INVEST 96L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say going from almost nothing to a system with outflow/inflow. In a well defined LLC with in 12 hours a system that is pulling its self together pretty fast. I still say 11pm it will be a depression but the nhc will upgrade when they get visible.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


Also convection should start firing soon.

[fci]

Re: jason0509's post

It's still too early to say, but, I'd say that the season so far (with the exception of Emily and Dennis) is turning out statistically as forecast, but not as forecast when it comes to the increasing number of recurving systems.

If the disturbance does recurve into the trough, then that would amount to four consecutive Atlantic systems (Franklin, Harvey, Irene and possibly Jose, not counting Gert's short lifespan in the Gulf) that have not made landfall - I wonder if there is a record being set in that category!

Frank

Well, lets set the record.
A TON of storms and the fewest making landfall.
I am all for that!

[floridahurricaneguy]

So another fish its look like? What a exciting season, well except for Dennis and maybe Emily but I mostly track usa stuff. Maybe next couple weeks will get more active. Not that I want devastation but tracking fish gets borin.
Matt

[Deenac813]

Didnt we have this same conversation last week??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at Cimss SAL maps shows that it is weaking fast. The Eastern Atltanic which was dark Red 24 hours ago is now showing lighter colors. To the north of this system it is also become more favable. Lets see if it can keep getting more favable. I think by tomarrow morning we will have deep convection=depression.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 12z Gfdl shows a very powerful hurricane. It could happen since the SAL could be weaking. I see a more developed system on satellite over the last hour or so. Convection is trying to organize near its center.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Scorpion]

My call : TD at 11, TS at 5, Cat 2 by Sunday

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L



INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 12



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 11.8 42.3 270./11.1

6 11.9 43.2 278./ 9.0

12 12.2 44.1 289./ 9.0

18 12.4 44.9 286./ 7.9

24 13.0 45.5 312./ 8.2

30 13.4 45.9 325./ 5.9

36 14.2 46.2 332./ 8.1

42 14.9 46.7 327./ 8.0

48 15.6 47.1 330./ 9.0

54 16.3 47.7 323./ 8.3

60 16.9 48.2 315./ 8.4

66 17.7 48.8 321./ 9.3

72 18.4 49.5 318./ 9.7

78 19.1 50.1 318./ 8.6

84 19.8 50.8 315./10.4

90 20.5 51.5 315./ 8.8

96 21.2 52.2 317./ 9.9

102 21.8 52.9 313./ 8.9

108 22.5 53.7 309./10.3

114 23.2 54.6 309./10.8

120 24.1 55.5 313./12.4

126 24.9 56.3 316./11.2

[Ivanhater]

looking REALLY good

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[superfly]

My prediction is TD by 11PM, TS by 11AM tomorrow, cane by 11AM Sunday

[wxmann_91]

Not until 2 PM tomorrow at the earliest, they wait until visibles to upgrade a system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say 11am when theres enough visible upgraded to tropical depression 10. Then tropical storm by 5pm.

I say it will be a hurricane by Monday at 5pm.

[Hyperstorm]

Just got home for the day and find almost 10 pages of Invest 96L!

The system will NOT be upgraded to a tropical depression at 11pm. Be sure about that. The system hasn't even gotten T-numbers and once it does, it usually takes 12 or more hours to upgrade. Tomorrow at the earliest for depression formation.

Regarding the track of Invest 96L, I still stand by my comments earlier this morning on Page 1 of this thread. There is currently a trough dropping fairly quickly southward just south of 20N (this morning it was just north of 20N) and near 50W. This trough will be the MAIN steering factor for this system.

There are TWO possibilities:

1) The system stays fairly shallow (weak, i.e. weak TS, TD, TW) and heads in a WNW heading toward the islands with a fairly STRONG shearing environment. This will keep the storm weak and sheared, which would not pose a significant threat toward the islands in terms of intensity.

2) The system strengthens fairly rapidly and moves NW toward the weakness (trough) and misses the islands while it gains strength.

The thing is that the trough WILL stay there for the next few days, so the forecast is fairly easy for this storm. It will eventually be sheared even if it moves NW, but at least it wouldn't affect the islands.

Right now, the system is slowly, but steadily becoming organized. The only thing that is keeping it from being called a depression is deep convection near the center. Outflow is good (for the time being, but that will change) and SSTs are warm. The only inhibiting factor RIGHT NOW is the SAL. Later on, it will be wind shear.

Until I see deeper convection with this system, I won't comment on which possibility is the most likely. Convection should develop tonight, but depending on the amount of SAL that is intruded in the storm, it could be strong or relatively moderate.

That being said, even if it moves toward the islands, it will do so as a weak system (TS, TD) because it will be in a shearing environment...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The lower level organizion is the most important thing. You can have a blob of convection has big as the gulf of mexico. But with out a LLC/low level center you don't have a cyclone. This has everything but a large area of convection. In also the SAL is decreasing. So I expect over the next 12 to 24 hours a fairly favable enviroment for this to develop the deep convection.

I say 11am when the first visible comes out.

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 130018
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050813 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 0000 050813 1200 050814 0000 050814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 42.9W 12.7N 44.6W 13.6N 45.8W 14.5N 46.6W
BAMM 12.1N 42.9W 12.7N 44.4W 13.5N 45.4W 14.3N 46.1W
A98E 12.1N 42.9W 12.3N 44.6W 12.6N 46.4W 13.2N 48.2W
LBAR 12.1N 42.9W 12.9N 44.6W 14.2N 45.8W 15.5N 46.9W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 0000 050816 0000 050817 0000 050818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 47.3W 17.5N 48.9W 20.1N 51.2W 23.1N 53.6W
BAMM 14.8N 46.7W 15.8N 48.5W 16.6N 51.5W 17.4N 55.9W
A98E 13.9N 49.9W 15.7N 53.0W 17.6N 56.1W 19.8N 58.9W
LBAR 16.7N 47.8W 19.8N 50.4W 23.9N 54.6W 28.2N 58.0W
SHIP 53KTS 57KTS 59KTS 63KTS
DSHP 53KTS 57KTS 59KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 42.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 41.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[clfenwi]

12/2345 UTC 12.2N 42.6W T1.0/1.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean

[WindRunner]

Well, 1.0 isn't saying much for upping, but that's OK. Our streak doesn't need a new storm to continue for another week or so.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

On the 22 of August this streak will be broke. Then intill the end of August 3 more cyclones formed after then.

Also I would guest based on low level organizion that should be close to 1.5/1.5. I will wait to see what Afwa says.

[Hyperstorm]

Another thing I wanted to point out before I log off is that Irene will have a lot to do with the track of this system, believe it or not.

If Irene pulls northward fairly quickly, the trough just south of 20N and near 50W will sink southward and have much more effect on the storm, in terms of intensity and track, BUT if Irene stalls or meanders around for a couple of days before lifting...the trough will NOT have as much of an influence on the storm and it may even allow the storm to remain organized, without any type of shearing.

The possibilities I mentioned above were accounting on a steady course northward of Irene WITHOUT a slow-down or stall. If it happens, everything I mentioned will have to be re-written.

It will definitely be interesting because if that happens, we could have a stronger storm heading toward the northern islands, than what I could have expected...

[WindRunner]

August 22, I wouldn't agree after looking at long-range GFS (don't laugh too hard now). It develops (and quickly disappates) 96L as it moves just north of the islands. It then develops two more systems, the first showing up around August 21 (and becoming major hurricane and fish, somehow cutting through one of the strongest highs forecast this season) and the second one right behind it. Yeah, long-range, salt, laugh, doesn't work, but it's better than sheer guessing, unless you have some reason for the 22nd that I haven't heard about.