TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2361 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 12:59 am

Intill 96L can become better defined and blow some convection near its center. Then no tropical depression.

hurricanefreak1988 · #2362 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:03 am

Well, even if 96L fades, Jose isn't too far away. He'll be here within the next week, I guarantee you.

ConvergenceZone · #2363 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:18 am

damn, this has got to be record number of pages for a storm thread

wxmann_91 · #2364 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:19 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:damn, this has got to be record number of pages for a storm thread

Imagine if we had a Mitch/Gilbert/Ivan/Allen/Isabel Cat 5 type storm heading our way. 100 pages an day. :roll:

ConvergenceZone · #2365 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:20 am

hehe, I wasn't around last year, but I could imagine what it would have been like with all of the intense Florida canes! Plus, there are alot more members now. I guess it's better to stick to one thread though as the board is easier to read that way.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2366 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:34 am

No hurricane!!! The ship also thinks she will never be a hurricane.

WHXX01 KWBC 130622
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050813 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 0600 050813 1800 050814 0600 050814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.6N 68.2W 30.7N 69.8W 32.2N 71.1W 34.0N 71.4W
BAMM 29.6N 68.2W 30.7N 69.5W 32.0N 70.4W 33.6N 70.6W
A98E 29.6N 68.2W 30.8N 69.2W 32.3N 69.9W 33.9N 69.8W
LBAR 29.6N 68.2W 30.5N 69.2W 31.6N 70.1W 32.8N 70.7W
SHIP 60KTS 61KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 60KTS 61KTS 61KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 0600 050816 0600 050817 0600 050818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.6N 70.3W 36.8N 65.1W 36.8N 61.0W 38.6N 54.1W
BAMM 35.0N 69.7W 36.8N 65.1W 38.4N 60.1W 42.2N 49.5W
A98E 35.1N 68.9W 36.2N 65.8W 37.3N 60.9W 38.9N 51.3W
LBAR 34.0N 70.5W 36.5N 68.2W 39.1N 63.2W 44.6N 49.6W
SHIP 61KTS 63KTS 59KTS 51KTS
DSHP 61KTS 63KTS 59KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.6N LONCUR = 68.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 28.4N LONM12 = 67.1W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 27.2N LONM24 = 65.1W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

ConvergenceZone · #2367 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 1:54 am

It looks pretty putrid on satellite

arcticfire · #2368 Postby **arcticfire** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:28 am

Personally I am not convinced it will recurve and miss. My uneducated eye looking at water vapor see's the ciculation to the SW of irene tugging at it as it and irene move west. I think that might keep Irene from turning north as quickly as models suggest and may just let it brush the CONUS.

I also belive since Irene is now exiting a squeeze play she will catch her breath a bit and finally make it to hurricane stregth. I really wouldn't be suprised to see her speed up some over the course of Saturday as more motion around her moves behind rather then pushing on the sides.

#2369 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 5:50 am

gkrangers wrote: Well I'm not sure if you've been actively making forecasts and analysis saying why it'll recurve...and if you were calling for a recurve between Bermuda and the US East Coast...then you can gloat. After reading that over..it appears quite convoluted...and I'm not sure what I was actually trying to say...moving on.

I made one forecast in the beginning for recurve based on climo alone. I never wavered from that. On the boards...I usually (and people know this) make one forecast in the beginning on what I think it will do and I stick with that...until something comes along and I know I am going to bust the forecast. I don't change it every model run and I don't update it every second. Why? I don't see the need to get into long ordeals (which usually lead to fights) about why it's going to do this or that. If I had changed my mind on the long path of Irene...I would have made another forecast. Considering I was with the fishes in the beginning...I didn't constantly say the same thing because that's just not what I do. I make a forecast...stick to it until it won't stick and then change it. I'm not going to get dogmatic about it because in the end...it doesn't really matter where I think it is going to go...people need to make decisions based on the NHC track. I've got too many things to do to send out a forecast every day...a forecast that in the end won't really mean anything.

wxwatcher91 · #2370 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:00 am

can someone tell me what is going on with Irene?? she looks terrible... and shes about half the size she was yesterday...

#2371 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:16 am

TPNT KGWC 131206
A. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (NINE)
B. 13/1131Z (62)
C. 30.2N/5
D. 69.3W/8
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS -13/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
FINAL T IS BASED ON PT, DT AND MET YIELDS 2.5.

AODT: NOT AVAILABLE

ARCHULETTA

T numbers this morning are 3.0/3/5.

#2372 Postby **Andrew92** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:36 am

Smaller doesn't mean weaker, you know.

I think winds are still at 70 mph, but if anything I almost see a hint that an eye may be trying to form. You can kinda see it in visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

But on IR, you can see it better. There's a very tiny blue dot, not to be confused with the bigger blue area near the center. I wonder if the tiny dot is the beginning of an eye. We'll see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

If this is a trend, she should become a hurricane today.

-Andrew92

Hyperstorm · #2373 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:41 am

The SHIPS is no longer forecasting it to become a hurricane, and in fact, weakens it from this point on.

A few days ago, the likelihood of it becoming a hurricane either yesterday or today, was high. However, I, too, have backed off from thinking it will be a hurricane. Unexpectedly, the system developed easterly shear yesterday and it has displaced most of the thunderstorm activity to the west of the center. The system is trying to strengthen, but that shear combined with dry air on the eastern side, has kept it from doing so.

As it moves northward and NE, it is possible it strengthens before reaching cooler waters, but the probabilities of that happening are greatly diminished...

dwg71 · #2374 Postby **dwg71** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:48 am

gkrangers wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:I won't gloat either...even though someone a while back said "so...is climo going to protect us mr pro-met?".

And to that I answer...YES!

There is a reason no storm (in the position Irene was at the time) has ever made it to landfall on the CONUS.
Well I'm not sure if you've been actively making forecasts and analysis saying why it'll recurve...and if you were calling for a recurve between Bermuda and the US East Coast...then you can gloat. After reading that over..it appears quite convoluted...and I'm not sure what I was actually trying to say...moving on.

In dwg's case...he just blindly says it'll recurve. (or atleast it seems so to me) Did two weeks ago, and does now. Hard to give one much credit for just saying it'll recurve..without giving reasons...instead of just praying the next trough gets it.

Don Sutherland looks to be the big winner if (probably more like when) Irene passes between the US and Bermuda.

Reread my posts, I gave justifications the entire time, it was climo, models and nhc. Climo trumped all. Say what you will, I make early calls and stick with them. I dont change on every model run , I never said "east of Bermuda" or anything else, I just said fish. Storms dont take that track and make US landfall.

du1st · #2375 Postby **du1st** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:12 am

irene really isn't a story.

#2376 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:56 am

well, she looks fairly weak right now, I would expect her to atleast reach cane status. My thinking ahs changed on what this might do and it looks to head out to sea and be with the fishes. so, my crow meal will hopefully be nice and tast!!!!

BUT, I knew the ridge would be stronger than models predicted...always happens that way!! she is still gonna throw some curve balls at us ....and maybe some WEST movement...per NHC??hmmm

#2377 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:04 am

deltadog03 wrote:well, she looks fairly weak right now, I would expect her to atleast reach cane status. My thinking ahs changed on what this might do and it looks to head out to sea and be with the fishes. so, my crow meal will hopefully be nice and tast!!!! BUT, I knew the ridge would be stronger than models predicted...always happens that way!! she is still gonna throw some curve balls at us ....and maybe some WEST movement...per NHC??hmmm

Ill still watch it till it is past me.But fishing should be good today and sunday

#2378 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:26 am

20 60 rule prevails. I didn't remember the 20 60 rule I quoted last week. Sure enough Irene was north of 20 before reaching 60 west. Always a fish. I was hoping for a little more west just to cool things off a bit and some great waves. Looks like it will be too far east and too weak to even do that.

Scorpion · #2379 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:35 am

We have had soo many borderline TS/hurricanes this year its driving me nuts. Arlene,Cindy,Franklin,Harvey, and now Irene!!

#2380 Postby **Andrew92** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:40 am

OK, my eye theory was wrong. I'll have my crow plain.

-Andrew92

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