west movement

[gatorcane]

yes its WNW but certainly not 300 anymore and it sure looks like it's bending more W drastically....I would be preparing anywhere from NC S. to N. Florida.

[dwg71]

if she ends up staying west and hitting GA,SC,NC, wow the NHC should be embarrassed

Its not moving west, its moving WNW - NW, around 290 to 300. Look at NHC discussion. Look at water vapor floater and shortwave floater, you can see the center a little easier. The convection building to the W and SW of the center gives the illusion of a western movement.

keep saying it enough times and maybe it will become the fish you want

I do WANT anything. It is what it is. Only here can the NHC come out with a NW heading at 11AM, and by 11:30 people are claiming its moving west and if you dont follow them instead of plot points and NHC, your labeled a wish caster. HA.

[StormWarning1]

I also see the WNW movement, about 300. The center is exposed. The convection over it is diminishiong. Irene really does not look all that good.

[storms in NC]

if she ends up staying west and hitting GA,SC,NC, wow the NHC should be embarrassed

Why They don't know any more than we do here.

[gatorcane]

that's probably the reason for the more Westerly movement.....as she weakens she moves more west and as she strengthens she wants to go poleward...now she is weakening some.

[RU4REAL]

winds are up to 65 now...she is strenghting.

[wxwatcher91]

that's probably the reason for the more Westerly movement.....as she weakens she moves more west and as she strengthens she wants to go poleward...now she is weakening some.

thats probably true... her cloud tops have warmed up a lot in the past few frames

[storms in NC]

if she ends up staying west and hitting GA,SC,NC, wow the NHC should be embarrassed

Its not moving west, its moving WNW - NW, around 290 to 300. Look at NHC discussion. Look at water vapor floater and shortwave floater, you can see the center a little easier. The convection building to the W and SW of the center gives the illusion of a western movement.

keep saying it enough times and maybe it will become the fish you want

I do WANT anything. It is what it is. Only here can the NHC come out with a NW heading at 11AM, and by 11:30 people are claiming its moving west and if you dont follow them instead of plot points and NHC, your labeled a wish caster. HA.

Like I told you in another post. They take it on a 12 hour average. If it stays on wnw movement you will see it on the 5:oo update

[sma10]

that's probably the reason for the more Westerly movement.....as she weakens she moves more west and as she strengthens she wants to go poleward...now she is weakening some.

Do you really think she is weakening?

[gatorcane]

the past couple of hours she has weakend. The cloud tops have warmed as shown by the water vapor and infrared loops.

[sma10]

the past couple of hours she has weakend. The cloud tops have warmed as shown by the water vapor and infrared loops.

Some tremendously strong storms are right now forming around the center

[BUD]

if she ends up staying west and hitting GA,SC,NC, wow the NHC should be embarrassed

I Know what you mean,a friend called me earliy this morning and told ALL local forcasters are saying fish!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

yes, I expect it to strengthen as it approaches the warm Gulf stream waters....

[sma10]

yes, I expect it to strengthen as it approaches the warm Gulf stream waters....

Well, you don't have to wait for it to strengthen because I believe it is strenghtening right now.

[gatorcane]

you can see the ridge building in from the water vapor loop. Over the past couple of hours you can see the oranges off of North Carolina (dry air) moving W and SW more and more....

this means a more WNW movement for Irene ....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

[gatorcane]

From the WV loop, also the trough to the NNE of Irene is passing her by...that caused the NW movement yesterday...look out to the NW and there is absolutely nothing that can cause Irene to turn out to sea...unless the Bermuda ridge moves east or Irene strenghtens enough to plow through the ridge; both scenarios I find highly unlikely at this point.

[gatorcane]

Another interesting observation from the WV loop is that the ULL off the SE coast of FL in the Bahamas is moving SW and Irene may be getting influenced by teh CC rotatin around this....

[gatorcane]

You can also see from the WV that the ULL over the northern Gulf coast was moving NNE and then over the past several hours is getting nudged west some...again showing the Bermuda ridge is building...

[gatorcane]

and finally one more observation is that Irene is beginning to elongate on an E-W axis....this usually indicates the direction a hurricane is about to take...so I would not be surprised if see a more W movement today...

[gatorcane]

check out the this loop with the NHC forecast points superimposed on Irene...it's going farther west of the forecast track by the minute:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html