Tropical Depression 10 Advisory 1
2:00 PM PDT Aug 13 2005 (5:00 PM EDT or 21Z Aug 13 2005)
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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.
Please remember...tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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An area of low pressure to the east of the Lesser Antilles has gained enough convection to be upgraded to tropical depression status at this time. It is expected to strengthen, however, a marginal upper level environment will prevent much strengthening. In fact...the system could dissipate entirely within the next 24 hours. Thus...will only indicate slight strengthening for the next five days. Should the trough that is causing the shear lift out faster than expected...then the system could strengthen more than indicated...assuming that it still exists.
The depression is forecast to move northwest until a ridge builds to the north and starts steering the system more westward. TD 10 should stay well north of the Lesser Antilles. Any possible threat to areas such as Bermuda...the Bahamas...and the east coast of the United States is uncertain at this time. The track is similar to the NHC's.
Forecaster Tang
Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 14.3N 44.9W 30 kt
12 hr 15.2N 45.9W 30 kt
24 hr 16.2N 46.9W 35 kt
36 hr 17.4N 47.8W 35 kt
48 hr 18.9N 48.7W 35 kt
72 hr 21.2N 51.4W 40 kt
96 hr 23.3N 55.6W 40 kt
120 hr 24.4N 60.4W 45 kt
Track:
Comments and suggestions welcomed as always.
