Full-Life Forecast: TD 10

[WindRunner]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For those of you running low on your sodium intake, here's a little help.

Using the NRL 19:15Z point of 14.0N 44.6W, this will be a full-life forecast for TD 10. First forecast, so don't expect too much.

The trough to the north will have an impact on TD 10, more so for the intensity than the track. The shear will not be extremely favorable throughout the 36-48hr+ range, so intensity will be somewhat limited if not lost during that period. After escaping the trough, a LLC should be maintained with moderate convection, nothing impressive though. Intensity should progressively increase after 144 hr due to the lower shear and high SSTs. TD 10 should follow the edge of the high and on a path of a similar shape as Irene's with less of a recurvature due to a stronger ridge. The forecast is through 312hrs (13 days) limited by the map.

HOUR STRENGTH
---------------------
INIT 30KTS
24HR 35KTS
48HR 35KTS
72HR 35KTS
96HR 30KTS
120HR 30KTS
144HR 35KTS
168HR 40KTS
192HR 50KTS
216HR 60KTS
240HR 75KTS
264HR 85KTS
288HR 95KTS
312HR 95KTS

Note: Red track is first 120hrs/5 days
Orange is second 120hrs/5 days
Yellow is next 72hrs/3 days

Map:
http://img74.imageshack.us/my.php?image=2005watl0813vis9jr.jpg

[Swimdude]

Nice forecast!

Can't wait to see your map...

Intensity forecasts are so difficult, but yours is as correct as I could imagine at this time.

[WindRunner]

Thanks, it's the best I could see from now. The track forecast is much more uncertain than intensity, even though the intensity will depend on how accurate the 120-240hr track is.

And I tried to get this out before the NHC so I didn't look like a copier, but it is apparent that I didn't beat them. I haven't seen there forecast yet, going to do so now.

[deltadog03]

cool little map...i wouldnt go out that far...lol...

[WindRunner]

Comparing mine to the NHC, I have moved it slower and slightly further south, as well as having it significantly weaker. Maybe I'm oversetimating the shear short-term, but it should all level out in the end.

[WindRunner]

*bump for the night-life people*

even if you just read it.

[Windsong]

nice job! thanks for sharing.
Seabreeze

[hicksta]

seems like irenes old track =]

[Hurricaneman]

seems like irenes old track =]

Sure does, maybe he thinks that this is going to move close to where Irene went, which is as good a guess as any this early in the game