NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Travorum]

Recon's a little over half an hour late but is taxiing now, I'll take a wild guess and say they'll find 125-130kts and low-mid 930s on the first pass, probably in the N or NE.

[zzzh]

NOAA 42 taking off, should be there in 2.5h

[Fancy1002]

She seems to be roaring on all cylinders, and it seems like the eye wall will go or is going through a meld rather than a traditional replacement, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a monster five by the end of the night.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't know if it has been mentioned but there was a dropsonde on the NW side of the eyewall with surface wind of 132kts

[aspen]

125 kt/941 mbar for the 5pm advisory. That’s the pressure supported by the final drop. Surprised they didn’t shave off a few mbar to account for likely continued deepening.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like she might be gaining a little latitude. Unless my eyes are getting wonky. That's possible too.

[eastcoastFL]

I don't know if it has been mentioned but there was a dropsonde on the NW side of the eyewall with surface wind of 132kts

I saw that. Did it ever get flagged?

[WaveBreaking]

[kevin]

The CDO is pretty much perfectly circular now and it has almost completed a closed -75C ring which it hasn't managed to do so far in its life after clearing the eye. On top of that the potential EWRC has instead become a smooth meld. Due to Melissa looking better on satellite vs its actual intensity so far I'm a bit hesitant to say this, but now I really do think that the system is taking off.

[Category5Kaiju]

NHC now has labeled Melissa as a 125 knot/941 mbar storm. Looks like strengthening is underway again.

[Kazmit]

The CDO is pretty much perfectly circular now and it has almost completed a closed -75C ring which it hasn't managed to do so far in its life after clearing the eye. On top of that the potential EWRC has instead become a smooth meld. Due to Melissa looking better on satellite vs its actual intensity so far I'm a bit hesitant to say this, but now I really do think that the system is taking off.

Wild to say “taking off” for a storm that’s already a mid-range cat 4. The ceiling for this is insane.

[Kazmit]

https://i.imgur.com/9W298FT.png
https://i.imgur.com/EjBFQsv.png

Based on that visible satellite image alone you could argue for that being a 150kt system and I'd believe you.

[Hurricane2022]

I bet that recon will find 136 kt FL and 933 extrap...

[Nimbus]

The further west she tracks before the turn the more likely it will be Montego Bay and Guantanamo getting the worst core winds. Surge and flooding in Kingston with feet of rain and 32 foot swells isn't going to be very pleasant either.

[Kazmit]

The further west she tracks before the turn the more likely it will be Montego Bay and Guantanamo getting the worst core winds. Surge and flooding in Kingston with feet of rain and 32 foot swells isn't going to be very pleasant either.

Also the more likely it will go over flatter terrain.

[kevin]

Eye temperature now at +20.1C

[Iceresistance]

Eye temperature now at +20.1C

At one point on CyclonicWX, it was at +20.8C

[USTropics]

Hard to put into words what we're seeing so I'll just let the 150-frame loop do the talking:

[Travorum]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1982529488480333854

[ScottNAtlanta]

Interesting video on Jamaica's mountains and the hurricane


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=QQ4a_01mGQY