what an irony

[AussieMark]

NOAA and Dr. Gray have issued a serious upgrade in the number, frequency and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms this year - but, where is the activity? It's not that early anymore - tomorrow is August 12th and Saturday will be the anniversary of Charley. This season better pick up pretty soon - apparently, the experts know something for later in the season that I don't - but, it needs to build fairly soon or I'll be a disbeliever. What is going to change? At this hour, Irene is struggling again but is in is very warm SST's with lower shear. What's going on with this season?

What's going on with this record chasing season?....absolutely nothing. We're still on a record pace (most named storms ever BEFORE September 1st are 12).....I believe Irene could become a major hurricane and impact the southeast coast....and already see signs on the horizon that "all hurricane h@ll" is about to be unleashed.

Look at it this way friend....we're just now getting to the point (August 15th) when I normally start expecting an increase in tropical cyclone activity; the time in August when I first begin to normally look for potential major hurricanes. This year, there has already been two borderline cat-4/5 hurricanes (both landfalling as major hurricanes), and nine named storms....and the "real" major hurricane season is just now BEGINNING!!

You refer to Charley last August 13th....do you realize that Charley was the EARLIEST in the season landfalling major hurricane in Florida peninsula history? August major hurricanes are rare in central and southern Florida; climatologically October is far more likely to spawn a landfalling major hurricane into SoFla than August. It's honestly not even time for major Florida peninsula hurricanes yet.....that is normally September 1st through October 20th (hurricane Andrew was the first August landfalling major hurricane in SoFla since 1949....and only the 2nd since 1900 (and Charley the 3rd; only 3 in 105 years).

Yes, it's been "sorta" quiet the past couple weeks...and even during the "lull", we still witnessed two named storms. We're soon coming into a more favorable MJO pattern PLUS the normal climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.....I honestly expect bloody h#ll to erupt in the next 10-14 days and last well into October; and it could well rival or even exceed what we witnessed a decade ago. In 1995, the continental U.S. was only slammed by one major cane (Opal), with Luis and Marilyn devastating the northeast Caribbean. We've (U.S.A.) already been struck by 120 mph cat-3 Dennis....Irene has a good chance IMO of being U.S. major landfalling hurricane #2 of this season; and lord only knows what is coming down the pike....as we enter an ominous time of year when powerful hurricanes aren't rarities as Dennis and Emily were

Just my 0.02¢ worth...

PW

actually i wanna make a very small correct to your statement. Hurricane Andrew was not the first landfall of a major hurricane in south florida since 1949. Actually you forgot about Donna in 1960(hit extreme northern keys and southern tip of FL peninsula), Isbell in 1964 and the unforgettable Betsy in 1965 which devestated the northern key and if the Keys are not part of south florida then I wonder what they are. lol

<RICKY>

Perry means in the month of August I think

[gatorcane]

I'm still thinking September could be a very busy month....

[SouthernWx]

actually i wanna make a very small correct to your statement. Hurricane Andrew was not the first landfall of a major hurricane in south florida since 1949. Actually you forgot about Donna in 1960(hit extreme northern keys and southern tip of FL peninsula), Isbell in 1964 and the unforgettable Betsy in 1965 which devestated the northern key and if the Keys are not part of south florida then I wonder what they are. lol

<RICKY>

Friend, please re-read my post before making corrections....

Donna was NOT an August hurricane....NEITHER was Betsy. Not only did Isbell occur in October, but at landfall along the SW Florida coast it only had sustained winds of 90-100 mph; WAS NOT a major landfalling hurricane...regardless of what the Unisys site says (I've found numerous intensity errors on that hurricane archives site). I researched Isbell using official NHC information.

As I stated in my previous post...there have ONLY been three major AUGUST landfalling hurricanes into south Florida since 1900.

PW

1) Aug 1949
2) Andrew
3) Charley

[Derecho]

Does anyone else beside me notice that EVERY SINGLE SEASON this same thing comes up?

Yep, pretty much every season since 1998 you get a time period with "WAAAH THE SEASON IS DEAD GRAY WILL BUST HIGH HORRIBLY..."

However, this is the first time I've seen it with an active storm in the Atlantic going on at the same time, which is mind-boggling.

Problem is a fairly large component of it has been trollers, typically (a lot of people don't understand what a troll is; it's not some maniac spamming a board with completely outrageous stuff; it can also be someone fairly calmly talking about a dead season, to provoke a rise out of people, as there are few things that will get a longer thread with more outraged replies than suggesting a season might be dead) but it's difficult to tell the trollers from the merely stupid.

[sma10]

it's difficult to tell the trollers from the merely stupid.

Ha! That's a good one.

Seriously, though, all someone has to do is click on Unisys site and check how the Atlantic has consistently been very active the past decade from late August on.

Now, if we had an el nino coming on, or water temps were lower than average or some other horrible indicator, perhaps you can make an argument that the season will die. But there's nothing to indicate this.

I see a lot of people saying there's no way we're going to top 15 named storms by year's end. I'd challenge that bet in a heartbeat.

[bevgo]

Does anyone else beside me notice that EVERY SINGLE SEASON this same thing comes up?

Yep, pretty much every season since 1998 you get a time period with "WAAAH THE SEASON IS DEAD GRAY WILL BUST HIGH HORRIBLY..."

However, this is the first time I've seen it with an active storm in the Atlantic going on at the same time, which is mind-boggling.

Problem is a fairly large component of it has been trollers, typically (a lot of people don't understand what a troll is; it's not some maniac spamming a board with completely outrageous stuff; it can also be someone fairly calmly talking about a dead season, to provoke a rise out of people, as there are few things that will get a longer thread with more outraged replies than suggesting a season might be dead) but it's difficult to tell the trollers from the merely stupid.

I was laughing because this is so true every year. It reminds me of the "season is a dud" threads. IMHO I think we are going to get really busy soon as we do almost every year and everyone will be saying things like wow we really need some sleep--LOL

[Rieyeuxs]

I don't think many people are disputing that we have had an already record-breaking season, and I'm certainly not -removed- a major hurricane hit for anyone.

My question/comment is that the peak season is now upon us and it's more like June now. I'll give you Irene, but the new invest doesn't look all that promising (I haven't looked at the lastest info there, I'll grant you that). My comment is that we've kept hearing "wait until August" and August is here and now this lull. And not much looks like coming out of the immediate pipline. You know us immediate people, it's always "what are you doing for us lately?"

I know that things should be popping soon, but any hints on when the lid's coming off?

[sma10]

I don't think many people are disputing that we have had an already record-breaking season, and I'm certainly not -removed- a major hurricane hit for anyone.

My question/comment is that the peak season is now upon us and it's more like June now. I'll give you Irene, but the new invest doesn't look all that promising (I haven't looked at the lastest info there, I'll grant you that). My comment is that we've kept hearing "wait until August" and August is here and now this lull. And not much looks like coming out of the immediate pipline. You know us immediate people, it's always "what are you doing for us lately?"

I know that things should be popping soon, but any hints on when the lid's coming off?

The NHC said the invest could form into a TD within the next day or two.

Also, once the bulk of the season is upon us, don't expect a new named storm every single day--it's not going to happen. It will be a busy enough season if we only get a new one every week. Irene formed the first week of August and if this new invest develops, we'll have Jose the 2nd week of August.

Have patience. And also realize that no matter how busy the season may be we're not going to have 35 or 40 storms

[Ivanhater]

I don't think many people are disputing that we have had an already record-breaking season, and I'm certainly not -removed- a major hurricane hit for anyone.

My question/comment is that the peak season is now upon us and it's more like June now. I'll give you Irene, but the new invest doesn't look all that promising (I haven't looked at the lastest info there, I'll grant you that). My comment is that we've kept hearing "wait until August" and August is here and now this lull. And not much looks like coming out of the immediate pipline. You know us immediate people, it's always "what are you doing for us lately?"

I know that things should be popping soon, but any hints on when the lid's coming off?

peak of the season is not until the 2nd week of september, we are in ramp up mode

[mobilebay]

there are no major Cape Verde waves coming off Africa that will develop anytime soon AND even if one did it would take about 2 weeks to reach the U.S...basically the CV season is for about another 4-6 weeks and that is it....it's looking like we won't hit the numbers that Dr. Gray predicted..not even close...

an active early season usually means a quiet later season.

I've been reading your posts and you have been down talking this season since day one. Back off, we are WAY ahead of climo. In, fact we have never been on the I storm this Early. This is getting ridiculous!

[Derecho]

My question/comment is that the peak season is now upon us

No it isn't; that's the whole point. The average seasonal peak is mid-September.

For whatever reason, it's proven impossible over the years, and I've tried, lord how I've tried, to convince a certain segment of people that the peak of the Atlantic season is September, not August, and that actually in an average season, and in many very active seasons. the first two weeks of August are pretty dead.

They typical CV season doesn't even START till August 15.

But no amount of links, graphs, etc. will convince people that September is the peak of the season, not August, I've found.

Thus, there's a group of people convinced that in a "normal" tropical season, in the first week of August you should be seeing a CV "parade of storms" (3-4 at once) and if there isn't there's something wrong.

I have no idea why that is. Perhaps because people think of August as Summer, and September as Fall, or that August is hotter than September and thus they get fixated on that and figure there should be more tropical activity in August (having no concept that due to heating lag SSTs in the Atlantic are hotter in September than in August, and more importantly, there's less shear in the Atlantic in September than in August.)

[sma10]

My question/comment is that the peak season is now upon us

No it isn't; that's the whole point. The average seasonal peak is mid-September.

For whatever reason, it's proven impossible over the years, and I've tried, lord how I've tried, to convince a certain segment of people that the peak of the Atlantic season is September, not August, and that actually in an average season, and in many very active seasons. the first two weeks of August are pretty dead.

They typical CV season doesn't even START till August 15.

But no amount of links, graphs, etc. will convince people that September is the peak of the season, not August, I've found.

Thus, there's a group of people convinced that in a "normal" tropical season, in the first week of August you should be seeing a CV "parade of storms" (3-4 at once) and if there isn't there's something wrong.

I have no idea why that is. Perhaps because people think of August as Summer, and September as Fall, or that August is hotter than September and thus they get fixated on that and figure there should be more tropical activity in August (having no concept that due to heating lag SSTs in the Atlantic are hotter in September than in August, and more importantly, there's less shear in the Atlantic in September than in August.)

It's the same story every year, Derecho.

But the REAL question is, which is more annoying -- The threads that ask "Why is the season so dead?" OR the threads of false exasperation ("My goodness the tropics are so busy! I wish the tropical storms would stop forming so I can have a break...")

[johngaltfla]

Lack of activity? Uh, it's early, IMHO. I do remember in 1995 I think, 5 storms churning at once in one week.

If we get 5 in one week, say the end of August, that will put us at Maria or Ophelia possibly.

Let's not rush things, let's hope for record fish. Becuase with the weather, you never know if the record will be set in the middle of the Atlantic, or (worse) the middle of the GOM....

[mobilebay]

My question/comment is that the peak season is now upon us

No it isn't; that's the whole point. The average seasonal peak is mid-September.

For whatever reason, it's proven impossible over the years, and I've tried, lord how I've tried, to convince a certain segment of people that the peak of the Atlantic season is September, not August, and that actually in an average season, and in many very active seasons. the first two weeks of August are pretty dead.

They typical CV season doesn't even START till August 15.

But no amount of links, graphs, etc. will convince people that September is the peak of the season, not August, I've found.

Thus, there's a group of people convinced that in a "normal" tropical season, in the first week of August you should be seeing a CV "parade of storms" (3-4 at once) and if there isn't there's something wrong.

I have no idea why that is. Perhaps because people think of August as Summer, and September as Fall, or that August is hotter than September and thus they get fixated on that and figure there should be more tropical activity in August (having no concept that due to heating lag SSTs in the Atlantic are hotter in September than in August, and more importantly, there's less shear in the Atlantic in September than in August.)

Derocho, I've been reading your posts for years ( on other boards) and though I rarely agree with you. This time you are CORRECT. This is your best post ever. You are correct on every word.

[Ixolib]

For the deadheads, perhaps this might become their logo of choice...