Possible dilemma for NHC tomorrow?

[sma10]

With the remant low currently 475 miles from the Leewards moving west at 10, that places the system approx 48 hours from the islands. (Thurs night)

The first tentatively scheduled recon is for Thursday at 2pm.

There are two big ifs: 1) IF the low begins to organize tonight or early tomorrow (big, big if) and 2) IF the system continues to move to the left of anticipated track, then wouldn't 2pm on Thursday be a shade too late to start sending out recon missions?

All I'm suggesting is -- would the NHC have a dilemma tomorrow afternoon if the shear abates and the system begins organizing (all the while continuing a westerly track?) Obviously, this is all supposition, but it would seem to me they may be forced to move a recon mission up earlier if those two conditions occur tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

no dilemma really...it may just be a minimal T.S if it goes as far south of the islands...not a big deal

[Recurve]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161400 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-080 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/1800Z NEAR 20N AND 60W. -- ADDED

[boca]

Tropical storm warnings for the islands I think would be the worst because theirs still shear out in that area.

[sma10]

no dilemma really...it may just be a minimal T.S if it goes as far south of the islands...not a big deal

You may say it's not a big deal, except I can't remember the NHC just allowing an active tropical system go right over some landmass in the Caribbean without sending a recon plane first.

[linkerweather]

they wont send recon if the system is east of 50W

[sma10]

they wont send recon if the system is east of 50W

?? by tomorrow it will be approaching 60W already

[gkrangers]

they wont send recon if the system is east of 50W

And its about at about 54-55W right now?

[boca]

The system is at 57 already passed the 55 mark to send a recon out

[linkerweather]

My bad, I meant 55 W
Islands are at around 62W
Forgive the brainfreeze, it has been a long evening here with t-storms

[sma10]

My bad, I meant 55 W
Islands are at around 62W

Okay...but it's still past 55W.....and will be well past 55W by tomorrow morning.

[mobilebay]

They will not move up recon. If there is any doubt they will just issue Tropcal Storm Warnings to cover the worst case. No need for recon. There guess from satellite will not be that for off.

[wxmann_91]

Back on topic here...I think that, as I have stated in other posts, that TD 10 is most likely going to be a non entity. It's really nothing to panic about.

But then again, one only has to go back to 92L to know that even tropical waves can wreak havoc and destruction, so I'd advise everyone to still watch this system (but again, NO OVERHYPING!!!).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres really not much I can say. This is by far the most organized system they have holded off upgrading in a long time. Thats all I'm going to say. I'm worried that this might pull a suprize.

[gkrangers]

Theres really not much I can say. This is by far the most organized system they have holded off upgrading in a long time. Thats all I'm going to say. I'm worried that this might pull a suprize.

I still think you get overexcited about whats really nothing.

The convection is still being sheared off...and still in a pulsing mode. Its just not organized....

I don't think we'll see it upgraded until it gets some consistent convection over the center, with some outflow and a brighter outlook for development.

Still another 24-48 hours I think.

[boca]

I think it might pull something tomorrow.

[sma10]

The center is on the south side of all the (dying) convection tonight and it appears that the short term motion is now 270. The circulation does show up quite nicely on this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[boca]

It's defintely moving west from that sat pic and on the last frame it looked like a pulse at the very end.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Pulses are getting shorter apart in more organized. They are making this storm stronger. This will make it I'm sure of it. At least if there is not any more suprizes.

[boca]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

They seem to think a turn to the NW late Thurs into Friday. Why?