storms in NC wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70422
thats not dt, that is derek ortt
GFS Underdoes the ridge
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gkrangers
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storms in NC
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DT has already made hints that he will be bailing on the landfall scenario, though he hasn't made it official yet.
DT will probably end up with a big bust on this one, and he does usually admit to it as well when he does, unlike some others out there.
EDIT: DT just said that he will wait another 24hrs before changing, but after would admit if things don't change, and have a lengthy post about what went wrong, lessons learned, etc.
DT will probably end up with a big bust on this one, and he does usually admit to it as well when he does, unlike some others out there.
EDIT: DT just said that he will wait another 24hrs before changing, but after would admit if things don't change, and have a lengthy post about what went wrong, lessons learned, etc.
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irene reminds me of felix sort of with the weird trajectory towards the coast.Not the same but similiar even with the possible loop that some models show.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199506.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199506.asp
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GIV finds more ridging to the north of the system with another ridge coming in to fill in and yet the storm at its meager state is suppose to bulldoze right thru the ridge????????
A shortwave trough has moved eastward off the U.S.
East Coast and a shortwave ridge over the eastern Ohio Valley is
moving eastward to take the place of that trough. In the short term
...This should build or at least maintain the existing ridge to the
north of Irene...which may cause a little more westward motion than
forecast for the next 24 hours or so. After that...all the models
agree that Irene will erode the ridge and move slowly northward
through the ridge between 70-72w longitude...and then turn
east-northeastward by 72 hours. However...given more ridge showing
up in the synoptic dropsonde data...there may be a westward shift
in the 00z model guidance. For this advisory...though...the
official track will remain close to the previous forecast track
leaves more questions than answers if you ask me.like how much of a shift to the left might the models make?
A shortwave trough has moved eastward off the U.S.
East Coast and a shortwave ridge over the eastern Ohio Valley is
moving eastward to take the place of that trough. In the short term
...This should build or at least maintain the existing ridge to the
north of Irene...which may cause a little more westward motion than
forecast for the next 24 hours or so. After that...all the models
agree that Irene will erode the ridge and move slowly northward
through the ridge between 70-72w longitude...and then turn
east-northeastward by 72 hours. However...given more ridge showing
up in the synoptic dropsonde data...there may be a westward shift
in the 00z model guidance. For this advisory...though...the
official track will remain close to the previous forecast track
leaves more questions than answers if you ask me.like how much of a shift to the left might the models make?
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JamesFromMaine2
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Derek Ortt wrote:it does provide somewhat less confidence in a turn as early as they are indicating
That was about my forecast...I said earlier in the day that my path was about 1 degree west of the 5PM track...out to about 72-73 west. With it slowing...I may be a little too far west as it will give the ridge time to be eroded.
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