EATS OUT on August 12, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Eastern Atlantic Tropical Summary - EATS OUT on August 12, 2005


<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/eats20050812.jpg">

The beginning of the end?? Perhaps the large area of moist air
moving off the coast of Africa will end the regime of super-dry air
that has dominated the eastern Atlantic for the last few weeks.
Buried in that area of moisture is a new tropical wave, headed west.
I don't expect development of this area as is moves toward the
dry air.

The tropical wave near 40W is currently Invest 96L, and will likely
become a tropical depression in the next 48-72 hours. Quicksat
images show a fairly well organized circulation in this wave.

With the MJO becoming more favorable (there's a thread on MJO),
and moisture trying to return to the basin, we may see the real
Cape Verde season about to spin up. Climatology tells us its
that time anyway..... stay tuned!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Usually by this time of year the area near the Cape Verde Islands becomes very active. By the first few weeks of September, this area could be a hot bed for development. I haven't checked on sea surface temps in this area as of late, but last I checked it was well above average, which adds to the suspicion that more cape verde systems are possible. If that drier air becomes less of a factor, that will also help fuel more activity.

What's more amazing is where we are now compared to the '04 season. We are down to the I Irene storm now. At this time last year we were down to the C storm Charley.

Jim

[WindRunner]

Looks like that one wave will sacrifice itself so that all of its siblings behind it can develop and rob us of our sleep for the next two months. Isn't that sweet?

[dhweather]

It's touching - the sacrificial wave....

[mobilebay]

I love the title!!!