INVEST 96L

[JamesFromMaine2]

I think it will become TD tomorrow, Tropical storm sunday and a Hurricane first part of next week. I also think it will head into the GOM.

[EDR1222]

Since it is not developed yet, I am not sure how much faith we can have in the models, but it looks like they are indicating a turn to the NNW before reaching the islands.

Although Bermuda has felt some effects I wonder if Franklin, Harvey and Irene are setting a trend for alot of early recurvature of the Atlantic storms this season. Its still early and Irene isn't written off yet, but its good news so far, at least for the east coast of the U.S. The question is will it continue?

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, if the trend of recurving storms continues, the USA may be okay afterall this year, as far as CV storms are concerned. I remember other years when almost everything that formed was a fish due to recurves. It's just the way the pattern sets up.

Of course even with the fish, it would still be considered an above average season, but I think we'd need to see an extremely low-rider or some Carib storms develop in order for the USA to be in danger for awhile...

[wxmann_91]

Since it is not developed yet, I am not sure how much faith we can have in the models, but it looks like they are indicating a turn to the NNW before reaching the islands.

Although Bermuda has felt some effects I wonder if Franklin, Harvey and Irene are setting a trend for alot of early recurvature of the Atlantic storms this season. Its still early and Irene isn't written off yet, but its good news so far, at least for the east coast of the U.S. The question is will it continue?

Too early to tell. It's only August and if the US dodges the CV storms we still have the W Carib. Oct. storms to survive through. If this year turns out even close to 1995, of course we will have some landfalling hurricanes (possibly major), and of course even one landfalling tropical system can make this hurricane season a bad one (not to mention we already had Dennis).

BTW, all bets are off for 96L. Or should I say all convection.

[wxmann_91]

Since it is not developed yet, I am not sure how much faith we can have in the models, but it looks like they are indicating a turn to the NNW before reaching the islands.

Although Bermuda has felt some effects I wonder if Franklin, Harvey and Irene are setting a trend for alot of early recurvature of the Atlantic storms this season. Its still early and Irene isn't written off yet, but its good news so far, at least for the east coast of the U.S. The question is will it continue?

Too early to tell. It's only August and if the US dodges the CV storms we still have the W Carib. Oct. storms to survive through. If this year turns out even close to 1995, of course we will have some landfalling hurricanes (possibly major), and of course even one landfalling tropical system can make this hurricane season a bad one (not to mention we already had Dennis).

BTW, all bets are off for 96L. Or should I say all convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn you 96L come on pull together.

[superfly]

I think it'll still develop. Irene has looked a lot worse on quite a few occasions.

[elysium]

The season is pretty much over until September. 96L is the biggest fish yet. The ridge will be split in two for at least a couple weeks and maybe longer. Everything that develops will recurve until then. This may not be true for the islands, but it's likely. Doesn't look like we will have any activity except fish activity in August.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got to give it one thing. Its LLC is very well defined. In getting much stronger with only pop up convection. A lot more then what we could say about Irene for a few days.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is one well defined LLC forming. More then we can say for many a system around this area. The only thing that is stoping it from a upgrade is its convection is not deep.

This is way cool to watch this systems LLC slowly become stronger.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No hurricane model run for 06Z. Maybe the nhc sees just how tightly packed this LLC has gotten. In made the upgrade???

[superfly]

No hurricane model run for 06Z. Maybe the nhc sees just how tightly packed this LLC has gotten. In made the upgrade???

They'll most definitely wait for the visible with so little convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

13.5/44 is the center I think.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 130649
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050813 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 0600 050813 1800 050814 0600 050814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 43.2W 13.8N 44.4W 15.0N 45.2W 16.1N 45.8W
BAMM 12.8N 43.2W 13.7N 44.4W 14.6N 45.2W 15.5N 45.9W
A98E 12.8N 43.2W 13.6N 44.4W 14.4N 45.9W 15.4N 47.3W
LBAR 12.8N 43.2W 13.8N 44.3W 15.4N 45.1W 16.9N 45.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 0600 050816 0600 050817 0600 050818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 46.4W 20.1N 48.2W 23.6N 50.6W 27.0N 52.3W
BAMM 16.3N 46.6W 18.1N 48.5W 20.1N 51.2W 22.5N 54.5W
A98E 16.8N 48.7W 20.5N 51.4W 23.9N 53.1W 26.2N 54.2W
LBAR 18.2N 46.8W 22.1N 49.7W 27.2N 53.5W 31.9N 54.1W
SHIP 48KTS 53KTS 57KTS 59KTS
DSHP 48KTS 53KTS 57KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 43.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 42.2W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 40.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


The center appears to be northwest of here. In also over the last frames of the satellite shows convection forming.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


Still makes it a major. Also the convection is starting to form over the LLC. Do you have the link to the AFWA?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn it 20 knot shear is trying to shear it. Why o why doe's something unfavable have to kill off every tropical system since mid July this year.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know what ya mean Matt!! I feel the same way. It's like everytime something is developing, there seems to always be something to fight its development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even so it has some shear. This system on visible appears to have a tight LLC with convection poping near it this morning. This system looks very very good. Better then Irene when she first got upgraded by far.

[P.K.]

Doesn't look like this has been posted yet.

13/0545 UTC 12.7N 42.6W T1.0/1.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Big blow up of convection right over the LLC. Outflow/inflow is becoming better defined. It looks like it has finally formed a central core to fire up the convection.

I expect that t number to go to a 2.0 soon. Depression by 11am.