ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2022060118, , BEST, 0, 190N, 875W, 25, 1007, DB

[skyline385]

Guessing we might have some better model runs tonight with it consolidating

[SFLcane]

Guessing we might have some better model runs tonight with it consolidating

Just noticed we are neighbors lol. Thinking our area could see the heaviest rain but we shall see.

[cycloneye]

Observations show is organizing.

 https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1532069464942190593

[skyline385]

Guessing we might have some better model runs tonight with it consolidating

Just noticed we are neighbors lol. Thinking our area could see the heaviest rain but we shall see.

Are you in Jupiter? Cause i know there is someone here who literally lives in the same community as me but in forgot the ID lol. But yea i am hoping for some good rain from this too.

[skyline385]

Observations show is organizing.

 https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1532069464942190593

Seems to be running ahead of models right? It will probably pick up again during Dmax tonight.

[SFLcane]

Guessing we might have some better model runs tonight with it consolidating

Just noticed we are neighbors lol. Thinking our area could see the heaviest rain but we shall see.

Are you in Jupiter? Cause i know there is someone here who literally lives in the same community as me but in forgot the ID lol. But yea i am hoping for some good rain from this too.

Lakeworth

[CrazyC83]

At what point would a watch or warning be needed? That would be the determinant for PTC 1.

[jinftl]

Any thoughts on whether 91L will merit tropical storm watches or warnings for the Keys or southern peninsula of Florida by Friday?

[Nimbus]

Low level center south of Cuba is bursting again hard to tell if there is a closed circulation, might be some light shear.

[Jelmergraaff]

Any thoughts on whether 91L will merit tropical storm watches or warnings for the Keys or southern peninsula of Florida by Friday?

Although I'm not an expert, I think a tropical storm watch is pretty likely. Regarding the location, almost all models have it tracking somewhere over Florida. And concering the wind speed, I guess the sustained wind will be quite close to tropical storm force. The NHC will probably issue a watch if it comes close to it, and a warning if it is likely to surpass the 39 mph threshold.

[jinftl]

Thanks for feedback. I realize that this system is more likely to be dropping heavy rains Friday and Saturday over the central and southern peninsula of Florida, but if nothing else, the hurricane season doesn’t want to make her debut without at least a little bit of noise.

Any thoughts on whether 91L will merit tropical storm watches or warnings for the Keys or southern peninsula of Florida by Friday?

Although I'm not an expert, I think a tropical storm watch is pretty likely. Regarding the location, almost all models have it tracking somewhere over Florida. And concering the wind speed, I guess the sustained wind will be quite close to tropical storm force. The NHC will probably issue a watch if it comes close to it, and a warning if it is likely to surpass the 39 mph threshold.

[cane5]

Interesting two see there are 2 distinct possibilities for the rain portion. The larger more uncertain question is that as it approaches the coast will it tighten up and ratchet up the intensity. All of that we simply will not know for another 24 hours.

[skyline385]

Can someone confirm if I am seeing this right and the LLC seems to be forming midway better Yucatan and Cuba because all the models had it camping right besides Yucatan for another 24 hours. EURO even had it running inland before heading towards FL.

[Sciencerocks]

[SFLcane]

Can someone confirm if I am seeing this right and the LLC seems to be forming midway better Yucatan and Cuba because all the models had it camping right besides Yucatan for another 24 hours. EURO even had it running inland before heading towards FL.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/ec07215d97ddae01da8b9910c325016f.gif

Yup, shear is pushing everything east it could very well cut through the straits and bump against the florida shield.

[AutoPenalti]

LLC is inland (in the Yucatan), very elongated right now.

[AtlanticWind]

Can someone confirm if I am seeing this right and the LLC seems to be forming midway better Yucatan and Cuba because all the models had it camping right besides Yucatan for another 24 hours. EURO even had it running inland before heading towards FL.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/ec07215d97ddae01da8b9910c325016f.gif

Yup, shear is pushing everything east it could very well cut through the straits and bump against the florida shield.

I wish there was a Florida shield

[jlauderdal]

Can someone confirm if I am seeing this right and the LLC seems to be forming midway better Yucatan and Cuba because all the models had it camping right besides Yucatan for another 24 hours. EURO even had it running inland before heading towards FL.

IR isnt the tool to determine where the LLC is forming. Visible sat, ship reports, recon(dropsondes), etc. is needed.

[boca]

Looks to me with the strong shear that all the weather will head to the Bahamas and we will be sitting pretty here in Florida