Sorry I haven't been writing advisories for the last day, comp problems and been a bit busy.
Tropical Storm Irene Advisory 33
2:00 PM PDT Aug 12 2005 (5:00 PM EDT or 21Z Aug 12 2005)
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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.
Please remember...tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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Recon just went in and found flight level winds of 75 kt and a minimum pressure of 997 mb. Thus the initial intensity is set to 60 kt...but that could be an underestimate...and Irene could already be a minimal hurricane now. Irene continues to strengthen and if it is not already a hurricane...then it could become one later tonight or tomorrow. Thereafter...a cool water eddy formed by Franklin and Harvey could stand in the path of Irene. And...after that...cooler waters off the coast of North Carolina and possible increasing vertical wind shear would impact Irene at the lather end of the period. As a result...no strengthening is forecast after 36 hours...and the forecast does not call for Irene to strengthen beyond a category 1 hurricane.
As implied earlier...I expect Irene to stay offshore. The ridge is weaker than originally forecast...and the models continue to shift to the right. The track will be on the left edge of the model guidance envelope. Interests from the Carolinas to New England and the Canadian maritimes should still continue to monitor Irene...though landfall is looking less likely now. After 72 hours...steering currents are forecast to weaken...so slow movement is indicated after 72 hours. Beyond that...near the end of the forecast period...westerlies are forecast to impact Irene...steering it away from the U.S.
Forecaster Tang
Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 28.7N 67.5W 60 kt
12 hr 29.5N 68.7W 70 kt
24 hr 30.3N 70.1W 75 kt
36 hr 31.4N 71.7W 80 kt
48 hr 32.8N 73.1W 80 kt
72 hr 34.8N 73.6W 80 kt
96 hr 35.8N 73.6W 80 kt
120 hr 37.1N 71.1W 75 kt
A few notes:
No track map today.
This will be my last advisory for Irene. I know some people will be cheering, but unfortunately for them, if 96L develops, look for me to be busy once again.
Comments and suggestions welcomed as always.
