TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Sanibel]

This should be intensifying. I don't get it.

[clfenwi]

12/0545 UTC 26.6N 65.2W T2.5/3.0 09 -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD drops their intensity estimate a notch.

[KeyLargoDave]

She's embarrassed. Too many people watching her trying to get dressed up and go.

</anthropomorphizing>

[clfenwi]

AFWA's estimate...

TPNT KGWC 120630
A. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (NINE)
B. 12/0531Z (62)
C. 27.3N/2
D. 64.8W/8
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS -12/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, ADDED 0.5
FOR
BNDNG FEATURE GIVES A DT OF 4.0. FT BASED ON PT, MET AGREES.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with Afwa. The center is becoming much tighter under the southeastern side of the convection.

[clfenwi]

06Z models... initialized with an intensity of 50 knots and a heading of 310° .


WHXX01 KWBC 120650
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050812 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050812 0600 050812 1800 050813 0600 050813 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 64.8W 28.7N 66.6W 29.9N 68.0W 30.9N 69.4W
BAMM 27.2N 64.8W 28.4N 66.5W 29.4N 67.9W 30.2N 69.2W
A98E 27.2N 64.8W 28.7N 66.8W 29.9N 67.9W 31.0N 68.6W
LBAR 27.2N 64.8W 28.5N 66.2W 29.5N 67.4W 30.4N 68.5W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 62KTS 65KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 62KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050814 0600 050815 0600 050816 0600 050817 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.3N 70.6W 36.0N 69.8W 37.3N 63.4W 36.0N 58.9W
BAMM 31.2N 70.3W 33.4N 70.8W 34.8N 69.1W 34.7N 66.5W
A98E 31.8N 69.0W 32.9N 69.3W 33.7N 67.9W 34.0N 65.9W
LBAR 30.9N 69.7W 32.1N 71.1W 32.8N 71.9W 33.3N 72.7W
SHIP 66KTS 65KTS 63KTS 64KTS
DSHP 66KTS 65KTS 63KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 64.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 62.9W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 23.9N LONM24 = 60.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 50NM

[elysium]

Been quite a long day today. Just getting back in here. Reviewed a few of the threads, etc. Not every thread but quite a few. Made spot reviews of select pics coming off the sats. Would have thought that additional northward movement would have been more likely sooner than we have seen, followed by N.N.E. and then N.E. as Irene completes the manuever taking her out to sea.

Recurvature can never be an exact sciece as such. What to some is a storm moving north out to sea is by any other definition recurvature. Certainly this describes Irene's current mode of movement; now a little more to the north, later more to the northeast.

Recurving storms also have one other tendancy; they often threaten Bermuda. And it's no different with Irene. Bermuda beware. While not every recurving storm landfalls Bermuda, all recurving storms fist head N.W. followed by due north, and as indicated earlier, N.E. We are waiting for Irene to enter into the second and third phase of recurvature. Looking good, looking very good this hour. This news hopefully should cheer everyone up. Do be patient. Recurvatures are never straight line, they bend, out to sea.

Someone was asking about Jose. Presumably, as the system that recently emerged off the African coast develops, by the time it arrives just to the north of the islands, it will have been Jose for some time already. Clearly it is not Jose just yet. This system looks very healthy this morning. The NHC indicates it has a closed low now. We should begin to see more in the way of convection in the coming days. There is another system further east that is having some developmental problems, but that's common. This system is on a southerly lane in the ITCV, and we know how hard it is for these southerly systems to get going. This one is beginning to take its first tropical baby steps. We have noted that indeed, it is showing the early beginnings of circulation, so critical for these southerly beginners. It's coming along. Hopefully this too is good news for those who like to track these type storms.

All in all, I'd say the news is upbeat.

[elysium]

correction: the southerly system is actually further west on the system that recently emerged off the African coast.

[SouthFloridawx]

QS pass for 537 UTC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What in the world? That quickscat is showing a wave? I could of been very fooled!!! I can't wait intill recon.

[SouthFloridawx]

I know this is stupid but, is a loop possible. The nhc said that in days 4 and 5 the system should slow down considerably. I am wondering is it possible for it to loop like in the bamd?

[SouthFloridawx]

even the mm5 has shifted track....

[SouthFloridawx]

650Z Models for August 12

[KeyLargoDave]

All I can say is, please please miss the OBX. Those people don't need any more septic tanks left sitting on the sand.

Like to hear anyone's interpretation of that QS graphic. No closed circulation, or not trustworth, or not showing the surface?

[ALhurricane]

That Quikscat pass is from 2248z. You must look at the purple time stamp at the bottom of the image.

Also, QS has not performed well finding the circulation for several days now. Microwave imagery, ship reports, and visible imagery have been much more useful this time around in finding the LLC. It also shows up better in the latest IR as well.

[SouthFloridawx]

That Quikscat pass is from 2248z. You must look at the purple time stamp at the bottom of the image.

Also, QS has not performed well finding the circulation for several days now. Microwave imagery, ship reports, and visible imagery have been much more useful this time around in finding the LLC. It also shows up better in the latest IR as well.

Thanks for the advice I didn't see that on the bottom...

I will keep that in mind....

[Anonymous]

Models initialized at 50 kt or 60 mph.

[elysium]

Alright.....whew. I don't know what is going on now. Irene was recurving, but has stopped doing so. She appears to be moving to the southwest now all of a sudden. In the middle of a recurve, stops and heads southwest. Well my forecast just got tossed.

Sorry but Irene is not predictable. Irene does what Irene wants. End of story.

But no. Recurvature doesn't entail the movement we are seeing now. I've got to waste can it.

Dang!

[SouthFloridawx]

Alright.....whew. I don't know what is going on now. Irene was recurving, but has stopped doing so. She appears to be moving to the southwest now all of a sudden. In the middle of a recurve, stops and heads southwest. Well my forecast just got tossed.

Sorry but Irene is not predictable. Irene does what Irene wants. End of story.

But no. Recurvature doesn't entail the movement we are seeing now. I've got to waste can it.

Dang!

do you have a good loop to show that movement?

[ALhurricane]

Hmmm....so many options of how to respond, so little time.

These tricky storms just fool ya everytime.

Alright.....whew. I don't know what is going on now. Irene was recurving, but has stopped doing so. She appears to be moving to the southwest now all of a sudden. In the middle of a recurve, stops and heads southwest. Well my forecast just got tossed.

Sorry but Irene is not predictable. Irene does what Irene wants. End of story.

But no. Recurvature doesn't entail the movement we are seeing now. I've got to waste can it.

Dang!