BensonTCwatcher wrote:Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.
Looks like the shear is just as bad, if not worse up ahead. Run the vis loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
and look at the islands to the west, see how the clouds forming over during the day are being ripped NE.... does not seem very good for tropical development.
EDIT: Frank2, you beat me to it.... great minds think alike
