Well, guess what? Yes, here we go again!!!
I have eaten my crow for Irene!! anyway, there is always a chance to do even better for this forecast. anyway, we have seen our system go back and forth with its convection but, that is certainly normal for a system trying to get together. intial motion is somewhat unclear but, I would estimate it around 320..that is just a rough guess right now. There is a trof coming down from the north that will not let this develop rapidly so therefore kept the forecast intensity down a bit intially. once the trof pushes out then strengthing looks likely. The globals show a nice NW motion for the next few days followed by a turn to the WNW or maybe even W as a ridge starts to build in. This could reach hurricane status just beyond this forecast package. There is NOOO way telling where this will head in the long range...calling it a fish or calling a US landfall is really not smart at this time...have a good night everyone...plz comments
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