TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dwg71]

That is .2N and .3W of NHC's 11AM point,that would suggest 300 heading.

[Sanibel]

It took me 3 looks but the center is slowing at 290 or thereabouts.

Look for a slow down in reaction to the convection shift.

I'm not sure how it will react track-wise to impacting this border, but we should see it progressively react during the day.

Simple recruve? Trapping under ridge?

[Coredesat]

12/1745 UTC 28.8N 67.4W T3.5/3.5 IRENE

SSD still says 55 knots/65 MPH.

[Sanibel]

Reconnaissance reports wide closed eye.

I think they said 996.


Looks like ridge isn't there.

[tallywx]

It took me 3 looks but the center is slowing at 290 or thereabouts.

Look for a slow down in reaction to the convection shift.

I'm not sure how it will react track-wise to impacting this border, but we should see it progressively react during the day.

Simple recruve? Trapping under ridge?

I like the points you make. It seems to be bumping up against a "border" to its north at the current time. Will be interesting to see how this evolves over the next few hours.

Also of note are the low-level clouds well to the NW of Irene (along its NHC forecasted path). If you run a loop, they're standing pretty stationary. Not aligned in any particular pattern, not moving with any defined "flow" in any direction. This could signal a weakening of steering patterns or one of those famous "wraparound ridges" as we saw last year, a la Frances and Jeanne.

[Sanibel]

TWC blended satellite makes it clear the convection shifted up and around west but the center never changed track at 290-95*


NOAA synoptic mission should get there in an hour...

[Wnghs2007]

18z Models


Bamms Suggests Loop de Loop

000
WHXX01 KWBC 121847
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050812 1800 050813 0600 050813 1800 050814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.4N 67.1W 29.4N 68.7W 30.4N 70.4W 31.8N 71.8W
BAMM 28.4N 67.1W 29.2N 68.6W 30.0N 70.0W 31.0N 71.4W
A98E 28.4N 67.1W 29.6N 68.9W 30.8N 70.1W 32.4N 70.6W
LBAR 28.4N 67.1W 29.4N 68.4W 30.3N 69.8W 31.4N 71.2W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 64KTS 65KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 64KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050814 1800 050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.5N 72.6W 36.4N 69.9W 35.9N 63.6W 33.9N 62.2W
BAMM 32.2N 72.3W 34.3N 71.9W 33.8N 69.8W 32.4N 69.8W
A98E 33.6N 70.4W 35.0N 68.2W 35.6N 64.4W 36.3N 58.3W
LBAR 32.5N 71.9W 34.8N 71.5W 36.3N 69.2W 37.5N 65.8W
SHIP 67KTS 67KTS 65KTS 61KTS
DSHP 67KTS 67KTS 65KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.4N LONCUR = 67.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 27.2N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 25.4N LONM24 = 62.9W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 50NM

[SunnyThoughts]

12z Euro looks interesting...sorry only saw the graphics on another site, can't post it, but im sure someone else here can if anyone is interested.

[WindRunner]

Interesting to note that they waited for the recon report, were they expecting a big change?

[Coredesat]

Again, the UKMET model is on drugs. It dissipates Irene in 48 hours:

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 66.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 12.08.2005 27.9N 66.4W WEAK

00UTC 13.08.2005 28.9N 68.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.08.2005 30.3N 69.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.08.2005 31.5N 70.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Ivanhater]

you see, this is what i was afraid of, before the arguments were hit land or recurve....now we have possible stall or loop.....darn you irene!!

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing stabs of convection running towards the eye. Could be an intensification phase maybe...

[deltadog03]

BTW...its been moving around 280 (at best) closer to 275 since last advisory....

[RU4REAL]

is that n s e or w ?

[WindRunner]

W, 270 is due west.

[deltadog03]

is that n s e or w ?

almost due WEST!!!! it moved like .1N and .4W

[clfenwi]

is that n s e or w ?

almost due WEST!!!! it moved like .1N and .4W

Do the trig on that... (rise of .1 over run of .4 ... take the arctangent of that and you get 15° so the heading from that change is 285° (and it's actually (very slightly) more north than that since a degree of longitude is shorter than a degree of latitude as you head north.

[Air Force Met]

is that n s e or w ?

almost due WEST!!!! it moved like .1N and .4W

Again...so that those on this thread can see...it's not almost due west. The movement...from the advisory position and the recon is 297. It's up .15 and over .28...not up .1 and over .4. The rounding off (which you can't do because recon is in minutes and so you must go down to the 1/100th of a degree) messes it up. It is moving closer to NW (only has to go 4 degrees to the right to be 301...thus NW) than west (it would have to go 17 degrees to the left to be 280...which is considered west).

Due west is 270...and it is 27 degrees to the right of due west. I know there are a lot of you that don't want to hear that...but that's the truth.

[deltadog03]

i tell you what...we will see in the end game...correct or not...good?

[Frank P]

first of all you can't see the center of the system on the vis loop at the end of the animination phase... if you animinate it one frame at a time, and follow the center on the frames you can see, at the end of the loop the center is completely covered with convection, but to me if you extrapolate out what you could see to where yout think its going its still moving around 300 degrees... if I'm wrong I'm wrong, and that is always a distinct possibility .... if anything it might be just a tad se from the second forecast point on the map... I certain do not mean to upset anyone just calling it like I see it... then again we'll all know shortly per the NHC...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html