UNOFFICIAL...TD 10 Forecast 1; slow tracker NW/65kts? in 120

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... 5/ten.html

Hurricane in 120; however, the intensity forecast is uncertain.
Track forecast is a compromise of two possibilities: ridge building westward, or system entering and further forming weakness in the ridge. Basically, the track is a compromise and is a straight shot northwestward, and will probably need to be adjusted later.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Track graphic now out for TD 10.

[Bocadude85]

Nice write up, though I dont think td 10 will be north of 25n in 5 days, considering it survives the shear.

[WindRunner]

No, not at all, I see around 23N at 5 days.

[ncweatherwizard]

Model guidance has trended west the past couple of runs, so I put down the track ahead of the guidance to the left a little. All things considered, 26N vs. 23/24N in 120 hours is certainly reasonable.

Hopefully, I'll get some of the fuzz out of the forecast tomorrow.

Scott