Possible dilemma for NHC tomorrow?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Possible dilemma for NHC tomorrow?

#1 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:22 pm

With the remant low currently 475 miles from the Leewards moving west at 10, that places the system approx 48 hours from the islands. (Thurs night)

The first tentatively scheduled recon is for Thursday at 2pm.

There are two big ifs: 1) IF the low begins to organize tonight or early tomorrow (big, big if) and 2) IF the system continues to move to the left of anticipated track, then wouldn't 2pm on Thursday be a shade too late to start sending out recon missions?

All I'm suggesting is -- would the NHC have a dilemma tomorrow afternoon if the shear abates and the system begins organizing (all the while continuing a westerly track?) Obviously, this is all supposition, but it would seem to me they may be forced to move a recon mission up earlier if those two conditions occur tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:24 pm

no dilemma really...it may just be a minimal T.S if it goes as far south of the islands...not a big deal
0 likes   

User avatar
Recurve
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1640
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 8:59 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#3 Postby Recurve » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:26 pm

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161400 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-080 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/1800Z NEAR 20N AND 60W. -- ADDED
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6368
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#4 Postby boca » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:26 pm

Tropical storm warnings for the islands I think would be the worst because theirs still shear out in that area.
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#5 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:27 pm

boca_chris wrote:no dilemma really...it may just be a minimal T.S if it goes as far south of the islands...not a big deal


You may say it's not a big deal, except I can't remember the NHC just allowing an active tropical system go right over some landmass in the Caribbean without sending a recon plane first.
0 likes   

User avatar
linkerweather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 261
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:59 am
Location: tampa bay area

#6 Postby linkerweather » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:27 pm

they wont send recon if the system is east of 50W
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#7 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:28 pm

linkerweather wrote:they wont send recon if the system is east of 50W


?? by tomorrow it will be approaching 60W already
0 likes   

gkrangers

#8 Postby gkrangers » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:29 pm

linkerweather wrote:they wont send recon if the system is east of 50W
And its about at about 54-55W right now?
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6368
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#9 Postby boca » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:30 pm

The system is at 57 already passed the 55 mark to send a recon out
0 likes   

User avatar
linkerweather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 261
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:59 am
Location: tampa bay area

#10 Postby linkerweather » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:31 pm

My bad, I meant 55 W
Islands are at around 62W
Forgive the brainfreeze, it has been a long evening here with t-storms
Last edited by linkerweather on Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#11 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:32 pm

linkerweather wrote:My bad, I meant 55 W
Islands are at around 62W


Okay...but it's still past 55W.....and will be well past 55W by tomorrow morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
mobilebay
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1853
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 1:22 am
Location: Mobile, Alabama

#12 Postby mobilebay » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:42 pm

They will not move up recon. If there is any doubt they will just issue Tropcal Storm Warnings to cover the worst case. No need for recon. There guess from satellite will not be that for off. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#13 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:46 pm

Back on topic here...I think that, as I have stated in other posts, that TD 10 is most likely going to be a non entity. It's really nothing to panic about.

But then again, one only has to go back to 92L to know that even tropical waves can wreak havoc and destruction, so I'd advise everyone to still watch this system (but again, NO OVERHYPING!!!). :lol:
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:59 pm

Theres really not much I can say. This is by far the most organized system they have holded off upgrading in a long time. Thats all I'm going to say. I'm worried that this might pull a suprize.
0 likes   

gkrangers

#15 Postby gkrangers » Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:03 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Theres really not much I can say. This is by far the most organized system they have holded off upgrading in a long time. Thats all I'm going to say. I'm worried that this might pull a suprize.
I still think you get overexcited about whats really nothing.

The convection is still being sheared off...and still in a pulsing mode. Its just not organized....

I don't think we'll see it upgraded until it gets some consistent convection over the center, with some outflow and a brighter outlook for development.

Still another 24-48 hours I think.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6368
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#16 Postby boca » Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:03 pm

I think it might pull something tomorrow.
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#17 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:05 pm

The center is on the south side of all the (dying) convection tonight and it appears that the short term motion is now 270. The circulation does show up quite nicely on this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6368
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#18 Postby boca » Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:32 pm

It's defintely moving west from that sat pic and on the last frame it looked like a pulse at the very end.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#19 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:41 pm

The Pulses are getting shorter apart in more organized. They are making this storm stronger. This will make it I'm sure of it. At least if there is not any more suprizes.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6368
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#20 Postby boca » Tue Aug 16, 2005 11:52 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

They seem to think a turn to the NW late Thurs into Friday. Why?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Javlin, wxman57, Yellowlab and 88 guests