ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[northtxboy]

yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run..

Hey Rock could you post that Link please. Much thanks...

[Portastorm]

yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run..

Hey Rock could you post that Link please. Much thanks...

Here's a link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif

[Ivanhater]

That system is being discussed here...back to 93L

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111482

[SoupBone]

I don't care about ridges; I only care about genesis. And, the Euro has a 1005 mb low east of Honduras at hour 96.

I care about ridges (not the Ruffle's kind either) because of the potential to open up the Gulf Coast for business. I think it's pretty relevant to the discussion. Where are you located?

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro...120 hours. A hurricane into Belize is not out of the question imo. Canadian and the Euro looks to spin this up quite rapidly as it approaches Belize. If it is moving slow enough it could go boom.



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[KWT]

Yep more agressive 12z suite, the 12z ECM looks pretty good track wise IMO...

[northtxboy]

yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run..

Hey Rock could you post that Link please. Much thanks...

Here's a link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif

thanks buddy

[SoupBone]

yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run..

Hey Rock could you post that Link please. Much thanks...

Here's a link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif

Is that a classified system yet or just a la la land run?

Nevermind 384 hours.

[Portastorm]

It's a tropical wave just now coming off the coast of Africa.

And it's also being talked about in the Talking Tropics forum.

[wxman57]

Euro - and then inland near Belize this weekend followed by dissipation over southern Mexico. That's the track I think is most likely. Also note the second system entering the eastern Caribbean in 6 days - future 95L? (or would that be 96L?)

[Ivanhater]

Actually not that far from the BOC at 144 hours Wxman. Any change in rudge placement or strength with this system could move it into the BOC. Should not be a threat for the U.S though. Although the system off Africa might be a different story.


For kicks and giggles 12z HWRF

[Ivanhater]

Actually 97L Wxman...Keep up! JK

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro does indeed get this in the BOC



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[wxman57]

So far, HWRF has been a joke of a model. It can't come close to replacing the GFDL yet.

[KWT]

Geez Ivanhater what an agressive HWRF run, what is the pressure by that point?

I totally agree with Wxman57 with regards to track, should have a good chance if the model solutions are correct at developing in the W.Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

BTW...the wave off Africa that the GFS and Euro are developing has now been classified as Pouch 17L. Usually means an invest is coming shortly.

[KWT]

Hmmm yeah the wording has gotten a little more agressive, I think the 12z suite and the way some are now developing this system further west has slightly shifted the NHC mindset with regards to this system...

I'd be surprised if it gets going too soon, but systems do have a habit of strengthening quite quickly after 75W.

[Ivanhater]

Intensity models are bullish

[KWT]

So far, HWRF has been a joke of a model. It can't come close to replacing the GFDL yet.

Its been awful, and to be fair the GFDL hasn't been great either. May do better once there is actually a few systems develop a proper low level circulation!

[wxman57]

So far, HWRF has been a joke of a model. It can't come close to replacing the GFDL yet.

Its been awful, and to be fair the GFDL hasn't been great either. May do better once there is actually a few systems develop a proper low level circulation!

The GFDL does much better when there's an active storm. The HWRF does poorly for everything.