NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

I bet that recon will find 136 kt FL and 933 extrap...

[Nimbus]

The further west she tracks before the turn the more likely it will be Montego Bay and Guantanamo getting the worst core winds. Surge and flooding in Kingston with feet of rain and 32 foot swells isn't going to be very pleasant either.

[Kazmit]

The further west she tracks before the turn the more likely it will be Montego Bay and Guantanamo getting the worst core winds. Surge and flooding in Kingston with feet of rain and 32 foot swells isn't going to be very pleasant either.

Also the more likely it will go over flatter terrain.

[kevin]

Eye temperature now at +20.1C

[Iceresistance]

Eye temperature now at +20.1C

At one point on CyclonicWX, it was at +20.8C

[USTropics]

Hard to put into words what we're seeing so I'll just let the 150-frame loop do the talking:

[Travorum]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1982529488480333854

[ScottNAtlanta]

Interesting video on Jamaica's mountains and the hurricane


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=QQ4a_01mGQY

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Fancy1002]

I think it’s Miss piggy that is south of Cuba and heading towards Melissa. Hopefully it can get there at a good time.

[zzzh]

I think the plane won't catch the peak

[PavelGaborik10]

https://i.imgur.com/ihimXjF.png
I think the plane won't catch the peak

This storm is 40 hours away from landfall.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/ihimXjF.png
I think the plane won't catch the peak

I mean, a newer scan has this. The moat is much smaller

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3uA0.png

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/ihimXjF.png
I think the plane won't catch the peak

I mean, a newer scan has this. The moat is much smaller
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3uA0.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3uA0.png

I wonder if we may see an eyewall meld. HAFS runs have shown close concentric eyewalls similar to this that don’t trigger a full-blown EWRC.

Either way, recon should be close enough for us to extrapolate backwards if necessary.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Live stream from Jamaica...while it lasts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvhfvU6SWqc

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Melissa still looks almost as good as it has been in the past hour -- which is itself the best that it had ever looked all day, with the perfectly round CDO and almost a full CMG ring -- but the recent frames show slight degradation to the west. How much that's related to the mold discussed above is anyone's guess.

[WaveBreaking]

The CDO just started to rotate really quickly like it's vibrating. Hurricane Jova did the same thing when it was rapidly intensifying too.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is about 50 miles NW of Jamaica, so they might arrive to sample the peak

[ScottNAtlanta]

The CDO just started to rotate really quickly like it's vibrating. Hurricane Jova did the same thing when it was rapidly intensifying too.


https://i.imgur.com/FJGHaTM.gif

Its wild being able to see the eye actually contracting