ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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northtxboy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#801 Postby northtxboy » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:21 pm

ROCK wrote:yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run.. :D

Hey Rock could you post that Link please. Much thanks... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#802 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:24 pm

northtxboy wrote:
ROCK wrote:yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run.. :D

Hey Rock could you post that Link please. Much thanks... :D


Here's a link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#803 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:25 pm

That system is being discussed here...back to 93L :wink:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111482
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#804 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:26 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:I don't care about ridges; I only care about genesis. And, the Euro has a 1005 mb low east of Honduras at hour 96.


I care about ridges (not the Ruffle's kind either) because of the potential to open up the Gulf Coast for business. I think it's pretty relevant to the discussion. Where are you located? :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#805 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:28 pm

12z Euro...120 hours. A hurricane into Belize is not out of the question imo. Canadian and the Euro looks to spin this up quite rapidly as it approaches Belize. If it is moving slow enough it could go boom.

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#806 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:29 pm

Yep more agressive 12z suite, the 12z ECM looks pretty good track wise IMO...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#807 Postby northtxboy » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:29 pm

Portastorm wrote:
northtxboy wrote:
ROCK wrote:yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run.. :D

Hey Rock could you post that Link please. Much thanks... :D


Here's a link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif


:eek: thanks buddy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#808 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:32 pm

Portastorm wrote:
northtxboy wrote:
ROCK wrote:yeah Port....I saw the 384HR GFS....nasty run.. :D

Hey Rock could you post that Link please. Much thanks... :D


Here's a link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif



Is that a classified system yet or just a la la land run?

Nevermind 384 hours. :lol:
Last edited by SoupBone on Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#809 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:33 pm

It's a tropical wave just now coming off the coast of Africa.

And it's also being talked about in the Talking Tropics forum.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#810 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:34 pm

Euro - and then inland near Belize this weekend followed by dissipation over southern Mexico. That's the track I think is most likely. Also note the second system entering the eastern Caribbean in 6 days - future 95L? (or would that be 96L?)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#811 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:37 pm

Actually not that far from the BOC at 144 hours Wxman. Any change in rudge placement or strength with this system could move it into the BOC. Should not be a threat for the U.S though. Although the system off Africa might be a different story.


For kicks and giggles 12z HWRF :wink:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#812 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:38 pm

Actually 97L Wxman...Keep up! JK :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#813 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:40 pm

12z Euro does indeed get this in the BOC

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#814 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:40 pm

So far, HWRF has been a joke of a model. It can't come close to replacing the GFDL yet.
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#815 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:41 pm

Geez Ivanhater what an agressive HWRF run, what is the pressure by that point?

I totally agree with Wxman57 with regards to track, should have a good chance if the model solutions are correct at developing in the W.Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#816 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:42 pm

BTW...the wave off Africa that the GFS and Euro are developing has now been classified as Pouch 17L. Usually means an invest is coming shortly.
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#817 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:43 pm

Hmmm yeah the wording has gotten a little more agressive, I think the 12z suite and the way some are now developing this system further west has slightly shifted the NHC mindset with regards to this system...

I'd be surprised if it gets going too soon, but systems do have a habit of strengthening quite quickly after 75W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#818 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:45 pm

Intensity models are bullish

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#819 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:So far, HWRF has been a joke of a model. It can't come close to replacing the GFDL yet.


Its been awful, and to be fair the GFDL hasn't been great either. May do better once there is actually a few systems develop a proper low level circulation!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#820 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:51 pm

KWT wrote:
wxman57 wrote:So far, HWRF has been a joke of a model. It can't come close to replacing the GFDL yet.


Its been awful, and to be fair the GFDL hasn't been great either. May do better once there is actually a few systems develop a proper low level circulation!


The GFDL does much better when there's an active storm. The HWRF does poorly for everything.
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