TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Sanibel]

Somewhere near 295* and slowing. But my impression is it notched a degree or two west.


What is more important is the convection is right over the center and looking dense.

[tallywx]

Of course, what matters more right now is not its current movement but whether it starts bending off to the north over the next day per the NHC track.

If she stays on her present course of 300, which a lot of you are crying about as being so far to the north, she smashes into the NC/SC border.

So no worries. She doesn't have to bend towards the west. If she stays on her bearing, you all get your landfall. The key is whether she starts bending towards the right.

[wxwatcher91]

is that n s e or w ?

almost due WEST!!!! it moved like .1N and .4W

.1N and .4W would be 284* ***WNW***

EDIT: sorry that would round to WNW not W

[KeyLargoDave]

Did a markup of the vis sat from this afternoon when the center became apparent (non-scientific analysis). This is the 18:15 UTC visible loop at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html. My guess from this at 19:15 is 67.5/28.7

[tallywx]

is that n s e or w ?

almost due WEST!!!! it moved like .1N and .4W

.1N and .4W would be 284* W

To save Air Force Met some effort, I'm going to paste what he wrote not half an hour ago to drill the concept home:

"Again...so that those on this thread can see...it's not almost due west. The movement...from the advisory position and the recon is 297. It's up .15 and over .28...not up .1 and over .4. The rounding off (which you can't do because recon is in minutes and so you must go down to the 1/100th of a degree) messes it up. It is moving closer to NW (only has to go 4 degrees to the right to be 301...thus NW) than west (it would have to go 17 degrees to the left to be 280...which is considered west).

Due west is 270...and it is 27 degrees to the right of due west. I know there are a lot of you that don't want to hear that...but that's the truth."

[tallywx]

Did a markup of the vis sat from this afternoon when the center became apparent (non-scientific analysis). This is the 18:15 UTC visible loop at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html. My guess from this at 19:15 is 67.5/28.7

Why are we "guessing" where the center is when we have a recon. fix?

[superfly]

There's no need to guess, just look at recon data. 28 deg 27 min N
067 deg 05 min W.

[Sanibel]

Dvorak looks like a cane...

[wxwatcher91]

is that n s e or w ?

almost due WEST!!!! it moved like .1N and .4W

.1N and .4W would be 284* W

To save Air Force Met some effort, I'm going to paste what he wrote not half an hour ago to drill the concept home:

"Again...so that those on this thread can see...it's not almost due west. The movement...from the advisory position and the recon is 297. It's up .15 and over .28...not up .1 and over .4. The rounding off (which you can't do because recon is in minutes and so you must go down to the 1/100th of a degree) messes it up. It is moving closer to NW (only has to go 4 degrees to the right to be 301...thus NW) than west (it would have to go 17 degrees to the left to be 280...which is considered west).

Due west is 270...and it is 27 degrees to the right of due west. I know there are a lot of you that don't want to hear that...but that's the truth."

sorry I just got home. all I did was the calculation for the measurement posted

[KeyLargoDave]

"We" are not guessing, I made an estimate based on imagery -- hadn't seen the vortex msg while I was working on that. Obviously, it's a certain fix now like you said.

[clfenwi]

Dvorak looks like a cane...

I don't think that is the case with where the center is located at relative to the convection.... I believe it would have to be more centrally located to get the numbers up to 4.0 ...

[Sanibel]

The outflow is good on 3 sides...

[du1st]

looks like irene may be a hurricane alex

[shaggy]

thinking that the GIV info will be the determining factor and whatever the models say after that data gets in will have to be more trusted so will sit back and watch to see what happens from here.Feeling better here in NC now though

[BensonTCwatcher]

Funny how when a storm gets close the threads go crazy huh? Well Iv'e been posting in this one for 115 pages so what the heck....Is this the right one to talk about where Irene is heading???

Anyway, take a look at the ridge 3 hrs ago and most recent ( once you have clicked on both, go back and forth) tough call on the upcoming track for me as a non-met. 3 hrs previous to that Irene looked like recurve all the way around the higher ridge over bermuda. I am not as sure now anyway... Irene is a tricky lass

oops link...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

[Sanibel]

West Atlantic isn't supporting red tops...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Guess I should have stated a critical factor of the western portion of the ridge has shifted east vs northeast. The trough is tilting more NE to SW. I hope what I am seeing is not a re-building ridge in response to the ULL to the SW packing it's bags

[WindRunner]

Now that would be throwing a bolt in the forecast, I hope you're right too (in not seeing that).

[Air Force Met]

dt is now on radionhc saying "i dont care how many models show it busting through the ridge, it WILL NOT recurve out to sea"

I wonder if he is still sticking to that?

[deltadog03]

im sticking too it...i want to see what data is put into the models for the 00z runs...