Tropical Wave WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands (40/80)

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.

deep mind

[Weathertracker96]

Hopefully we get an invest soon. That could start to help the ensembles & operational a little bit.

[chaser1]

My own speculation of a potential (but low confidence) point of consolidation at this time is around:
12.0 N and 33.0 W

Still, not identifiable enough of a feature to warrant calling it an Invest. The fact that this is slowly congealing rather than rapidly developing around an already identifiable MLC spin, suggests to me that this system could be fairly large in size.

[chaser1]

Until this organizes enough to attain some vertical depth, model projections are pointless. Best near term guess for motion would probably be BAML. Once organized enough to get a good initialization, then it's location, size, and relationship to steering flow & upper level conditions can be better number-crunched by models to give us better guidance. The way it looks, I'm thinking perhaps late tomorrow or Friday as an Invest (add a couple days for T.D.).

[Nimbus]

Since it is still attached to the monsoonal trough the 12Z GFS initialized it further south than yesterdays 12Z GFS resulting in a Hugo scenario. 12Z ECM built a stronger ridge to the north driving it into the Caribbean as a weaker storm. No short wave to produce a recurve with these model runs but the GFS seems unrealistically slow.

Fair amount of moisture along the current projected track so a 20% chance that it won't develop in 7 days seems a little high.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.
https://i.imgur.com/fSRFOUS.png
deep mind
https://i.imgur.com/hFqFOXz.png

It's all about the timing of that trough which dictates recurve vs CONUS. At this range you might as well flip a coin.

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.
https://i.imgur.com/fSRFOUS.png
deep mind
https://i.imgur.com/hFqFOXz.png

It's all about the timing of that trough which dictates recurve vs CONUS. At this range you might as well flip a coin.

The AI models in a couple of years will eat this uncertainty for lunch but for now, default is recurve.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[Zonacane]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.
https://i.imgur.com/fSRFOUS.png
deep mind
https://i.imgur.com/hFqFOXz.png

It's all about the timing of that trough which dictates recurve vs CONUS. At this range you might as well flip a coin.

The AI models in a couple of years will eat this uncertainty for lunch but for now, default is recurve.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

Way too early to say. We just have to wait

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.
https://i.imgur.com/fSRFOUS.png
deep mind
https://i.imgur.com/hFqFOXz.png

It's all about the timing of that trough which dictates recurve vs CONUS. At this range you might as well flip a coin.

The AI models in a couple of years will eat this uncertainty for lunch but for now, default is recurve.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

Yeah maybe. In my field (medicine) they've been saying AI will consume us in 5 years for the last 5 years. Use cases remain very narrow. I'm not buying the hype. At some point it is a data-input issue.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS through hour 132 is more SW and weaker, looks like the SW trend continues

[Teban54]

12z Euro ensembles shifted west, with seemingly greater support for development.

[AutoPenalti]

Gfs 18z doesn’t cut off the trough which leaves it wide open to be swept away.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS says hold youre horses, north atlantic trough kicks out quickly, ridging builds in and traps this system, starts moving west towards the eastern US coast

[Pelicane]

Downtrend on the GEFS this cycle. Still not really supporting these operational runs yet. Very large spread of possibilities in just a 5 day timeframe.

[Stratton23]

GFS barely misses NC but absolutely pounds the NE US on this run