TD 10...Back Again

[clfenwi]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

18Z guidance... worth noting that all three BAMs are now keeping the system south of 20° N as it crosses 60° W (although the BAMD does it just barely).

corresponding intensity guidance : http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

[gkrangers]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

18Z guidance... worth noting that all three BAMs are now keeping the system south of 20° N as it crosses 60° W (although the BAMD does it just barely).

I haven;t been able to find the text guidance posted.

[WeatherEmperor]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

18Z guidance... worth noting that all three BAMs are now keeping the system south of 20° N as it crosses 60° W (although the BAMD does it just barely).

Could it be because they are keeping TD10 remnants as a weak system?

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

18Z guidance... worth noting that all three BAMs are now keeping the system south of 20° N as it crosses 60° W (although the BAMD does it just barely).

I haven;t been able to find the text guidance posted.

Yeah, I haven't seen any of messages with the WHXX01 header for 10 since the 06Z cycle... but apparently the runs are going on and the data is entering ATCF (the apparent source for the links given above)

[Frank2]

Here's the current visible loop (as of 4 ET) - note the westerly blow-off of island convection to the west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Frank

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.

good point! nobody mentions the pulse on/pulse off effect that this TD10 remnants has been doing for couple of days now.

<RICKY>

[jabber]

Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.

Looks like the shear is just as bad, if not worse up ahead. Run the vis loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and look at the islands to the west, see how the clouds forming over during the day are being ripped NE.... does not seem very good for tropical development.

EDIT: Frank2, you beat me to it.... great minds think alike

[clfenwi]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

18Z guidance... worth noting that all three BAMs are now keeping the system south of 20° N as it crosses 60° W (although the BAMD does it just barely).

Could it be because they are keeping TD10 remnants as a weak system?

<RICKY>

From my understanding of them, the BAMs aren't smart enough to concern themselves with such details (in a dynamic fashion, at least), that's why there are three of them run to cover all of the possibilities: A shallow, medium, or deep system. The view of the BAMs at the moment is that it doesn't matter how shallow or deep the system is; it's going south of 20/60. The accuracy of that view depends on the accuracy of the 12Z GFS upper-level wind forecasts.

[Sanibel]

A good eye will tell you this storm will form simply because of the two deep dots of convection...

[SouthFloridawx]

check it out there is a couple of circulation within the overall mass of rotation....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.

Looks like the shear is just as bad, if not worse up ahead. Run the vis loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and look at the islands to the west, see how the clouds forming over during the day are being ripped NE.... does not seem very good for tropical development.

True over the islands the shear has increased to 20kts But right on top of td10 the shear is decreasing relative to the center. Also, it will move into a lower shear enviironment, and I doubt if the shear you mention will be there in 48+ hours by time it gets there. Not saying it will be in great environment, but I see 50/50 chance of it getting ventilation from an anticyclone or the ULL or staying in impulse power from shear. I'll make the call that it survives and gets stronger/sheared/stronger/sheared for 96 hours. Then there will be 200 people in this forum

[Ivanhater]

were getting some more thunderstorm activity to the northwest of the center...lets see if this is the start of another pulse

[gatorcane]

southernFlwx...I think you and I and others in S. Florida should be weary of TD 10...down the road

[gkrangers]

southernFlwx...I think you and I and others in S. Florida should be weary of TD 10...down the road

It








watching.

[storms in NC]

Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.

Looks like the shear is just as bad, if not worse up ahead. Run the vis loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and look at the islands to the west, see how the clouds forming over during the day are being ripped NE.... does not seem very good for tropical development.

True over the islands the shear has increased to 20kts But right on top of td10 the shear is decreasing relative to the center. Also, it will move into a lower shear enviironment, and I doubt if the shear you mention will be there in 48+ hours by time it gets there. Not saying it will be in great environment, but I see 50/50 chance of it getting ventilation from an anticyclone or the ULL or staying in impulse power from shear. I'll make the call that it survives and gets stronger/sheared/stronger/sheared for 96 hours. Then there will be 200 people in this forum

Oh how very true you are.

[clfenwi]

Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.

Looks like the shear is just as bad, if not worse up ahead. Run the vis loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and look at the islands to the west, see how the clouds forming over during the day are being ripped NE.... does not seem very good for tropical development.

EDIT: Frank2, you beat me to it.... great minds think alike

Well, the CIMSS analyses have showing 10+ knot shear over the lesser Antilles, however they have also been promising an area of an area of sub-10 knot shear northeast of PR / north-northeast of the northern most Lesser Antilles... but as it stands now, the system would have to go back into 20 + knot areas after that...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[nequad]

Still way too much shear. It's obvious there will be no regeneration today.

Latest imagery shows what appears to be a mid-level circulation spinning off to the NE of the LLC.

This system is far from regaining TC status.

[gkrangers]

Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.

Looks like the shear is just as bad, if not worse up ahead. Run the vis loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and look at the islands to the west, see how the clouds forming over during the day are being ripped NE.... does not seem very good for tropical development.

EDIT: Frank2, you beat me to it.... great minds think alike

Well, the CIMSS analyses have showing 10+ knot shear over the lesser Antilles, however they have also been promising an area of an area of sub-10 knot shear northeast of PR / north-northeast of the northern most Lesser Antilles... but as it stands now, the system would have to go back into 20 + knot areas after that...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Its going to have a rough week...as if it hasn't already.

[SouthFloridawx]

southernFlwx...I think you and I and others in S. Florida should be weary of TD 10...down the road

It








watching.

I believe you might be right. I have had a weird feeling about this storm.... remember last year how you just know when the storm is coming. I'm not predicting anything but, I have been looking at thing since birth and it's still holding on. I think i will check over my supply kit and pick up a few things. Again not forcasting or saying anything.