Katrina's L. Antilles connection

#1 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:04 pm

(EDIT - Moved season totals to new thread.)

#2 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:17 pm

This whole season is a blur! This morning I finally got the time to go back to my own records, and see what (if any) connection I could actually find between TD10 and 12-Katrina.

First of all, here's what TPC wrote about these two:

Tropical depression TEN developed from a tropical wave on 13 August about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Strong vertical wind shear caused the cyclone to dissipate the next day about 870 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. The remnants of the depression moved west-northwestward until 23 August, when some portion of the system may have contributed to the initial development of Hurricane Katrina.

Katrina will likely be recorded as the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States, producing catastrophic damage and untold casualties in the New Orleans area and along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, and additional casualties in South Florida. The extent of the physical and human devastation from this hurricane cannot yet be estimated.

This horrific storm formed from a tropical wave, becoming a depression about 175 miles southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas on 23 august. It became a tropical storm the following day. Katrina moved northwestward through the Bahamas, and then turned westward toward south Florida and gradually strengthened. Katrina became a category 1 hurricane and made landfall on the Miami-Dade/Broward county line during the evening of 25 August. Katrina moved southwestward across south florida, dumping over a foot of rain, toppling trees and power lines and damaging homes and businesses in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Katrina also brought heavy rains and sustained tropical storm force winds to portions of the Florida Keys.

After crossing south Florida and entering the Gulf of Mexico, Katrina began to strengthen, reaching category 5 strength on 28 August about 250 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Katrina's winds reached their peak intensity of 175 mph winds and the pressure fell to 902 mb, the fourth lowest pressure on record, later that day. Katrina turned to the northwest and then north, making landfall in Plaquemines Parish Louisiana just south of Buras with 140 mph winds, category 4, at 610 am CDT on 29 August. Continuing northward, Katrina made a second landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border at 1000 am CDT, with maximum winds of near 125 mph, Category 3. Katrina weakened as it moved inland to the north-northeast but was still a hurricane 100 miles inland near Laurel Mississippi. Katrina continued to weaken and became a tropical depression near Clarksville Tennessee on 30 August. At month's end, the remnants of Katrina were racing east-northeastward near Binghamton New York.

Here's the two on a map:

WED AUG 17 2005 430 AM AST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

*SYNOPSIS - A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A 1010 MB TROPICAL LOW NEAR 16 N 55 W... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...WILL CONTINUE MOVING MAINLY W TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO A MORE W/NW MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS NE OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS AND TSTORMS TRAILING THIS SYSTEM TO THE S... EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THU AUG 18 2005 430 AM AST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

*SYNOPSIS - A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING W AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A 1010 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10...WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 N 59 W EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING W/NW AT NEAR 10 KT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL W/NW TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND ITS CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR TO THE N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO A POSITION ABOUT 200 MILES NE OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTORMS TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THU AUG 18 2005 405 PM AST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

*SYNOPSIS - THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10...WAS LOCATED NEAR 18 N 60 W THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS MOVING W/NW AT NEAR 10 KT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL W NW TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND SHOULD PASS NEAR OR TO THE N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE N OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTORMS TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

FRI AUG 19 2005 430 AM AST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

*SYNOPSIS - THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDED FROM NEAR 23 N 64 W...S SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND THEN WEAKLY INTO THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING...MOVING W NW...AND WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS N TO PRODUCE SCATT TO NUMEROUS TSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN EXIT THE AREA TO THE NW TONIGHT. A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 58 W EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING WESTWARD...AND WILL PASS MAINLY S OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND MOVE W/NW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SAT AUG 20 2005 1030 AM AST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

*SYNOPSIS - THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WERE LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER TRAILING E/SEWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WEATHER HAD BEGUN TO MERGE WITH APPROACHING TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 67 W...MOVING W NEAR 15 MPH. ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY W/NW THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH ISO INTENSE TSTORMS. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA TO THE W LATE TONIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC THEN BUILDING WEAKLY INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUN AUG 21 2005 430 AM AST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

*SYNOPSIS - A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN MONA PASSAGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SW AND EXTEND WEAKLY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 58 W THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT W/SW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHWRS. [/img]

#3 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:39 pm

OK, I'm giving this a bump in case some haven't seen it.

Any comments on the Katrina-TD10 relationship? I certainly expected many here would have opinions on that! Chime in.

#4 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:40 pm

It is eerie looking in retrospect how EXtd10 became the monster known as Katrina. Too early for most to look back, maybe when this season ends.

Website · #5 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:46 pm

Yeah... it is freaky. TD 10 was this puny sick thing and it still boggles the mind how the worst hurricane in U.S. history came from that.

That's 2005 for you.

wxmann_91 · #6 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:09 pm

Thanks for compiling all the information together bvigal.

Very interesting stats about this season and on the Katrina-TD 10 connection. It seems like yesterday almost, especially that thread "TD-10 Back Again?", where everybody was fighting about whether TD 10 was going to come back and be a major at landfall. I guess everybody was right, it didn't come back but in the end the parent wave was still a major at landfall. :lol:

Heck, I still remember elysium and his crazy forecasts.

#7 Postby **bvigal** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 6:49 am

(EDIT - moved updated totals to new thread)

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 6:51 am

I'll never forget when it formed. I knew right away it would be sheared at first, likely causing it to move more west...and I was a little angered on how many people began yelling "FISH!" "FISHY FISHY"...it ended up becoming the dreaded 100 billion+ costly hurricane.

mtm4319 · #9 Postby **mtm4319** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:03 am

Beta only spent 3 hours as a major hurricane, displacing Maria as the shortest-lived major this season. I'd think it also has to be in a tie for the shortest-lived major hurricane ever recorded.

WindRunner · #10 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:07 am

mtm4319 wrote:Beta only spent 3 hours as a major hurricane, displacing Maria as the shortest-lived major this season. I'd think it also has to be in a tie for the shortest-lived major hurricane ever recorded.

No, 6 hours. It got upgraded at 2am.

mtm4319 · #11 Postby **mtm4319** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:08 am

WindRunner wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Beta only spent 3 hours as a major hurricane, displacing Maria as the shortest-lived major this season. I'd think it also has to be in a tie for the shortest-lived major hurricane ever recorded.

No, 6 hours. It got upgraded at 2am.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...13.3 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

WindRunner · #12 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:12 am

mtm4319 wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Beta only spent 3 hours as a major hurricane, displacing Maria as the shortest-lived major this season. I'd think it also has to be in a tie for the shortest-lived major hurricane ever recorded.

No, 6 hours. It got upgraded at 2am.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...13.3 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

Oops, I was reading the 4am one . . . :oops:

no advance · #13 Postby **no advance** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:18 am

What suck is with proper maintainance of the levees this disaster might never of reached its terrible proportions. Good morning everyone.

Innotech · #14 Postby **Innotech** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 8:37 am

no advance wrote:What suck is with proper maintainance of the levees this disaster might never of reached its terrible proportions. Good morning everyone.

dont forget NO's neighbors eastward down the coast! No levees broke there!

#15 Postby **bvigal** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 10:06 am

I've moved the 'season totals' posts to a new thread, so we can concentrate here on Invest 96-TD10 and TD12-Katrina.

This morning I did some reading from 2 months ago. This forum contains a significant amount of very useful information for researching this topic! I do wish that some of the graphics which were inserted had been static images, so we could see what they looked like then, instead of today.

Just curious... have any of our pro-mets had either time or inclination to comment upon what took place in those few days between these 2 systems?

#16 Postby **bvigal** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 10:08 am

f5 · #17 Postby f5 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:42 pm

TD-10 the wave that just would not die.

Website · #18 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:58 pm

f5 wrote:TD-10 the wave that just would not die.

I vote for TD 10 to be retired.

#19 Postby **WxGuy1** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:58 pm

no advance wrote:What suck is with proper maintainance of the levees this disaster might never of reached its terrible proportions. Good morning everyone.

The Lower 9th Ward flooded during the heart of the storm. That area of the city received a glancing blow from Katrina's eyewall, so that explains why the lake was pushed over the levee during the that time.

f5 · #20 Postby f5 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:01 pm

Brent wrote:
f5 wrote:TD-10 the wave that just would not die.

I vote for TD 10 to be retired.

if we retire TD-10 then how will that affect the numbering system?

Katrina's L. Antilles connection

Katrina's L. Antilles connection

Who is online