GOM = One B-O-R-I-N-G body of water!!

[Ixolib]

Are we past the time for home-grown TCs? Almost looks like I could take my 24 ProLine and make a calm and peaceful run all the way south to the Yucatan!! Of course, fuel (and guts) for such a trip would be a whole 'nother story!!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=irbw&size=small&endDate=20050814&endTime=-1&duration=6

[gkrangers]

I would have to imagine the SSTs and the depth of the warm water is going to be quite favorable for a strong cyclone somewhere down the road..

[hicksta]

If im correct some models pick up on a deveolping system near the BOC.

[gkrangers]

If im correct some models pick up on a deveolping system near the BOC.

What models and what time frame.

[hicksta]

Let me find it, if im correct Dan meador posted this on KHOU. Local weather for Galvetson

[Ixolib]

I would have to imagine the SSTs and the depth of the warm water is going to be quite favorable for a strong cyclone somewhere down the road..

For sure, nothing's been in there in quite some time now to stir things up. Just a big bowl of warm alphabet soup. I wonder which letter will show up next...

[hicksta]

[gkrangers]

Eh..none of the globals show anything.

The NAM doesn't do the tropical thing very well, and I don't really see anything of concern there.

It looks like it may be focusing on the wave thats in the eastern Carribbean right now, which will move westward. Conditions are pretty hostile right now in the Carribbean, but this wave should be watched as it approaches the gulf.

Overall tho, I don't think the NAM is really showing much development, just the presence of the wave.

Also looks like there is a strong high east of Florida, and a another strong high over LA. Mid level flow over the GOM should be east to west in 84 hours, according to the NAM.

[hicksta]

Eh..none of the globals show anything.

The NAM doesn't do the tropical thing very well, and I don't really see anything of concern there.

It looks like it may be focusing on the wave thats in the eastern Carribbean right now, which will move westward. Conditions are pretty hostile right now in the Carribbean, but this wave should be watched as it approaches the gulf.

Overall tho, I don't think the NAM is really showing much development, just the presence of the wave.

Very true, the wave in the Carribbean has a CHANCE of deveolping into something and maybe moving into the GOM. We shall see, but for me come monday. Back to the old routine of Track, School, Fish,Work sleep. Come on cane destroy my school!!

[Huckster]

Man, I remember those days. I HATED school with a passion. Wait, I still hate school. Unfortunately, I have goofed off so much that I still have a couple of years left. At least it's not highschool though.

[NateFLA]

How crazy! I was out in a 22 proline about 50 miles out and I thought two things.

1) Holy cow ... smooth as glass! Maybe 1' "swells" but that is it. I was playing with a remote control powerboat when the fishing got boring and it was having no trouble out there.
2) The water was obscenely warm. I mean, I can't see how we're not developing huge t-storms at least.

I think once some weather patterns shift later in the season it will pick up tremendously though.

[HURAKAN]

There are some computer models that want to intensify the wave in the central caribbean in the western caribbean / GOM. Things may become a little more interesting over the next 72 hours.

[Swimdude]

I agree with y'all. That wave in the Eastern Caribbean is definately something to watch as it enters the GOM. Unfortunately, it seems the models aren't noticing it yet, so heaven knows where it'll be this time next week, and how powerful.

[Derecho]

Are we past the time for home-grown TCs?

Well, on average about 1.2 Tropical Storms or Hurricanes have their first advisory in the GOM a year, and the GOM has already had two TSes with their first advisory in the GOM....

There just aren't nearly as many home-grown GOM TCs as people think.

[susan]

Alicia was home grown and did not form until Aug 15..

[BayouVenteux]

FWIW, today's 00 z run of the Euro depicts lower pressures moving westward across the Caribbean into the southern Gulf this week, but...before anyone shouts "Jose!", in the +196 hour frame it forecasts development of a closed circulation in the EPAC just off the Mexican coast, due west of the southernmost portion of the Bay of Campeche.

In their a.m. discussion, the New Orleans NWS office progs a pretty strong stacked ridge to propagate westward across the Northern Gulf the latter half of this week, so the Euro looks pretty reasonable ATTM, at least in terms of the movement and general areas of lowering pressures this week.

For us...more generally calm seas and sweltering heat-n-humidity.
Just as it should be in mid-August!

[Sanibel]

When EPAC turned on last week I thought the entire basin, including west Atlantic, was flashing on positive. But the Mexican storms and Irene peaked out at low intensity. These things happen on a basin-wide basis. I call it "flashing on" for lack of a better term. More sophisticated members would probably be able to describe it in terms of SOI/Nino, but it isn't so easy. It is an intangible atmospheric that even the pros don't have a handle on. EPAC has been under it for the last few seasons. We haven't seen a fat, rain-laden EPAC bomber in a while.

Last night I took a walk at midnight and there was a single convection storm 7 miles to the north shooting lightning like every second or so. Better than fireworks, especially if it is one single cloud in an open sky at night. The flashes illuminate the billowy top with electric fingers running through it. It's better than fireworks because the light from the electricity has some sort of living brightness. I think the Gulf is charged, anyway, and becoming unstable with the heat saturation of high season approaching.

That's what I like about Florida. You can't explain the living feeling of a warm hurricane season night with electricity flashing in the sky and a setting moon on a calm Gulf horizon to someone up north. You're right in the action down here. Summer is definitely better than winter. Most people only come here in winter.

[Ixolib]

.....That's what I like about Florida. You can't explain the living feeling of a warm hurricane season night with electricity flashing in the sky and a setting moon on a calm Gulf horizon to someone up north. You're right in the action down here. Summer is definitely better than winter. Most people only come here in winter.

Yes - Sanibel - I agree... You folks have it MADE. Paradise for sure. We spend at least two weeks on your island every year - already been there this year the middle of June and stayed at West End Paradise. My first time there was in 1974 - things sure have changed since then!! Hopefully, you still pinch yourself every morning when you wake up just to be sure it's not a dream!!

Absolutely beautiful - but I can't imagine what it's like "during the season". That's gotta be a pain for y'all for sure!! I'd never visit in the winter, but I sure do love it in the summer. Snook on the beach - what more could 'ya ask for... Well, maybe a good summer tstm approaching from the SW - that's always a sight to behold!!

[Sanibel]

Yeah, being a hurricane enthusiast in Florida is like being a volcano fan who lives on the side of a giant volcano.

[Swimdude]

Bump

To add this:



Seems like today's blow-up in convection is dying with the sun. We'll see you when we wake up tomorrow, Mr. Caribbean Wave!