NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Teban54]

AF307 is headed home. When is the next flight scheduled to depart?

Per cyclonicwx (which can show schedules of all upcoming recon flights in reader-friendly formats), here's the next NOAA flight:

Depart time: 26/2000Z (6 minutes from now)

Entry time: 26/2200Z

Fix time: 26/2330Z

Exit time: 27/0200Z

[Sciencerocks]

Very well defined. Probably going to strengthen into the 930's in the next 6-9 hours....

[StormWeather]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5861/HVKxO3.gif

Very well defined. Probably going to strengthen into the 930's in the next 6-9 hours....

Recon already had an extrapolated pressure of 939.9 mb, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen.

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-0-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

AF307 is headed home. When is the next flight scheduled to depart?

Per cyclonicwx (which can show schedules of all upcoming recon flights in reader-friendly formats), here's the next NOAA flight:

Depart time: 26/2000Z (6 minutes from now)

Entry time: 26/2200Z

Fix time: 26/2330Z

Exit time: 27/0200Z

Thanks, I didn’t know cyclonicwx had that section for upcoming flights.

[Kingarabian]

Wow insane looking system. Prayers for those in its way.

[aspen]

I’d go with something around 125 kt/935 mbar for 5pm. The slightly increasing SFMR/FL winds from the last two passes may support upping the winds at least 5 kt from last advisory, and the pressure is dropping at a decent clip too. It definitely has that Cat 5 look — solid -70C donut with a stadium effect and 15C or so eye — but I doubt it’ll actually be one at 5. I’m hesitant to think it’s over 130 kt at the moment given how its satellite presentation has fooled us today.

Probably looking at a Cat 5 for tonight’s flight if I had to guess, although another level-off is absolutely possible.

[Travorum]

Recon's a little over half an hour late but is taxiing now, I'll take a wild guess and say they'll find 125-130kts and low-mid 930s on the first pass, probably in the N or NE.

[zzzh]

NOAA 42 taking off, should be there in 2.5h

[Fancy1002]

She seems to be roaring on all cylinders, and it seems like the eye wall will go or is going through a meld rather than a traditional replacement, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a monster five by the end of the night.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't know if it has been mentioned but there was a dropsonde on the NW side of the eyewall with surface wind of 132kts

[aspen]

125 kt/941 mbar for the 5pm advisory. That’s the pressure supported by the final drop. Surprised they didn’t shave off a few mbar to account for likely continued deepening.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like she might be gaining a little latitude. Unless my eyes are getting wonky. That's possible too.

[eastcoastFL]

I don't know if it has been mentioned but there was a dropsonde on the NW side of the eyewall with surface wind of 132kts

I saw that. Did it ever get flagged?

[WaveBreaking]

[kevin]

The CDO is pretty much perfectly circular now and it has almost completed a closed -75C ring which it hasn't managed to do so far in its life after clearing the eye. On top of that the potential EWRC has instead become a smooth meld. Due to Melissa looking better on satellite vs its actual intensity so far I'm a bit hesitant to say this, but now I really do think that the system is taking off.

[Category5Kaiju]

NHC now has labeled Melissa as a 125 knot/941 mbar storm. Looks like strengthening is underway again.

[Kazmit]

The CDO is pretty much perfectly circular now and it has almost completed a closed -75C ring which it hasn't managed to do so far in its life after clearing the eye. On top of that the potential EWRC has instead become a smooth meld. Due to Melissa looking better on satellite vs its actual intensity so far I'm a bit hesitant to say this, but now I really do think that the system is taking off.

Wild to say “taking off” for a storm that’s already a mid-range cat 4. The ceiling for this is insane.

[Kazmit]

https://i.imgur.com/9W298FT.png
https://i.imgur.com/EjBFQsv.png

Based on that visible satellite image alone you could argue for that being a 150kt system and I'd believe you.