TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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ThunderMate wrote:Now it looks like in the last 5 frames of the floater that Irene is moving due west. Does anyone else notice this or is this just me again? Fill in the first 7 blocks and watch the west and this is no wobble!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Due west? I don't think so.
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ThunderMate wrote:Now it looks like in the last 5 frames of the floater that Irene is moving due west. Does anyone else notice this or is this just me again? Fill in the first 7 blocks and watch the west and this is no wobble!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Looking at the microwave loop, the center appears to be treking right on nhc track. Convection outburst to west and sw of center give the illusion of a more westward motion.
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- Hyperstorm
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ThunderMate wrote:Now it looks like in the last 5 frames of the floater that Irene is moving due west. Does anyone else notice this or is this just me again? Fill in the first 7 blocks and watch the west and this is no wobble!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Yes, it has moved more toward a 270-280 over the past couple of hours, BUT the general heading is and will be WNW, with wobbles to the W and NW, thus WNW...
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Here's a McIdas image. I put the center around 27.5N/67.4W, which is well west of the NHC track. However, this may only represent a poor position estimate by the NHC earlier this morning. It's hard to find a center at night.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif
Last edited by wxman57 on Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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use http://www.goes.noaa.gov/srcheast.html
click "east hurricane sector" and chose what times you want... I'm saving a bunch of images and playing them in my own loop... use paint even to make a line between two images to see the movement.[/img]
click "east hurricane sector" and chose what times you want... I'm saving a bunch of images and playing them in my own loop... use paint even to make a line between two images to see the movement.[/img]
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wxman57 wrote:Here's a McIdas image. I put the center around 27.5N/67.4W, which is well west of the NHC track. However, this may only represent a poor position estimate by the NHC earlier this morning. It's hard to find a center at night.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif
still hard to tell, i would say 28N 66.7W.
Last edited by dwg71 on Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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wxman57 wrote:Here's a McIdas image. I put the center around 27.5N/67.4W, which is well west of the NHC track. However, this may only represent a poor position estimate by the NHC earlier this morning. It's hard to find a center at night.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif
It will be extremely helpful when recon reaches the system today and we can get 100% confirmation on the exact center.
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ridge and Irene's future path
I was just looking at a WV loop here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
I'm trying to figure something out. It appears to show the shortwave lifting rapidly off to the NE, and an E-W oriented ridge setting up from W of Bermuda all the way into the central US. Also, that upper low to the NE of the Bahamas is now sinking SW. Since air rotates counterclockwise around that low, shouldn't that work to pull Irene more westward in conjunction with the ridge to her North? Maybe I'm reading the WV imagery wrong, but I'd love for one of the experts on this board to comment on this to tell me what I'm missing. I suspect there has to be something given that all the models are forecasting a much more N and NE motion today than yesterday.
-Mike
I'm trying to figure something out. It appears to show the shortwave lifting rapidly off to the NE, and an E-W oriented ridge setting up from W of Bermuda all the way into the central US. Also, that upper low to the NE of the Bahamas is now sinking SW. Since air rotates counterclockwise around that low, shouldn't that work to pull Irene more westward in conjunction with the ridge to her North? Maybe I'm reading the WV imagery wrong, but I'd love for one of the experts on this board to comment on this to tell me what I'm missing. I suspect there has to be something given that all the models are forecasting a much more N and NE motion today than yesterday.
-Mike
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- wxman57
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Sometimes all it takes is for the cirrus to thin out a bit to allow a better center estimate. Here's a new image that appears to show the center almost 60 miles east of my earlier estimate. You can see the low clouds much better now. They appear to be spiraling into a point near 27.9N/66.4W. That's more in line with the latest NHC forecast track. So it looks like that ball of convection is west of the center, not over it.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif
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