TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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wxman57
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#2241 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:50 am

ThunderMate wrote:Yes, and Joe Bastardi also commented on how the High pressure ridge may deviate back westward blocking Irene to find an escape with another ridge to her north allowing a landfall in North Carolina. Any pro please comment?


Well, that's certainly a possibility, but it may not be a probability. Joe B. has a very strong bias toward forecasting every storm to hit the east U.S. coast. He's one of the biggest "people I disagree with" out there in that respect. I'd like to see his forecast track if he had customers with multi-billion dollar projects along the east coast. Would he tell them the same thing if it would cost them millions of dollars and AccuWeather a customer?

Now, I do like watching Joe every day, he's a character. But you have to watch out for that east coast bias.
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#2242 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:51 am

I'm not going to post on this thread anymore about Irene. I was looking for link for the AWFA estimates which I should of saved to my favorites, but I don't want to go through the 100+ pages. I don't have time to read a book this morning.
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#2243 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:55 am

yes but it wasn't just Joe B. saying this....the models he was using was even showing this also so is this still a possibility?
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well

#2244 Postby WXFIEND » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:57 am

I think the high will build back westward... but I'm not sure if it'll be far enough west to ensure a landfall, it may still recurve...
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#2245 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:57 am

wxman57 wrote:Sometimes all it takes is for the cirrus to thin out a bit to allow a better center estimate. Here's a new image that appears to show the center almost 60 miles east of my earlier estimate. You can see the low clouds much better now. They appear to be spiraling into a point near 27.9N/66.4W. That's more in line with the latest NHC forecast track. So it looks like that ball of convection is west of the center, not over it.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene85.gif


Bingo! I was about to post this. The center is on the EASTERN edge of the convection. There are signs there is some easterly shear going on as UL clouds are moving toward the west toward the east of the storm. It could be related to the pesky ULL that has been disrupting the storm over the past few days and is located to its south.

As more visible images come in, it will be easier to pinpoint exact coordinates, but if the current estimate is correct, there is no way the storm is a 65 mph storm and hurricane development may be delayed another 24 hours...
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#2246 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:58 am

QS had many uncontaimnated 50KT vectors this morning. 55Kt eems quite likely, unless it has weakened since then
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#2247 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:02 am

ThunderMate wrote:yes but it wasn't just Joe B. saying this....the models he was using was even showing this also so is this still a possibility?


Well...for the JB bashers that never give him any credit...here's what he said last Saturday and Sunday...

" My track on TC 9 takes it to near 30 north and 70 west next week at this time" and "My track has it near 30 north and between 65 and 70 a week from now."

...and this was when the NHC had it recurving east of Bermuda. So for those who are not going to be able to resist the temptation to jump in here about his current ideas...stew on that one a while (and he is wrong sometimes and gets bested by the NHC...a la Dennis...but he is also right sometimes and out performs them).
:lol:
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#2248 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:30 am

INTERESTING ?!?!?!

Image
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#2249 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:31 am

Just watched JB's video. It appears that his center estimate was about 120 miles too far west - toward the western part of the convection. We can see now that the center may be much farther east. Of course, it would help if recon would get there. The farther east position would significantly reduce the risk of an east coast landfall. Right now, I give it a 20% shot of reaching the east U.S. Coast. So all of you on the east coast better keep paying attention to Irene.
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#2250 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:33 am

HURAKAN wrote:INTERESTING ?!?!?!

Image


That was my point, Joe B. talks about every storm hitting the east coast, but he doesn't mention that his scenario may only have a 10% or 20% chance of happening. When AccuWeather really has to put out a forecast that could affect its customers, they go with the more likely track.
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#2251 Postby ThunderMate » Fri Aug 12, 2005 10:11 am

I really don't see where they are getting NW at 13 at? Wheres the center?
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#2252 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 12, 2005 10:35 am

ThunderMate wrote:I really don't see where they are getting NW at 13 at? Wheres the center?


gotta wait til recon gets in there finally to find out
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#2253 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:07 am

Uh, I think I can see the center now. It's right there in the open. Convection dropped off over the center and you can finally see it. Looks to be around 28.5N/67W.

Here's a highly zoomed-in Mcidas image.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene88.gif
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#2254 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:10 am

wxman57 wrote:Uh, I think I can see the center now. It's right there in the open. Convection dropped off over the center and you can finally see it. Looks to be around 28.5N/67W.

Here's a highly zoomed-in Mcidas image.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene88.gif


Note the tremendous buildup of convection on the southern edge of the center. Starting to look like an eye on visable satellite.
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#2255 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:14 am

sma10 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Uh, I think I can see the center now. It's right there in the open. Convection dropped off over the center and you can finally see it. Looks to be around 28.5N/67W.

Here's a highly zoomed-in Mcidas image.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene88.gif


Note the tremendous buildup of convection on the southern edge of the center. Starting to look like an eye on visable satellite.


Well, that's nowhere close to an eye. It's just convection around the center. Recon is on the way now. I think it'll find a 50-55kt storm with a pressure around 992mb or so.
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#2256 Postby StormWarning1 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:29 am

Even 50-55 knots may be gernerous. Invest 96 will soon pass this one in intensity if it keeps organizing like it has. Irene does not look as good as earlier this morning. Possibly Easterly shear is stonger than expected.
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#2257 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:29 am

wxman57 wrote:
sma10 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Uh, I think I can see the center now. It's right there in the open. Convection dropped off over the center and you can finally see it. Looks to be around 28.5N/67W.

Here's a highly zoomed-in Mcidas image.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene88.gif


Note the tremendous buildup of convection on the southern edge of the center. Starting to look like an eye on visable satellite.


Well, that's nowhere close to an eye. It's just convection around the center. Recon is on the way now. I think it'll find a 50-55kt storm with a pressure around 992mb or so.


It may not yet be an eye, but I respectfully disagree with your assessment that it is "nowhere close to" being an eye.
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#2258 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:39 pm

Here are some new images:

Close-up of Irene:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene89.gif

Irene satellite with 18Z GFS 400-700mb mean flow streamlines:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene91.gif

12Z Monday forecast of 400-700 mb mean flow stremlines from 12Z GFS:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene90.gif

Looks like Irene will be heading out to sea if the GFS is anywhere close to being right. I don't see any building ridge off the NE US coast as JB was mentioning.
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#2259 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:08 pm

Is that warm spot (the eye looking thing) Irene's center?
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#2260 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:29 pm

VORTEX message isn't out yet, but the flight level winds suggest that the center is IVO 28.5 N / 67.1 W...
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