can also mean a very active, record breaking season. Look at the 1933 and 1995 hurricane charts.....there wasn't "wall to wall" storms from June 1st onward to November. There was a serious lull in September 1995, and we still ended up w/ 19 storms.

I'm 43 yrs old....have researched hurricanes since 1975, and have never seen such an insane hurricane season as we're experiencing; 1995 was close, but not this wild & crazy. Already nine storms and two 150+ mph hurricanes. Son, do you realize how many hurricane seasons I've witnessed with NO hurricanes reaching even 135 mph?.....how many seasons that I've experienced with NO named storms as of August 11th?? I can remember numerous hurricane seasons in which the entire season was more boring than we've experienced so far, and the real intense season is not even here yet.

If I saw any signs or reasons to expect a weakened/ less active peak of the hurricane season OR anything to tell me this season will end early, I'd agree with you.....but I honestly don't. Sea surface temps continue to warm...the area of 27°+ (C) sst's continues to expand. Combined with no apparent inhibiting atmospheric factors, this season's peak should be very active with multiple storms on the map at the same time....and the season should last well into Autumn.

PW

very disturbing...but so very true

[sweetpea]

there are no major Cape Verde waves coming off Africa that will develop anytime soon AND even if one did it would take about 2 weeks to reach the U.S...basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....it's looking like we won't hit the numbers that Dr. Gray predicted..not even close...

an active early season usually means a quiet later season.

1) there are more ways to get named storms and hurricanes than from the Cape Verde region (and that season doesn't normally even begin until August 20th; Cape Verde hurricanes before mid-August are extremely rare).

2) an active early season can also mean a very active, record breaking season. Look at the 1933 and 1995 hurricane charts.....there wasn't "wall to wall" storms from June 1st onward to November. There was a serious lull in September 1995, and we still ended up w/ 19 storms.

I'm 43 yrs old....have researched hurricanes since 1975, and have never seen such an insane hurricane season as we're experiencing; 1995 was close, but not this wild & crazy. Already nine storms and two 150+ mph hurricanes. Son, do you realize how many hurricane seasons I've witnessed with NO hurricanes reaching even 135 mph?.....how many seasons that I've experienced with NO named storms as of August 11th?? I can remember numerous hurricane seasons in which the entire season was more boring than we've experienced so far, and the real intense season is not even here yet.

If I saw any signs or reasons to expect a weakened/ less active peak of the hurricane season OR anything to tell me this season will end early, I'd agree with you.....but I honestly don't. Sea surface temps continue to warm...the area of 27°+ (C) sst's continues to expand. Combined with no apparent inhibiting atmospheric factors, this season's peak should be very active with multiple storms on the map at the same time....and the season should last well into Autumn.

PW

very disturbing...but so very true

Good post. Hopefully we have had our "rush" for this year.

[sma10]

Historically, June is usually dead; July is usually a tiny bit livelier, but still pretty dead; and August is usually a tale of two months -- Early August (which is as dead as July, and Late August where activity ramps up significantly).

Does anyone remember what NHC forecaster Franklin wrote a few days ago when Irene got named? He wrote that historically to this point in the season, we usually have two named storms. TWO! !

Here's a stat: The benchmark year that people keep bringing up is 1995. Heading into the 4th week of August in 1995 we had 7 named storms. Then the "traditional" peak hit and we had FIVE storms form in that week.

Does anyone else beside me notice that EVERY SINGLE SEASON this same thing comes up?

[Ivanhater]

honestly i think with all the data to prove how insanely active this season has and is, i think they are just trying to get attention because they just want to ignore that data staring them in the face.....this season is as rare as they get, no other way to put it

[sma10]

there are no major Cape Verde waves coming off Africa that will develop anytime soon AND even if one did it would take about 2 weeks to reach the U.S...basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....it's looking like we won't hit the numbers that Dr. Gray predicted..not even close...

an active early season usually means a quiet later season.

I'm not sure I understand your pessimism. We need 11 named storms to reach Dr. Gray's number. You think reaching his number is unattainable? Have you followed the last 10 hurricane seasons?

[Steve]

>>irene is already here and was the technical "cape verde wave"..and nhc is tracking another cape verde wave for possible development...so we already have one were tracking now and another possible one on the way with even more moving off the coast that look promising...so i dont know where 4 to 6 weeks comes from

Numerous early-season storms get fired up when a wave intersects them. And yes, Irene is a Cape Verde storm (though some classify only those storms that develop low-level closed circulation off the West Coast of Africa - I'm not one of 'em btw). But his comment wasn't that the Cape Verde Season would start in 4-6 weeks, he said it had another 4-6 weeks left to go. That would generally be an accurate statement in most seasons. This season is hyper and not completely following all the usual rules.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

>>irene is already here and was the technical "cape verde wave"..and nhc is tracking another cape verde wave for possible development...so we already have one were tracking now and another possible one on the way with even more moving off the coast that look promising...so i dont know where 4 to 6 weeks comes from

Numerous early-season storms get fired up when a wave intersects them. And yes, Irene is a Cape Verde storm (though some classify only those storms that develop low-level closed circulation off the West Coast of Africa - I'm not one of 'em btw). But his comment wasn't that the Cape Verde Season would start in 4-6 weeks, he said it had another 4-6 weeks left to go. That would generally be an accurate statement in most seasons. This season is hyper and not completely following all the usual rules.


Steve

yes but his point is the same...that the season is not that active, and whats going on now and has been is totally opposite, yes 4 to 6 weeks is a good estimate, so whats his point?....many many many storms could form in that amount if time....again, to say this season will not be as active as the predictions is going against sound logic and what is going on right now as we speak

[sma10]

>>Whats the issue?

Indeed.

But then again, this is America 2005. People vote based on soundbytes and outright lies (inviting anyone to factcheck.org and/or snopes.com next time you buy into an e-mail you're asked to pass on to 10 friends if you really [tm] do love God). Bubble-gum culture rules the day. People think McDonalds is good food and Budweiser is good beer. The average attention span is about 15 seconds. Gimmie. Gimmie. Gimmie.

/sign of the times

Steve

Post of the day, Steve.

In all seriousness, though, I was just thinking -- my guess is that a majority of people who think the season is lost, we have no chance to beat 1995, Dr. Gray went way, way over in his prediction, etc. etc. probably are those who have not been tracking storms for 10 - 15 or more years. Anyone who has been closely following hurricane season since 1995 knows that we are consistently getting very large numbers from late August on.

[sma10]

Son, do you realize how many hurricane seasons I've witnessed with NO hurricanes reaching even 135 mph?.....how many seasons that I've experienced with NO named storms as of August 11th?? I can remember numerous hurricane seasons in which the entire season was more boring than we've experienced so far, and the real intense season is not even here yet.

Southern: Amen brother to that! I wrote it before in another, similar thread: Can you even IMAGINE what this board would be like if we were in the horrible doldrums of the 1970's and 80's? In 1983, we had a TOTAL of 4 named storms. People would be slitting their throats in this forum!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Son, do you realize how many hurricane seasons I've witnessed with NO hurricanes reaching even 135 mph?.....how many seasons that I've experienced with NO named storms as of August 11th?? I can remember numerous hurricane seasons in which the entire season was more boring than we've experienced so far, and the real intense season is not even here yet.

Southern: Amen brother to that! I wrote it before in another, similar thread: Can you even IMAGINE what this board would be like if we were in the horrible doldrums of the 1970's and 80's? In 1983, we had a TOTAL of 4 named storms. People would be slitting their throats in this forum!

I be really thinking about it.

[sma10]

Son, do you realize how many hurricane seasons I've witnessed with NO hurricanes reaching even 135 mph?.....how many seasons that I've experienced with NO named storms as of August 11th?? I can remember numerous hurricane seasons in which the entire season was more boring than we've experienced so far, and the real intense season is not even here yet.

Southern: Amen brother to that! I wrote it before in another, similar thread: Can you even IMAGINE what this board would be like if we were in the horrible doldrums of the 1970's and 80's? In 1983, we had a TOTAL of 4 named storms. People would be slitting their throats in this forum!

I be really thinking about it.

Hey, Matt: Maybe next year we can beat 1983 and get only 3 named storms! Woo hooo

[KeyLargoDave]

Can you even IMAGINE what this board would be like if we were in the horrible doldrums of the 1970's and 80's? In 1983, we had a TOTAL of 4 named storms. People would be slitting their throats in this forum!

No, the children would be playing somewhere else.

[BayouVenteux]

A most emphatic ditto re. Perry (SouthernWx) and Steve's posts above. 'Nuff said.

[WeatherEmperor]

NOAA and Dr. Gray have issued a serious upgrade in the number, frequency and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms this year - but, where is the activity? It's not that early anymore - tomorrow is August 12th and Saturday will be the anniversary of Charley. This season better pick up pretty soon - apparently, the experts know something for later in the season that I don't - but, it needs to build fairly soon or I'll be a disbeliever. What is going to change? At this hour, Irene is struggling again but is in is very warm SST's with lower shear. What's going on with this season?

What's going on with this record chasing season?....absolutely nothing. We're still on a record pace (most named storms ever BEFORE September 1st are 12).....I believe Irene could become a major hurricane and impact the southeast coast....and already see signs on the horizon that "all hurricane h@ll" is about to be unleashed.

Look at it this way friend....we're just now getting to the point (August 15th) when I normally start expecting an increase in tropical cyclone activity; the time in August when I first begin to normally look for potential major hurricanes. This year, there has already been two borderline cat-4/5 hurricanes (both landfalling as major hurricanes), and nine named storms....and the "real" major hurricane season is just now BEGINNING!!

You refer to Charley last August 13th....do you realize that Charley was the EARLIEST in the season landfalling major hurricane in Florida peninsula history? August major hurricanes are rare in central and southern Florida; climatologically October is far more likely to spawn a landfalling major hurricane into SoFla than August. It's honestly not even time for major Florida peninsula hurricanes yet.....that is normally September 1st through October 20th (hurricane Andrew was the first August landfalling major hurricane in SoFla since 1949....and only the 2nd since 1900 (and Charley the 3rd; only 3 in 105 years).

Yes, it's been "sorta" quiet the past couple weeks...and even during the "lull", we still witnessed two named storms. We're soon coming into a more favorable MJO pattern PLUS the normal climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.....I honestly expect bloody h#ll to erupt in the next 10-14 days and last well into October; and it could well rival or even exceed what we witnessed a decade ago. In 1995, the continental U.S. was only slammed by one major cane (Opal), with Luis and Marilyn devastating the northeast Caribbean. We've (U.S.A.) already been struck by 120 mph cat-3 Dennis....Irene has a good chance IMO of being U.S. major landfalling hurricane #2 of this season; and lord only knows what is coming down the pike....as we enter an ominous time of year when powerful hurricanes aren't rarities as Dennis and Emily were

Just my 0.02¢ worth...

PW

actually i wanna make a very small correct to your statement. Hurricane Andrew was not the first landfall of a major hurricane in south florida since 1949. Actually you forgot about Donna in 1960(hit extreme northern keys and southern tip of FL peninsula), Isbell in 1964 and the unforgettable Betsy in 1965 which devestated the northern key and if the Keys are not part of south florida then I wonder what they are. lol

<RICKY>

[wxwatcher91]

hmm... the title of this thread is "what an irony"

yes... let's talk about irony, let's talk about how ironic it is that this thread is up while 96L has just formed and is forecasted by the SHIPS model to be a hurricane in 96 hours.

[sma10]

NOAA and Dr. Gray have issued a serious upgrade in the number, frequency and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms this year - but, where is the activity? It's not that early anymore - tomorrow is August 12th and Saturday will be the anniversary of Charley. This season better pick up pretty soon - apparently, the experts know something for later in the season that I don't - but, it needs to build fairly soon or I'll be a disbeliever. What is going to change? At this hour, Irene is struggling again but is in is very warm SST's with lower shear. What's going on with this season?

What's going on with this record chasing season?....absolutely nothing. We're still on a record pace (most named storms ever BEFORE September 1st are 12).....I believe Irene could become a major hurricane and impact the southeast coast....and already see signs on the horizon that "all hurricane h@ll" is about to be unleashed.

Look at it this way friend....we're just now getting to the point (August 15th) when I normally start expecting an increase in tropical cyclone activity; the time in August when I first begin to normally look for potential major hurricanes. This year, there has already been two borderline cat-4/5 hurricanes (both landfalling as major hurricanes), and nine named storms....and the "real" major hurricane season is just now BEGINNING!!

You refer to Charley last August 13th....do you realize that Charley was the EARLIEST in the season landfalling major hurricane in Florida peninsula history? August major hurricanes are rare in central and southern Florida; climatologically October is far more likely to spawn a landfalling major hurricane into SoFla than August. It's honestly not even time for major Florida peninsula hurricanes yet.....that is normally September 1st through October 20th (hurricane Andrew was the first August landfalling major hurricane in SoFla since 1949....and only the 2nd since 1900 (and Charley the 3rd; only 3 in 105 years).

Yes, it's been "sorta" quiet the past couple weeks...and even during the "lull", we still witnessed two named storms. We're soon coming into a more favorable MJO pattern PLUS the normal climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.....I honestly expect bloody h#ll to erupt in the next 10-14 days and last well into October; and it could well rival or even exceed what we witnessed a decade ago. In 1995, the continental U.S. was only slammed by one major cane (Opal), with Luis and Marilyn devastating the northeast Caribbean. We've (U.S.A.) already been struck by 120 mph cat-3 Dennis....Irene has a good chance IMO of being U.S. major landfalling hurricane #2 of this season; and lord only knows what is coming down the pike....as we enter an ominous time of year when powerful hurricanes aren't rarities as Dennis and Emily were

Just my 0.02¢ worth...

PW

actually i wanna make a very small correct to your statement. Hurricane Andrew was not the first landfall of a major hurricane in south florida since 1949. Actually you forgot about Donna in 1960(hit extreme northern keys and southern tip of FL peninsula), Isbell in 1964 and the unforgettable Betsy in 1965 which devestated the northern key and if the Keys are not part of south florida then I wonder what they are. lol

<RICKY>

Donna and Betsy were in September. I think Isbell was in October.