NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Hurricane2022]

Ok

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like we could see 100-105 knots in a couple minutes. Those cloud tops are ferocious. Coupled with the sheer amount of time and boiling hot waters, I don't know what the ceiling is at this point. I pray for the people of Jamaica

[InfernoFlameCat]

I have been lurking, but this is too WOW to not post about. Sheer awe. I predicted a 150 knot storm, but I thought I was being ridiculous. I don’t need to describe whats going on, we are all seeing it, but WOW

[Iceresistance]

Uhhhhhhh


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3njq.png

[LARanger]

If it goes more south and west, could the next front miss lifting it out to sea?

Seems exceedingly doubtful given the almost-absolute constant of all models suggesting a hard right turn to the northeast, but I'm juuuust twitchy enough at the moment to keep checking in for any sign of a 'breakthrough' all the same. After all, any storm in that location is usually one I need to keep an eye on.

[Travorum]

Raw T# is almost up to 7.0 and that's with ADT fixing the center firmly in the outskirts of the CDO. Obviously its going to take a while of continued structural improvement for wind speeds and the CI# to catch up but man is the structure good right now for the future.

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2025 Time : 021021 UTC
Lat : 16:39:15 N Lon : 75:46:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 975.6mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[869MB]

Yeah it’s officially a Category 3 hurricane now…it only gets worse from here

[CrazyC83]

If that CDG can completely wrap around the eye, then it's off to the races.

[Iceresistance]

I don't think I remember seeing the NHC explicitly mention "Seek Shelter Now", that is actually very frightening

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: [b]Seek shelter now. A multi-day period of damaging
winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week.[/b]

[weeniepatrol]

13/5/4.

[Fancy1002]

We officially have ourselves another major.

[869MB]

I don't think I remember seeing the NHC explicitly mention "Seek Shelter Now", that is actually very frightening

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. A multi-day period of damaging
winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week.

The NHC realizes that this could be a potentially historic catastrophe for the island nation if many of these latest computer models are accurate. They, and many of us here, recognize that Jamaica, historically, for all intents and purposes, has never had to prepare for this type of weather scenario.

[Blown Away]

13/5/4.

17/7/4 for me.

Hard to predict 4/5 total hurricanes are Major…

[ScottNAtlanta]

ACE points should really start accumulating now

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eye is out

[Teban54]

[Blown Away]

It seems if Melissa continues moving slightly S of W the trough will catch her farther E and the angle of the NE turn would be closer the E end of Jamaica…

[sasha_B]

Raw ADT# just jumped to 7.5
Alas, the microwave adjustment is on, so final T# remains stuck at 4.4.

[BobHarlem]

Long duration radar loop of Melissa (since eye was discernible on radar) until now.

[Blown Away]

Long duration radar loop of Melissa (since eye was discernible on radar) until now.

https://i.postimg.cc/qvKw9sDy/Jamaica-Radar-Melissa-10.gif

Bob can you provide the radar link? Thanks..