LLC of TD 10 at...

[wxmann_91]

...13.5N, 46.0W? Look at this sat loop:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

(Go to GOES East, click on the Vis & IR Floater centered at the western Caribbean, you'll see the loop.)

Now that is a naked center!

If that was the actual center of TD 10, the good news would be that it's sheared more than I thought, bad news is that its chances of impacting the Antilles will be greater.

Any comments on this?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thing thing only has to come up another 5 mph. Come on Jose add tot he record.

I think if the shear lowers a little a area of convection will start forming some time tomarrow.

[hicksta]

anyone have any sites that have very good maps on this storm. sheer current track models etc? i just reformated

[Steve H.]

Well, the only question is, will it survive?

[gkrangers]

Wow...if that is the primary LLC..that convection is doing a heck of a good time preserving itself, even with the shear. NHC did mention there could be multiple spins.

[fci]

...13.5N, 46.0W? Look at this sat loop:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

(Go to GOES East, click on the Vis & IR Floater centered at the western Caribbean, you'll see the loop.)

Now that is a naked center!

If that was the actual center of TD 10, the good news would be that it's sheared more than I thought, bad news is that its chances of impacting the Antilles will be greater.

Any comments on this?

Can anyone tell me why I see two distinct balls of convection; one at about 15/45 and one at about 10/42?

Hope it is not a dumb question but it confuses me!!

[Hurricaneman]

...13.5N, 46.0W? Look at this sat loop:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

(Go to GOES East, click on the Vis & IR Floater centered at the western Caribbean, you'll see the loop.)

Now that is a naked center!

If that was the actual center of TD 10, the good news would be that it's sheared more than I thought, bad news is that its chances of impacting the Antilles will be greater.

Any comments on this?

Can anyone tell me why I see two distinct balls of convection; one at about 15/45 and one at about 10/42?

Hope it is not a dumb question but it confuses me!!

Seems to be another area to watch

[gkrangers]

...13.5N, 46.0W? Look at this sat loop:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

(Go to GOES East, click on the Vis & IR Floater centered at the western Caribbean, you'll see the loop.)

Now that is a naked center!

If that was the actual center of TD 10, the good news would be that it's sheared more than I thought, bad news is that its chances of impacting the Antilles will be greater.

Any comments on this?

Can anyone tell me why I see two distinct balls of convection; one at about 15/45 and one at about 10/42?

Hope it is not a dumb question but it confuses me!!

I think that convection to the south is just asscoiated with the ITCZ.

[superfly]

Wow...if that is the primary LLC..that convection is doing a heck of a good time preserving itself, even with the shear. NHC did mention there could be multiple spins.

I think there's another LLC under that convection and I'm pretty sure that's the dominant vigorous one.

[HURAKAN]

Like the NHC said, this is Irene-Junior.

[Hurricaneman]

Like the NHC said, this is Irene-Junior.

But in the end I believe this one is going to be more intense

[gkrangers]

Wow...if that is the primary LLC..that convection is doing a heck of a good time preserving itself, even with the shear. NHC did mention there could be multiple spins.

I think there's another LLC under that convection and I'm pretty sure that's the dominant vigorous one.

I don't think so. I don't see any low level inflow..and the proximity to the other LLC would make it unlikely, if not impossible I think. Also...I don't see how one LLC can be wandering to the west while the other (presumably nearby under the convection) would be moving to the NNE.

Not sure tho...would like someone more experienced to chime in.

[Swimdude]

But in the end I believe this one is going to be more intense

Better be. Too many 70 mph TS's this year.

[superfly]

Wow...if that is the primary LLC..that convection is doing a heck of a good time preserving itself, even with the shear. NHC did mention there could be multiple spins.

I think there's another LLC under that convection and I'm pretty sure that's the dominant vigorous one.

I don't think so. I don't see any low level inflow..and the proximity to the other LLC would make it unlikely, if not impossible I think. Also...I don't see how one LLC can be wandering to the west while the other (presumably nearby under the convection) would be moving to the NNE.

Not sure tho...would like someone more experienced to chime in.

On second glance, I believe you're right. The LLC to the SW looks like it's drifting further and further away though so perhaps the vigorous MLC will spin to the surface.

[gkrangers]

It almost makes me want to set the alarm for 4:40 AM to check the discussion...see if they say thats the LLC and what they think it'll do...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think that when the shear becomes more favable this system should come together fairly fast. Maybe even pulling that convection over that LLC. This will be very interesting to watch because already theres a area northeast of there with the shear down 5 to 10 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This reminds me of Irene.

[sma10]

...13.5N, 46.0W? Look at this sat loop:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

(Go to GOES East, click on the Vis & IR Floater centered at the western Caribbean, you'll see the loop.)

Now that is a naked center!

If that was the actual center of TD 10, the good news would be that it's sheared more than I thought, bad news is that its chances of impacting the Antilles will be greater.

Any comments on this?

I see what you're talking about. If that's really the center, than TD 10 is really in a shambles.

[Hurricaneman]

This reminds me of Irene.

The only thing different is it seems to be better organized at this stage in the game

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This reminds me of Irene.

The only thing different is it seems to be better organized at this stage in the game

At least it has a well defined LLC. better then Irene.