INVEST 96L

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #181 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:59 pm

Thats when 1995 took the lead in number of storms.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #182 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:10 pm

Here's something for ya'll... http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

This is the checklist that the US Navy uses before issuing a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on a system. It can help when "estimating" if a system will be upgraded soon or not.

WindRunner · #183 Postby **WindRunner** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:13 pm

OK, I haven't followed the 95 to 05 comparison closely, but I can see your logic with it.

Well, I counted and got 16 of the points, guess it's a little ways off for now. I like that "Tropical disturbance is within 72 hours of a DOD resource." line. Shows just what's important.

#184 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:23 pm

QS of 20:43

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #185 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:25 pm

It appears to have a closed LLC. In with some area of 40 knots.

wxmann_91 · #186 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:26 pm

Well, I think Hyperstorm has a point about 96L having a bleak future.

Look at these shear maps: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

ULL's and troughs are covering the area, and there is extensive shear in the GOM, Caribbean, and much of the Atlantic. The only area with little shear is the area just ESE of the Lesser Antilles, where 96L is heading too, but after that it has a lot of shear to contend with.

And, the area south of the CV Islands has about 30-40 kt shear. Not condusive for CV development.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #187 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:28 pm

Irene just made it through deep SAL with 30 to 40 knot shear. This has a weaking SAL to the north with 5 to 10 knot shear. With at the worst case 25 knots.

That quickscat shows a Close LLC with 40 knot flags to the northeast quad.

I would say this has a better chance then Irene did.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #188 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:31 pm

WindRunner wrote:Well, I counted and got 16 of the points, guess it's a little ways off for now. I like that "Tropical disturbance is within 72 hours of a DOD resource." line. Shows just what's important.

Well, the JTWC or any other military meteorological branch is not here for the public's use. TCFAs are not for the public nor are their advisories. That is why the "Tropical disturbance is within 72 hours of a DOD resource" line is there.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #189 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:33 pm

#190 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:12 pm

this is not an official forcast

if we get a blow up of deep persis. convection and the QS show a closed circulation tomorrow by 5 pm we should have at least a TD.

#191 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:16 pm

96L has a well-defined circulation, to say the least!!

Derek Ortt · #192 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:31 pm

this system should be classified as at least a tropical depression. Afterall, a TW Irene was carried as a TD and a TS for about 3 days. 96L meets the criterion far more than Irene did for classification

Website · #193 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:31 pm

TWO not out yet...

Hmmmm...

Website · #194 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:52 pm

10:30 TWO(finally):

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #195 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 10:50 pm

I agree Derek. It has a nice lower level cirualtion. They must be waiting for convection to form over it. In which if those purples mean 40 knots then we could be looking at something.

Swimdude · #196 Postby **Swimdude** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 10:54 pm

Definately some LLC. Looks better than Irene did at that stage.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #197 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:16 pm

The Gfdl loves this storm. Unlike Irene it kept wenting to kill it. In which was half way right to do so. Plus theres a wet MJO over it. So Development is looking very good.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #198 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:49 pm

Whats you guys options about this?

I think if it can form convection near its core then its a go. If not it will weaken.

gkrangers · #199 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:52 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Whats you guys options about this?

I think if it can form convection near its core then its a go. If not it will weaken.

My option is that it becomes a TD within 24 hours. And we will have Jose to track soon. Not gonna discuss it longterm cuz I haven't looked at a damn thing yet.

wxmann_91 · #200 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 12:20 am

I think 96L will become a depression tomorrow and a storm on Sunday. But I don't think it will get strong because of the shear. If it does get strong though we will see a fish.

Win win situation!

is my option.

INVEST 96L

QS

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