TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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ThunderMate
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#2221 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:02 am

Now it looks like in the last 5 frames of the floater that Irene is moving due west. Does anyone else notice this or is this just me again? Fill in the first 7 blocks and watch the west and this is no wobble!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#2222 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:03 am

bmoreorless wrote:
I don't think this leftward turn is unexpected or indicative of a deviation from the 5 a.m. advisory.


I didn't say it was. I was giving the NHC props.
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#2223 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:08 am

ThunderMate wrote:Now it looks like in the last 5 frames of the floater that Irene is moving due west. Does anyone else notice this or is this just me again? Fill in the first 7 blocks and watch the west and this is no wobble!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Due west? I don't think so.
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#2224 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:08 am

ThunderMate wrote:Now it looks like in the last 5 frames of the floater that Irene is moving due west. Does anyone else notice this or is this just me again? Fill in the first 7 blocks and watch the west and this is no wobble!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Looking at the microwave loop, the center appears to be treking right on nhc track. Convection outburst to west and sw of center give the illusion of a more westward motion.
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#2225 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:08 am

ThunderMate wrote:Now it looks like in the last 5 frames of the floater that Irene is moving due west. Does anyone else notice this or is this just me again? Fill in the first 7 blocks and watch the west and this is no wobble!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Yes, it has moved more toward a 270-280 over the past couple of hours, BUT the general heading is and will be WNW, with wobbles to the W and NW, thus WNW...
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#2226 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:10 am

are you blind sma10? maybe not due west but definately westward.
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#2227 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:17 am

I think that the westward movment is an illusion due to cirrus outflow expanding westward. Ignore that and look way down to the surface for low cloud elements. That's not to say it isn't moving WNW vs. NW, however.
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#2228 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:19 am

Be interesting to see how far west she moves before we get the start of the next northerly jog.

She gained almost a degree on the more NW'erly jog.
Every bit of latitude she gains helps if a trough comes along down the road..
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#2229 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:19 am

Well then is it moving more west than at 5 am?
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#2230 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:21 am

ThunderMate wrote:Well then is it moving more west than at 5 am?


yes...and getting better organized (as the NHC likes to say)
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#2231 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:22 am

Here's a McIdas image. I put the center around 27.5N/67.4W, which is well west of the NHC track. However, this may only represent a poor position estimate by the NHC earlier this morning. It's hard to find a center at night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif
Last edited by wxman57 on Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2232 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:24 am

ThunderMate wrote:are you blind sma10? maybe not due west but definately westward.


Are you rude ThunderMate?

You asked whether or not it's moving due west. You then ADMIT that it's not moving due west and call me blind. What an idiot.
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#2233 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:24 am

use http://www.goes.noaa.gov/srcheast.html

click "east hurricane sector" and chose what times you want... I'm saving a bunch of images and playing them in my own loop... use paint even to make a line between two images to see the movement.[/img]
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#2234 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:26 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a McIdas image. I put the center around 27.5N/67.4W, which is well west of the NHC track. However, this may only represent a poor position estimate by the NHC earlier this morning. It's hard to find a center at night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif


still hard to tell, i would say 28N 66.7W.
Last edited by dwg71 on Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2235 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:27 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a McIdas image. I put the center around 27.5N/67.4W, which is well west of the NHC track. However, this may only represent a poor position estimate by the NHC earlier this morning. It's hard to find a center at night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif


It will be extremely helpful when recon reaches the system today and we can get 100% confirmation on the exact center.
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#2236 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:30 am

where does everyone think the center is? didn't they say they had a center? just asking?
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#2237 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:34 am

Does anybody have the AFWA estimates link page?
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ridge and Irene's future path

#2238 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:40 am

I was just looking at a WV loop here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

I'm trying to figure something out. It appears to show the shortwave lifting rapidly off to the NE, and an E-W oriented ridge setting up from W of Bermuda all the way into the central US. Also, that upper low to the NE of the Bahamas is now sinking SW. Since air rotates counterclockwise around that low, shouldn't that work to pull Irene more westward in conjunction with the ridge to her North? Maybe I'm reading the WV imagery wrong, but I'd love for one of the experts on this board to comment on this to tell me what I'm missing. I suspect there has to be something given that all the models are forecasting a much more N and NE motion today than yesterday.

-Mike
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#2239 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:44 am

Sometimes all it takes is for the cirrus to thin out a bit to allow a better center estimate. Here's a new image that appears to show the center almost 60 miles east of my earlier estimate. You can see the low clouds much better now. They appear to be spiraling into a point near 27.9N/66.4W. That's more in line with the latest NHC forecast track. So it looks like that ball of convection is west of the center, not over it.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif
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#2240 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:47 am

Yes, and Joe Bastardi also commented on how the High pressure ridge may deviate back westward blocking Irene to find an escape with another ridge to her north allowing a landfall in North Carolina. Any pro please comment?
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