ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
18z Best Track:
AL, 91, 2022060118, , BEST, 0, 190N, 875W, 25, 1007, DB
AL, 91, 2022060118, , BEST, 0, 190N, 875W, 25, 1007, DB
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Guessing we might have some better model runs tonight with it consolidating
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:Guessing we might have some better model runs tonight with it consolidating
Just noticed we are neighbors lol. Thinking our area could see the heaviest rain but we shall see.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Guessing we might have some better model runs tonight with it consolidating
Just noticed we are neighbors lol. Thinking our area could see the heaviest rain but we shall see.
Are you in Jupiter? Cause i know there is someone here who literally lives in the same community as me but in forgot the ID lol. But yea i am hoping for some good rain from this too.
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Observations show is organizing.
https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1532069464942190593
Seems to be running ahead of models right? It will probably pick up again during Dmax tonight.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Guessing we might have some better model runs tonight with it consolidating
Just noticed we are neighbors lol. Thinking our area could see the heaviest rain but we shall see.
Are you in Jupiter? Cause i know there is someone here who literally lives in the same community as me but in forgot the ID lol. But yea i am hoping for some good rain from this too.
Lakeworth
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
At what point would a watch or warning be needed? That would be the determinant for PTC 1.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Any thoughts on whether 91L will merit tropical storm watches or warnings for the Keys or southern peninsula of Florida by Friday?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Low level center south of Cuba is bursting again hard to tell if there is a closed circulation, might be some light shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
jinftl wrote:Any thoughts on whether 91L will merit tropical storm watches or warnings for the Keys or southern peninsula of Florida by Friday?
Although I'm not an expert, I think a tropical storm watch is pretty likely. Regarding the location, almost all models have it tracking somewhere over Florida. And concering the wind speed, I guess the sustained wind will be quite close to tropical storm force. The NHC will probably issue a watch if it comes close to it, and a warning if it is likely to surpass the 39 mph threshold.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Thanks for feedback. I realize that this system is more likely to be dropping heavy rains Friday and Saturday over the central and southern peninsula of Florida, but if nothing else, the hurricane season doesn’t want to make her debut without at least a little bit of noise.
Jelmergraaff wrote:jinftl wrote:Any thoughts on whether 91L will merit tropical storm watches or warnings for the Keys or southern peninsula of Florida by Friday?
Although I'm not an expert, I think a tropical storm watch is pretty likely. Regarding the location, almost all models have it tracking somewhere over Florida. And concering the wind speed, I guess the sustained wind will be quite close to tropical storm force. The NHC will probably issue a watch if it comes close to it, and a warning if it is likely to surpass the 39 mph threshold.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Interesting two see there are 2 distinct possibilities for the rain portion. The larger more uncertain question is that as it approaches the coast will it tighten up and ratchet up the intensity. All of that we simply will not know for another 24 hours.
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- skyline385
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Can someone confirm if I am seeing this right and the LLC seems to be forming midway better Yucatan and Cuba because all the models had it camping right besides Yucatan for another 24 hours. EURO even had it running inland before heading towards FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:Can someone confirm if I am seeing this right and the LLC seems to be forming midway better Yucatan and Cuba because all the models had it camping right besides Yucatan for another 24 hours. EURO even had it running inland before heading towards FL.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/ec07215d97ddae01da8b9910c325016f.gif
Yup, shear is pushing everything east it could very well cut through the straits and bump against the florida shield.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
LLC is inland (in the Yucatan), very elongated right now.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Can someone confirm if I am seeing this right and the LLC seems to be forming midway better Yucatan and Cuba because all the models had it camping right besides Yucatan for another 24 hours. EURO even had it running inland before heading towards FL.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/ec07215d97ddae01da8b9910c325016f.gif
Yup, shear is pushing everything east it could very well cut through the straits and bump against the florida shield.
I wish there was a Florida shield
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Re: RE: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
IR isnt the tool to determine where the LLC is forming. Visible sat, ship reports, recon(dropsondes), etc. is needed.skyline385 wrote:Can someone confirm if I am seeing this right and the LLC seems to be forming midway better Yucatan and Cuba because all the models had it camping right besides Yucatan for another 24 hours. EURO even had it running inland before heading towards FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Looks to me with the strong shear that all the weather will head to the Bahamas and we will be sitting pretty here in Florida
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