TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

how good is the XTRP I am going to say not good?

xtrap is just extrapolated current motion.

Its not a model.

[Sanibel]

Looks like the right outliers were correct...

[storms in NC]

how good is the XTRP I am going to say not good?

xtrap is just extrapolated current motion.

Its not a model.

Thank you. 50 years old and still learning

[flashflood]

Looking at the vapor loop, It seems that the weakness on the edge of the high will be slowly moving off the east coast thus re-curving Irene. If this verifies the model consensus will get a big win on this one.

Side note: that ULL off the coast of FL is almost doing a Betsy..for those who follow such things. 8-)

[JTD]

Any chance Irene could affect Canada?

[Brent]

Any chance Irene could affect Canada?

If the NHC is right... very small to none.

The left edge of the cone(which would also have it skirting the DE/NJ/LI/RI/Cape Cod coast), would take it into Southern Nova Scotia... but that's pretty unlikely at this point. 11pm track should be even farther east.

[dwg71]

For all of those who didnt buy into my fish call from beginning I will let you off the hook, and not gloat.

Climo cannot be thrown out the window. 95% or more of the storms that take that track end up out to sea. Models got into land a few times, but NHC never had their forecast path going inland.

On to 96L...

btw its a fish too.imo

[sponger]

I dont know about that. Data is showing the ridge intact. We are expecting the ridge to erode but that is different than if it IS eroding. That combined with a slower forward speed Later in forcast) means a fish call may be premature.

[dwg71]

I dont know about that. Data is showing the ridge intact. We are expecting the ridge to erode but that is different than if it IS eroding. That combined with a slower forward speed Later in forcast) means a fish call may be premature.

Its out to sea, game over. No US landfall. THis time..

[clfenwi]

Following the 500 mb vorticity max, it looks like the GFS brings Irene only slightly further west (at about 36 h) before turning her northeast up into the westerlies.... a fairly rapid scenario.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... x_mu.shtml

[fci]

For all of those who didnt buy into my fish call from beginning I will let you off the hook, and not gloat.

Climo cannot be thrown out the window. 95% or more of the storms that take that track end up out to sea. Models got into land a few times, but NHC never had their forecast path going inland.

On to 96L...

btw its a fish too.imo

Many thanks for not gloating.

[clfenwi]

Well, I was going to stay up long enough to see the NOGAPS forecast

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... p_troplant

but I'm off to bed... I've drill for the Naval Reserves this weekend. I'll pop in tomorrow afternoon, hopefully.

[CronkPSU]

For all of those who didnt buy into my fish call from beginning I will let you off the hook, and not gloat.

Climo cannot be thrown out the window. 95% or more of the storms that take that track end up out to sea. Models got into land a few times, but NHC never had their forecast path going inland.

On to 96L...

btw its a fish too.imo

hell yeah you should gloat, since i haven't found the eat crow emoticon, this will have to do

[Air Force Met]

I won't gloat either...even though someone a while back said "so...is climo going to protect us mr pro-met?".

And to that I answer...YES!

There is a reason no storm (in the position Irene was at the time) has ever made it to landfall on the CONUS.

[gkrangers]

I won't gloat either...even though someone a while back said "so...is climo going to protect us mr pro-met?".

And to that I answer...YES!

There is a reason no storm (in the position Irene was at the time) has ever made it to landfall on the CONUS.

Well I'm not sure if you've been actively making forecasts and analysis saying why it'll recurve...and if you were calling for a recurve between Bermuda and the US East Coast...then you can gloat. After reading that over..it appears quite convoluted...and I'm not sure what I was actually trying to say...moving on.

In dwg's case...he just blindly says it'll recurve. (or atleast it seems so to me) Did two weeks ago, and does now. Hard to give one much credit for just saying it'll recurve..without giving reasons...instead of just praying the next trough gets it.

Don Sutherland looks to be the big winner if (probably more like when) Irene passes between the US and Bermuda.

[Stratosphere747]

I won't gloat either...even though someone a while back said "so...is climo going to protect us mr pro-met?".

And to that I answer...YES!

There is a reason no storm (in the position Irene was at the time) has ever made it to landfall on the CONUS.

Play nice AFM....

[JamesFromMaine2]

when do the next model plots come out?

[CronkPSU]

when do the next model plots come out?

they are run in a half hour... 2 AM EST

[JamesFromMaine2]

when do the next model plots come out?

they are run in a half hour... 2 AM EST

Ok thanks!

[hurricanefreak1988]

Well, I thought Irene would be the shock of the season. I thought she would defy the odds, and come back from being on life support to being "The One" that ended the wait for Fayetteville. Guess not. Jose, you're up next. Let's see what you've got, and where you're going.