Tropical Wave WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 91L)

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.

deep mind

[Weathertracker96]

Hopefully we get an invest soon. That could start to help the ensembles & operational a little bit.

[chaser1]

My own speculation of a potential (but low confidence) point of consolidation at this time is around:
12.0 N and 33.0 W

Still, not identifiable enough of a feature to warrant calling it an Invest. The fact that this is slowly congealing rather than rapidly developing around an already identifiable MLC spin, suggests to me that this system could be fairly large in size.

[chaser1]

Until this organizes enough to attain some vertical depth, model projections are pointless. Best near term guess for motion would probably be BAML. Once organized enough to get a good initialization, then it's location, size, and relationship to steering flow & upper level conditions can be better number-crunched by models to give us better guidance. The way it looks, I'm thinking perhaps late tomorrow or Friday as an Invest (add a couple days for T.D.).

[Nimbus]

Since it is still attached to the monsoonal trough the 12Z GFS initialized it further south than yesterdays 12Z GFS resulting in a Hugo scenario. 12Z ECM built a stronger ridge to the north driving it into the Caribbean as a weaker storm. No short wave to produce a recurve with these model runs but the GFS seems unrealistically slow.

Fair amount of moisture along the current projected track so a 20% chance that it won't develop in 7 days seems a little high.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.
https://i.imgur.com/fSRFOUS.png
deep mind
https://i.imgur.com/hFqFOXz.png

It's all about the timing of that trough which dictates recurve vs CONUS. At this range you might as well flip a coin.

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.
https://i.imgur.com/fSRFOUS.png
deep mind
https://i.imgur.com/hFqFOXz.png

It's all about the timing of that trough which dictates recurve vs CONUS. At this range you might as well flip a coin.

The AI models in a couple of years will eat this uncertainty for lunch but for now, default is recurve.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[Zonacane]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.
https://i.imgur.com/fSRFOUS.png
deep mind
https://i.imgur.com/hFqFOXz.png

It's all about the timing of that trough which dictates recurve vs CONUS. At this range you might as well flip a coin.

The AI models in a couple of years will eat this uncertainty for lunch but for now, default is recurve.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

Way too early to say. We just have to wait

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z GFS Ensembles, not even close to the operational.
https://i.imgur.com/fSRFOUS.png
deep mind
https://i.imgur.com/hFqFOXz.png

It's all about the timing of that trough which dictates recurve vs CONUS. At this range you might as well flip a coin.

The AI models in a couple of years will eat this uncertainty for lunch but for now, default is recurve.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

Yeah maybe. In my field (medicine) they've been saying AI will consume us in 5 years for the last 5 years. Use cases remain very narrow. I'm not buying the hype. At some point it is a data-input issue.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS through hour 132 is more SW and weaker, looks like the SW trend continues

[Teban54]

12z Euro ensembles shifted west, with seemingly greater support for development.

[AutoPenalti]

Gfs 18z doesn’t cut off the trough which leaves it wide open to be swept away.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS says hold your horses, north atlantic trough kicks out quickly, ridging builds in and traps this system, starts moving west towards the eastern US coast

[Pelicane]

Downtrend on the GEFS this cycle. Still not really supporting these operational runs yet. Very large spread of possibilities in just a 5 day timeframe.

[Stratton23]

GFS barely misses NC but absolutely pounds the NE US on this run

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this
system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic while moving slowly toward the
west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. The system is likely to move faster
toward the west or west-northwest thereafter and reach the waters
east of the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS barely misses NC but absolutely pounds the NE US on this run

The Long Island Cape Cod Express

[johngaltfla]

The annual GFS recurve as a Cat 4+ into Tampa in 5, 4, 3, 2.....

[zzzh]

A closed but elongated LLCC is now evident on the ASCAT, as the monsoon trough breaks down.

[Teban54]

GFS barely misses NC but absolutely pounds the NE US on this run

The Long Island Cape Cod Express

This would be a near worst-case scenario for Long Island, CT, RI and MA.