TD 10...Back Again

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 180226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND ITS CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE
AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


They still see it developing some but not as bullish as before.

[BensonTCwatcher]

toggle between the 3 hr- and 3hr+

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Looks like the shear really is decreasing. I was doubtful too based on sat imagery. Might snuff out, and if it's still got a circ in the morning, the pitiful thing could be a real problem. Given the warmer waters ahead, and a little more moisture, it can do battle with varying shear. Not that I am rooting for it either, I had a real time with Fran and the track may end up being similar. I'll check it tomorrow afternoon and freak out if necessary then

[Sanibel]

I'm tracking a weak center feature heading 275*. Should track near to or of north of Barbuda. South of or near to Anguilla as a weak Low...

[artist]

interesting -

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atc ... 902005.tcf

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 171130Z AUG 05//
WTNT01 KNGU 171200
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/171130Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 171200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 56.0W TO 17.0N 60.0W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE, REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10, CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT 16N 56W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY WINDS INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 16N 55W
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KTS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 72
HOURS. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST, IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AT 200MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE ALL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
DEVLOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA
IS 83F(28C). SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL EXPIRE, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181500Z.//

has this already expired??

[clfenwi]

interesting -

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atc ... 902005.tcf

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 171130Z AUG 05//
WTNT01 KNGU 171200
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/171130Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 171200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 56.0W TO 17.0N 60.0W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE, REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10, CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT 16N 56W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY WINDS INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 16N 55W
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KTS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 72
HOURS. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST, IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AT 200MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE ALL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
DEVLOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA
IS 83F(28C). SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL EXPIRE, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181500Z.//

has this already expired??

Expires (or has to be upgraded or re-issued) at 11 AM EDT tomorrow.

[artist]

thanks! didn't read that bottom line staring me in the face!

[superfly]

The LLC is no longer well defined. It looks like it's just a broad low now.

[boca]

I don't think XTD10 will be an issue for Florida because of the trough that will be along the E Coast at that time.

[fci]

ABNT20 KNHC 180226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND ITS CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE
AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


They still see it developing some but not as bullish as before.

I just LOVE going away a few hours, scrolling through a thread KNOWING now that the NHC sees the former TD10 falling apart; and I read some of the "enlightened" talking about how it "never looked better".

And " it has scarcely been better than right now".

And "Actually though, TD 10 looks great no matter how you look at it. What is it about the satellite imagery that doesn't impress you? "

And " perhaps it's that the road ahead of it is so glittering by anyone's interpretation"

And "Don't know what you are looking at but 10 L is looking fine as of now"

Of course I CAN BE FLIPPANT and ARROGANT since I am looking at these comments after reading the NHC discussion that came out at 10:30 and Derek's comments that " This assumes that the system survives the night, which is not looking likely.".

Personally, I want to see this sickly system R.I.P and rest up to concentrate on what is certainly coming down the road a few days or weeks from now as conditions become real favorable. With the 90 degree waters near Florida and in the GOM; we will many more pertinent things to watch then this "non-story"!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A quastion for the pro's on storm2k. The quickscats shown a area of 40 knot winds with this system. In also I heard if the system is sheared that the t numbers don't do that good. Is that true? Thanks.

Also 1995 had its weak storms to. One or two of them mean alot this year.

[artist]

from theNWS Miami discussion today -

IN THE EXTENDED...TPC HAS NOT RULED OUT THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10
MAKING A COMEBACK...POSSIBLY EVEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. PROBABLE PATH SUGGESTED BY TPC MIGHT BE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. TIME WILL TELL BUT SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10 THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST IN CASE. WILL NOT
FORECAST MUCH EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE REMNANTS OF
T.D. 10 AT THIS TIME.

ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...A STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS SHOWN BY
THE GFS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES SUNDAY INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY MONDAY. IN THE PROCESS...A FRONT IS DRAGGED INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
FARTHER SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL BEGIN TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION
BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR NOW AS IT IS WAY TOO EARLY

[Brent]

Alright... I've had it.

Either develop or go away.

[artist]

ok - it is now back up on the main Navy site - 10L

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=AUG&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=10L.NONAME&PROD=geo&PHOT=yes&AGE=Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=ir&SIZE=thumb&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20050818.0415.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.10LNONAME.25kts-1010mb-173N-579W.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/10L.NONAME/ir/geo/1km_bw&STYLE=tables&CURRENT_ATCF=al102005.05081506.gif&ATCF_NAME=al102005&PRODUCT=ir&SUB_PRODUCT=geo&SUB_SUB_PRODUCT=1km_bw&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/10L.NONAME/ir/geo/1km_bw

[MWatkins]

Looks like the LLC may be coming back together a bit this evening south and west of hte previous estimates...near 17N 58W...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

As Khan once said...

"No...Kirk...the game's not over..."

MW

[artist]

seems St. Martin is also concerned about this system -

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/stmartin.shtml

[ConvergenceZone]

Alright... I've had it.

Either develop or go away.

I agree Brent. This thing is a gonner! Even the NHC mentioned that it looks worse than it did yesterday, and with the conditions being bad for the next couple of days, it's only going to get which personally I think would be hard since it looks so bad already. I'm banking more on the Carib wave or Central Atlantic wave more than this one by a longshot!

[Sanibel]

Center just jumped north.

Should skim or miss the northern-most islands as a weak TD.

Around 280* or so...

[Sanibel]

Impacting moist area on WV to its west now...

[Sanibel]

3 AM:

Significant flare-up over TD10.

Thinking now of downstream implications...

[Sanibel]

Even stronger burst now!