When will the environment become less hostile?

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AnthonyC
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When will the environment become less hostile?

#1 Postby AnthonyC » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:33 pm

If you think about it, the past three/four weeks the entire Atlantic Ocean has been hostile for tropical development. I'm a little surprised by this considering the peak of hurricane season is less than a month away. What gives? What's causing these atmospheric problems?

Anthony
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#2 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:35 pm

Good question. This year reminds me of an El Nino year, no letup of shear. Or this active cycle might be coming to an end with increasing shear???
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#3 Postby AnthonyC » Sun Aug 14, 2005 12:54 am

I've heard we're moving into a weak La Nina phase for Winter and Spring of 2006. Is this true? It just seems the Cape Verde season isn't materializing this year...although it's still early. I could be eating my words in the beginning of September.

Anthony
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#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 14, 2005 12:58 am

I wouldn't discount anything when it comes to the tropics
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Re: When will the environment become less hostile?

#5 Postby Derecho » Sun Aug 14, 2005 1:05 am

AnthonyC wrote:If you think about it, the past three/four weeks the entire Atlantic Ocean has been hostile for tropical development.



Wrong.

Here's the genesis parameters for the tropical Atlantic (CV development area all the way to the Windward Islands)....black is a "normal" season on average, blue is what it actually has been in 2005; they've been above average all season.

Image

Again I have to really wonder about all the people new to following the tropics the last couple of years; you have no idea what "hostile" really is...

HOSTILE is continous 40 kt upper level winds screaming west to east below 20N all season, like 1997....
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#6 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 14, 2005 1:26 am

Further to Derecho's post, the following link's map shows that the shear over the MDR hasn't been too far from normal on average over the last few weeks:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... tatshr.gif

The next link's map does show that the CURRENT shear over TD#10 is very slightly above average for that area for 8/14:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... xyashr.gif
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#7 Postby AnthonyC » Sun Aug 14, 2005 1:34 am

I never said I was an expert, I was just making an observation. It just seems the Atlantic seems unusually hostile for this time of year...especially off the Cape Verde islands. The tropical waves coming off the African coast seem very weak these past few weeks.

Anthony
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#8 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 14, 2005 1:43 am

AnthonyC wrote:I never said I was an expert, I was just making an observation. It just seems the Atlantic seems unusually hostile for this time of year...especially off the Cape Verde islands. The tropical waves coming off the African coast seem very weak these past few weeks.

Anthony


Anthony, Well, I will give you that current shear between TD #10 and the CV's is, indeed, above average based on the second map I linked. Perhaps it has been that way for a while. I don't know. Now for the MDR overall, it apparently has been near average based on linked map #1. Regardless, you may have a point about the area near the CV's.
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#9 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Aug 14, 2005 2:53 am

I think that drier than normal air, aka SAL is what really has been inhibiting convection in systems where even the weakest of shear will have ill effects, by blowing what little thunderstorm coverage the SAL will allow away from the LLC.

Wait, is it just me or is this topic like dejuvu to one we had last year...lol :lol:
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#10 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 14, 2005 6:39 am

better tell the ts's conditions are favorable. anything that has had the possibility of threatening the east coast has been weak. frankie, harve, irene, and td10 have spent much of their lives as naked swirls
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#11 Postby BayouVenteux » Sun Aug 14, 2005 9:21 am

A mere six weeks or less from now, the current (and annually occurring :lol: ) concern regarding "hostile conditions" and talk of "what's stopping development?" will seem laughable in retrospect.
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#12 Postby Frank2 » Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:27 am

It's true that last year many of us (including myself) were commenting in July on just how quiet everything was - until August came, however, this year shows the hallmark of other seasons that were very active in their early stage, but suddenly turned quiet - and remained that way.

One meteorological reason for this to happen is perhaps because the environment has changed during the season, which can turn an active season into a quiet one - or just the opposite, as was the case last year.

It's very possible, in reference to the initial comment here, that the season will remain unfavorable for the development of "healthy" tropical cyclones through the remainder of the season. Considering that Franklin, Harvey and Irene were all "unhealthy" (or weak) tropical storms, this seems to possibly be the case.

Some here and elsewhere on the board have mentioned the ridge to build in again in the weeks ahead, but, this is not the case, since, it's known to forecasters that the subtropical ridge actually begins to break down and move eastward beginning in late August, and, while there may be a temporary rebuilding of the ridge in September, increasing weateriles and southward moving cold fronts usually make any rebuilding short-lived.

I know some here want to hear otherwise, but, after spending approximately 12,000 hours at the NHC, you get to observe various weather patterns from one season to the next, and in your heart you get to recognize them for what the are, and, while that's not to say that we will not see anything else this season, the pattern seems to now be there for a less active season than was originally predicted.

Sincerely,

Frank
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#13 Postby dhweather » Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:40 am

Frank-

I'm getting the feeling that the 2005 season is winding down. If you simply graph the distribution of the storms:

A B C D E F G H I X
TS TS TS C4 C4 TS TS TS TS TD

We went from tropical storms, to two major hurricanes, back to tropical
storms, and a pathetic depression.

We may see 3-4 more storms this year, but the conditions are not as
favorable as they were early in the season. I suspect Dr. Gray will
lower his numbers slightly, come September 1.
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#14 Postby Frank2 » Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:43 am

That's a good graph, and really brings home just how "below normal" the season actually has been in certain ways.

Frank
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Frank and the tropics

#15 Postby hurricanetrack » Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:46 am

Since Franks says, "It's very possible, in reference to the initial comment here, that the season will remain unfavorable for the development of "healthy" tropical cyclones through the remainder of the season." I will be looking for an incredible back-peddling of Dr. William Gray and his crew, NOAA/HRD, and TSR come early September. I would assume that since conditions have apparently changed, according to Frank and his statement above, that the three major tropical cyclone seasonal forecast camps will issue a new forecast for the remainder of the season and will explain to everyone why they made such a huge mistake. This would have to go down in history as one of the greatest busts of all time. I would imagine that people will become very concerned as to how NOAA/HRD missed the negative signals so badly- as well as the folks in England at TSR and Dr. Gray and his colleagues.

If anyone sees information from the Big-3 (NOAA, Bill Gray, TSR) that indicates a reversal of the mega forecast, please post it in huge letters on the s2k homepage- that will be an incredible day in the history of tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting. And from there on out, the public will have little reason to believe again.

By the way, is Frank who spent 12,000 hours at the NHC Frank Lepore? I know Frank Lepore and Frank Marks at HRD. Otherwise, I did not ever meet or know any other Franks....but then again, I have only spent perhaps 10 hours total at NHC/HRD since 1999. Just wondering.
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HERE WE GO

#16 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:55 am

The tropics got quiet for now so of course there are those who say the season is over or there will be a big downgrade at the next forecast. Most of the active years start late but this has been a weird start. The Bell curve is going to have to change if this keeps up. I have no doubt it will be a monster year I just hope nobody gets hit. There will be more Cat4-5 Hurricanes. The tropics change like the wind and it won't be long till we are tracking plenty of names. So everbody be patient. There coming! :eek:
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#17 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:58 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With a weaker ridge, storms in sept in the GOM may go NE, putting FL
West coast at a high risk for strong TS's/Weak Cat 1's like
Gabrielle in 2001.

I have a strong feeling based on climatology in this pattern that there will
be a Gabrielle type storm this Sept. Nothing to get really worried about,
but if GOM becomes favorable then watch out.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Sun Aug 14, 2005 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Aug 14, 2005 11:00 am

BayouVenteux wrote:A mere six weeks or less from now, the current (and annually occurring :lol: ) concern regarding "hostile conditions" and talk of "what's stopping development?" will seem laughable in retrospect.


Ya never know. April was active for tornadoes, but many chasers who waited to chase in May didn't get much, for the Great Plains was stuck in an unfavorable pattern for them until June, where things exploded.

So I'm drawing a parallel here. Does anybody think the CV season will be a bust, but the October/November season will see a few Mitch/Michelle/Lenny type systems?
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#19 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Aug 14, 2005 11:04 am

just a couple of comments on the 2005 synoptic....as the season progresses, it appears that we have experienced a sea change in upper-level flow(particularly when compared to the icon year of 2004). the persistent east coast ridge, which marked the height of the 04 season and reappeared in late june and early july, has been replaced by a long wave trough. an seasonably high amplitiude pattern is dominating the atlantic marked by early recurvature of eastern systems. unless this pattern reverses itself in the next couple of weeks, i strongly doubt that we will see any further western landfalls of CV systems. in general, the strongest and most persistent ridging has been present from 60deg w long to near the US coast. IMO, any US landfalling majors will have to, by necessity. be low latitude trans-caribbean systems which will tend to form between 50 and 60 deg w below 15deg n. systems forming north or east of this area will tend toward early recurvature. october may, IMO, be the hot month for cyclogenesis. the western and southwestern caribbean, in addtion to being climatologically favored for development, should be under the influence of that fairly persistent ridge referred to above. high sst and low shear would be the keys to the development of one or more major storms during the late season period. the more frequent intrusions of mid level troughs tend to impart a northerly/northeasterly motion. historically, these tracks tend to threaten fla and the northeastern GOM coast. IMHO, we will be adjusting our focus south and west for the remainder of the year............rich
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#20 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 14, 2005 11:59 am

This season is a dud!!

:lol: :lol:


...

Patience, grasshopper. 8-)
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