JB and TD#10

[Ivanhater]

well jb says 96l will move wnw to nw then shoot west, he says hes "convinced" of that....he showed models of it hitting the florida coast.....any comments or any new news can be posted here

http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

[Sanibel]

This one is lower in latitude but "High building and sending west" is something that has flopped recently.

If you add the curve for error maybe Hatteras will get a brush.

Back in May a few of us on TWC board were discussing an out to sea pattern this year...

[dwg71]

well jb says 96l will move wnw to nw then shoot west, he says hes "convinced" of that....he showed models of it hitting the florida coast.....any comments or any new news can be posted here

http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

JB also said that Irene would hit east coast. He calls everything to hit US. Any model would be 7+ days out and they would not be very reliable.

[Ivanhater]

well jb says 96l will move wnw to nw then shoot west, he says hes "convinced" of that....he showed models of it hitting the florida coast.....any comments or any new news can be posted here

http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

JB also said that Irene would hit east coast. He calls everything to hit US. Any model would be 7+ days out and they would not be very reliable.

exactly

[jlauderdal]

well jb says 96l will move wnw to nw then shoot west, he says hes "convinced" of that....he showed models of it hitting the florida coast.....any comments or any new news can be posted here

http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

JB also said that Irene would hit east coast. He calls everything to hit US. Any model would be 7+ days out and they would not be very reliable.

I admit I watched him when it was free and enjoyed it but honestly is there any sort of verification done on his predictions? If so, lets see them. I have yet to see anyone on a consistent basis public or private come anywhere close to NHC in the last season and a half.

[dwg71]

Tell me what I'm missing it appears to be heading NW already, how would a pro met like JB call for a florida landfall on this system. I guess he thinks we will forget what he says.

[WeatherEmperor]

I personally dont want to bash any pro met out there but I would just prefer to stick to the NHC in my opinion. I just feel so much more secure with them at the helm, then anybody else. And also, JB can afford to be wrong most of the time. The NHC can NOT afford to be wrong or else.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

Tell me what I'm missing it appears to be heading NW already, how would a pro met like JB call for a florida landfall on this system. I guess he thinks we will forget what he says.

well he was going off one model, i forget which one, that had it going northwest then the ridge building in over it all the way to the coast

[cinlfla]

Tell me what I'm missing it appears to be heading NW already, how would a pro met like JB call for a florida landfall on this system. I guess he thinks we will forget what he says.

I just listened to his forecast and it seems to me this guy just likes to hear himself talk. I don't know what his track record is for forecasting Hurricanes... but please..... he is so full of himself...Sorry if I offended anyone.

[WeatherEmperor]

Tell me what I'm missing it appears to be heading NW already, how would a pro met like JB call for a florida landfall on this system. I guess he thinks we will forget what he says.

I just listened to his forecast and it seems to me this guy just likes to hear himself talk. I don't know what his track record is for forecasting Hurricanes... but please..... he is so full of himself...Sorry if I offended anyone.

lol i know! I just never wanted to say it for fear of bashment.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

Tell me what I'm missing it appears to be heading NW already, how would a pro met like JB call for a florida landfall on this system. I guess he thinks we will forget what he says.

Well, to be fair, he didn't do that.

He did show a model run that had it crossing FL at 288 hours, but the closest he came to forcasting anything about it was to say that it would turn west after coming up NE of the leeward islands.

BTW, the Euro is still recurving it well out to sea. But that's 7 days out, so I'm not convinced of either scenario yet.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

There seems to be a possibility though of it moving west later on. The extended forecast out of Florida do talk about easterly flow developing as high pressure builds in the mid to later part of next week. Would not be calling a fish just yet. Too early.

[x-y-no]

Tell me what I'm missing it appears to be heading NW already, how would a pro met like JB call for a florida landfall on this system. I guess he thinks we will forget what he says.

I just listened to his forecast and it seems to me this guy just likes to hear himself talk. I don't know what his track record is for forecasting Hurricanes... but please..... he is so full of himself...Sorry if I offended anyone.

LOL. Yeah, he comes off that way, that's for sure.

Personally, I enjoy his insights and I've learned some things from him over the years. I just wish he could restrain himself from the digs at NHC. He doesn't have their responsibilities, and he doesn't do the kind of detailed forecasts they do, so IMHO he has no business sniping like he does.

[Huckster]

Tell me what I'm missing it appears to be heading NW already, how would a pro met like JB call for a florida landfall on this system. I guess he thinks we will forget what he says.

well he was going off one model, i forget which one, that had it going northwest then the ridge building in over it all the way to the coast

That is indeed what the 06 utc GFS was showing, NW, then a bend back to the west all the way to Florida. The 12 utc GFS is still showing a bend back to the west, but the bend does not occur until the cyclone is much farther north, and the storm moves toward the mid-Atlantic states rather than Florida, but recurves sharply before it can make landfall. This storm very well could be a fish, but right now, it's too early to say that for sure, and definitely too early to call this a Florida hit. Whatever the case is, there's definitely the possibility that this thing will turn back west or west northwest at some point, if it survives its date with the trough.

[WeatherEmperor]

Quick question. Is anybody else here having problems with the graphic portion of this computer model website? It shows the plots but not the model graphics. Check it out for 96L and it wont show.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Ivanhater]

Quick question. Is anybody else here having problems with the graphic portion of this computer model website? It shows the plots but not the model graphics. Check it out for 96L and it wont show.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

yes!! for the past couple of days, i thought it was just me!! it wont load

[Huckster]

Last night's GFS was also showing a similar scenario, an eventual bend back to the west, just about to the SE coast.

[ts_kakolina]

Quick question. Is anybody else here having problems with the graphic portion of this computer model website? It shows the plots but not the model graphics. Check it out for 96L and it wont show.

<RICKY>

Yes, I have the same problem. Now I know is not my computer. Thank you.

[WeatherEmperor]

Last night's GFS was also showing a similar scenario, an eventual bend back to the west, just about to the SE coast.

I think Derek Ortt just mentioned in the official 96L thread that the GFS and the GFS based models should not be considred right now because they dont pick up on the trough feature in the Atlantic. He goes on to say that it should curve out to sea.

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

Quick question. Is anybody else here having problems with the graphic portion of this computer model website? It shows the plots but not the model graphics. Check it out for 96L and it wont show.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

yes!! for the past couple of days, i thought it was just me!! it wont load

In that case it sucks. However at least now I know that its not just my computer being weird.

<RICKY>