ABNT20 KNHC 180226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND ITS CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE
AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
They still see it developing some but not as bullish as before.
TD 10...Back Again
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145665
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
toggle between the 3 hr- and 3hr+
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
Looks like the shear really is decreasing. I was doubtful too based on sat imagery. Might snuff out, and if it's still got a circ in the morning, the pitiful thing could be a real problem. Given the warmer waters ahead, and a little more moisture, it can do battle with varying shear. Not that I am rooting for it either, I had a real time with Fran and the track may end up being similar. I'll check it tomorrow afternoon and freak out if necessary then
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
Looks like the shear really is decreasing. I was doubtful too based on sat imagery. Might snuff out, and if it's still got a circ in the morning, the pitiful thing could be a real problem. Given the warmer waters ahead, and a little more moisture, it can do battle with varying shear. Not that I am rooting for it either, I had a real time with Fran and the track may end up being similar. I'll check it tomorrow afternoon and freak out if necessary then
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interesting -
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atc ... 902005.tcf
has this already expired??
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atc ... 902005.tcf
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 171130Z AUG 05//
WTNT01 KNGU 171200
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/171130Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 171200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 56.0W TO 17.0N 60.0W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE, REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10, CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT 16N 56W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY WINDS INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 16N 55W
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KTS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 72
HOURS. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST, IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AT 200MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE ALL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
DEVLOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA
IS 83F(28C). SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL EXPIRE, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181500Z.//
has this already expired??
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artist wrote:interesting -
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atc ... 902005.tcfSUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 171130Z AUG 05//
WTNT01 KNGU 171200
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/171130Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 171200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 56.0W TO 17.0N 60.0W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE, REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10, CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT 16N 56W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY WINDS INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 16N 55W
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KTS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 72
HOURS. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST, IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AT 200MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE ALL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
DEVLOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA
IS 83F(28C). SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL EXPIRE, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181500Z.//
has this already expired??
Expires (or has to be upgraded or re-issued) at 11 AM EDT tomorrow.
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didn't read that bottom line staring me in the face! 
cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 180226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND ITS CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE
AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
They still see it developing some but not as bullish as before.
I just LOVE going away a few hours, scrolling through a thread KNOWING now that the NHC sees the former TD10 falling apart; and I read some of the "enlightened" talking about how it "never looked better".
And " it has scarcely been better than right now".
And "Actually though, TD 10 looks great no matter how you look at it. What is it about the satellite imagery that doesn't impress you? "
And " perhaps it's that the road ahead of it is so glittering by anyone's interpretation"
And "Don't know what you are looking at but 10 L is looking fine as of now"
Of course I CAN BE FLIPPANT and ARROGANT since I am looking at these comments after reading the NHC discussion that came out at 10:30 and Derek's comments that " This assumes that the system survives the night, which is not looking likely.".
Personally, I want to see this sickly system R.I.P and rest up to concentrate on what is certainly coming down the road a few days or weeks from now as conditions become real favorable. With the 90 degree waters near Florida and in the GOM; we will many more pertinent things to watch then this "non-story"!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
from theNWS Miami discussion today -
IN THE EXTENDED...TPC HAS NOT RULED OUT THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10
MAKING A COMEBACK...POSSIBLY EVEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. PROBABLE PATH SUGGESTED BY TPC MIGHT BE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. TIME WILL TELL BUT SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10 THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST IN CASE. WILL NOT
FORECAST MUCH EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE REMNANTS OF
T.D. 10 AT THIS TIME.
ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...A STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS SHOWN BY
THE GFS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES SUNDAY INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY MONDAY. IN THE PROCESS...A FRONT IS DRAGGED INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
FARTHER SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL BEGIN TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION
BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR NOW AS IT IS WAY TOO EARLY
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Looks like the LLC may be coming back together a bit this evening south and west of hte previous estimates...near 17N 58W...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
As Khan once said...
"No...Kirk...the game's not over..."
MW
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
As Khan once said...
"No...Kirk...the game's not over..."
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
seems St. Martin is also concerned about this system -
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/stmartin.shtml
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/stmartin.shtml
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ConvergenceZone
.gif)
- Category 5
- Posts: 5194
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Brent wrote:Alright... I've had it.
Either develop or go away.
I agree Brent. This thing is a gonner! Even the NHC mentioned that it looks worse than it did yesterday, and with the conditions being bad for the next couple of days, it's only going to get which personally I think would be hard since it looks so bad already. I'm banking more on the Carib wave or Central Atlantic wave more than this one by a longshot!
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