NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Fancy1002]

Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile

I saw it with 106 kt at the surface. I wonder if it is accurate? Or a bit overdone?

If it’s not accurate right now, it likely will be within an hour or so. Melissa is looking to be a hell of a monster over the next 24 hours unless an eye wall replacement cycle knocks her down, but even then I’m not sure how long that will be, especially if it goes through an eye wall meld instead.

[Travorum]

Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile

https://i.postimg.cc/Gh1BhvXb/recon-NOAA2-1313A-MELISSA-dropsonde20-20251026-0152.png

From that N eyewall dropsonde the WL150 winds support 95kts just like the FL winds do. Melissa is knocking at the door of MH strength.

[zzzh]

700mb FL 115! Easily a MH.

[CrazyC83]

Combined with the SFMR, likely around 105 kt. Pressure looks to be way down this pass too, maybe 964 or so?

[Hurricane2022]

Habemus Major Hurricane Melissa. I'll wait for the next NHC advisory before going to bed...but as of now, I expect to wake up to an apocalyptic hurricane with winds of 140-160+ mph.

700mb FL 115! Easily a MH.

[Travorum]

115kt 700mb winds plus 108kt SFMR blends and rounds to 105kt and extrap pressure so far is down to 966mb with 20kts wind—we'll see if the next HDOB dump has a bit lower. Regardless I expect to see a MH at the 03z advisory.

Also an interesting note from the last VDM, I'm not sure if this has any implication on intensification as I've never seen it before:

EYEWALL APPEARS SQUARE ON RADAR SIGNATURE

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Jeez, Melissa will likely be approaching or at Cat 4 by sunrise at this rate.

[Blown Away]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
5pm
INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Melissa not supposed to pass 76W until after 06z, my guess she’s pretty close now. I think W adjustments now will result in W adjustments near Jamaica… JMHO

[Hurricane2022]

Ok

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like we could see 100-105 knots in a couple minutes. Those cloud tops are ferocious. Coupled with the sheer amount of time and boiling hot waters, I don't know what the ceiling is at this point. I pray for the people of Jamaica

[InfernoFlameCat]

I have been lurking, but this is too WOW to not post about. Sheer awe. I predicted a 150 knot storm, but I thought I was being ridiculous. I don’t need to describe whats going on, we are all seeing it, but WOW

[Iceresistance]

Uhhhhhhh


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3njq.png

[LARanger]

If it goes more south and west, could the next front miss lifting it out to sea?

Seems exceedingly doubtful given the almost-absolute constant of all models suggesting a hard right turn to the northeast, but I'm juuuust twitchy enough at the moment to keep checking in for any sign of a 'breakthrough' all the same. After all, any storm in that location is usually one I need to keep an eye on.

[Travorum]

Raw T# is almost up to 7.0 and that's with ADT fixing the center firmly in the outskirts of the CDO. Obviously its going to take a while of continued structural improvement for wind speeds and the CI# to catch up but man is the structure good right now for the future.

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2025 Time : 021021 UTC
Lat : 16:39:15 N Lon : 75:46:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 975.6mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[869MB]

Yeah it’s officially a Category 3 hurricane now…it only gets worse from here

[CrazyC83]

If that CDG can completely wrap around the eye, then it's off to the races.

[Iceresistance]

I don't think I remember seeing the NHC explicitly mention "Seek Shelter Now", that is actually very frightening

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: [b]Seek shelter now. A multi-day period of damaging
winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week.[/b]

[weeniepatrol]

13/5/4.

[Fancy1002]

We officially have ourselves another major.

[869MB]

I don't think I remember seeing the NHC explicitly mention "Seek Shelter Now", that is actually very frightening

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. A multi-day period of damaging
winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week.

The NHC realizes that this could be a potentially historic catastrophe for the island nation if many of these latest computer models are accurate. They, and many of us here, recognize that Jamaica, historically, for all intents and purposes, has never had to prepare for this type of weather scenario.