TD 10...Back Again

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jabber
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#721 Postby jabber » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:49 am

rockyman wrote:Here's the map for ex-TD 10

Image


Is the OFCI, a project offical path, or another model?
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#722 Postby Windtalker1 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:49 am

rockyman wrote:Here's the map for ex-TD 10

Image
I think I will go straight between the 4 mods to the noth and 4 mods to the south if I had to pick a track.
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#723 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:49 am

fci wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I can't really find the center this morning. My initial impression was it could be way up at 19N/61.5W. But it could be down near 18.5N/59.7W. Cirrus is obscuring the low-level cloud elements. Could be it's gone, too, but more likely just hidden. If it's down near 19N, then it's not looking too healthy this morning with all the convection to the northwest moving away.

As for the model guidance this morning, note that the dynamic models are beginning to show a turn when it reaches the Bahamas, but the static BAM models show continued westward motion. I would remind you that the BAM models should not be used out of the deep tropics, as they perform horribly in a changing environment. This is evident in their performance with Franklin a few weeks ago:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 072118.png


wxman57:
I'm confused.
I see the model plot above (AL06) showing the turn at the Bahamas from 25/75 but when I look at the Current TPC/NHC Model Plots from Weathernet (sorry I can't paste it here; not sure how to do it although I see them all the time!); they show a west movement almost through the Fl Straits never even reaching 25/75.
Which one is the correct current plot?

Thanks for your guidance!


Sorry for the confusion, the map I posted was for TS Franklin as it approached the Bahamas. I was demonstrating that the BAM models have been performing very badly north of 20N. They should not be used out of the deep tropics.
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#724 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:53 am

Windtalker1 wrote:
rockyman wrote:Here's the map for ex-TD 10

Image
I think I will go straight between the 4 mods to the noth and 4 mods to the south if I had to pick a track.


The 5 models to the south are the 5 poorest-performing models on the map - BAMM, BAMD, BAMS, LBAR, and Extrapolated. Extrapolated isn't even a model. As many of the pros have stated over and over, the BAM models are to be used only for basic guidance when a system is in the very deep tropics - south of 20N on the bottom of the Bermuda high, for example. They don't use any physics, they're static. They should never be used out of the tropics, particularly in such a dynamic environment as exists off the east U.S. coast.

So, I would discout the BAMs (and LBAR), and go with the dynamic models that DO consider the changing atmosphere along the east coast. Those dynamic models are now beginning to show a hook to the north around the Bahamas. Let's see if that trend continues, though.
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#725 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:01 am

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 58.8 285./ 9.9
6 17.5 60.2 288./14.7
12 18.4 61.3 309./12.7
18 19.1 62.5 299./13.5
24 20.0 63.7 309./14.9
30 20.7 64.5 308./10.2
36 21.2 65.6 296./11.0
42 21.5 66.6 286./10.1
48 22.0 67.5 298./ 9.7
54 22.4 68.2 303./ 7.5
60 22.7 68.9 292./ 7.4
66 22.9 69.9 281./ 9.4
72 23.4 70.8 298./ 9.0
78 23.8 71.7 294./ 9.7
84 24.2 72.6 295./ 8.9
90 24.6 73.5 291./ 9.3


6z GFDL.
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#726 Postby SkeetoBite » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:03 am

Automated SST mapping test. SST data current as of 5:30pm EST yesterday.

Links to a large file (1000 x 590 @ 92.3k). Dial up users beware.

Image
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#727 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:06 am

SkeetoBite wrote:Automated SST mapping test. SST data current as of 5:30pm EST yesterday.

Links to a large file (1000 x 590 @ 92.3k). Dial up users beware.

Image


Now those are some warm waters. Not to mention the waters off the FL east coast which has been giving us this 100+ heat indexes the past couple days.

<RICKY>
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#728 Postby BRADGPSL-FL » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:11 am

does it look like this is headed to florida if it forms?
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#729 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:14 am

Image

I think Florida...like I said yesterday
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#730 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:15 am

That 6z GFDL is actually bending back to the left at the end of the period. The previous GFDL was bending to the north at the end.
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#731 Postby BRADGPSL-FL » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:17 am

i agree i think its headed this way if it can survive its current enviroment. i was just hoping someone was going to say its going to curve out to see since i just bought a new house
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#732 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:19 am

I have a feeling Florida will be saying "GO AWAY JOSE" this weekend :eek:
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#733 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:22 am

wxman57 wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:
rockyman wrote:Here's the map for ex-TD 10

Image
I think I will go straight between the 4 mods to the noth and 4 mods to the south if I had to pick a track.


The 5 models to the south are the 5 poorest-performing models on the map - BAMM, BAMD, BAMS, LBAR, and Extrapolated. Extrapolated isn't even a model. As many of the pros have stated over and over, the BAM models are to be used only for basic guidance when a system is in the very deep tropics - south of 20N on the bottom of the Bermuda high, for example. They don't use any physics, they're static. They should never be used out of the tropics, particularly in such a dynamic environment as exists off the east U.S. coast.



So, I would discout the BAMs (and LBAR), and go with the dynamic models that DO consider the changing atmosphere along the east coast. Those dynamic models are now beginning to show a hook to the north around the Bahamas. Let's see if that trend continues, though.




Read what WXMAN57 wrote. But we have to wait to see what the NHC has to say too.
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#734 Postby BRADGPSL-FL » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:22 am

man! hurricane shutters are on back order, 3 more weeks! time to go to home depot!
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#735 Postby fci » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:23 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Image

I think Florida...like I said yesterday


These represent the more static models while the AL10 shown above show the dynamic models with the system pulling to the North.

Why the vast difference between two sets of types of models?

Can ProMets chime in with which set they are most comfortable with? :hmm:
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#736 Postby BRADGPSL-FL » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:23 am

if td10 gets its stuff together and becomes Jose once it hits the warm water in the florida straights how do they expect it to develop? cat1/2?
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#737 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:24 am

jabber wrote:
rockyman wrote:Here's the map for ex-TD 10

Image


Is the OFCI, a project offical path, or another model?


Its official I believe...just not issued advisories. But, I would think that track would probably be the NHC line with the rest being the cone, IMO.
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#738 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:28 am

Models and landfall talk is great, the only thing we lack is a storm. Still just an wave associated with an area of low pressure.

Some were saying 98% chance of it being upgraded at 5PM yesterday. Nearly 18 hours later, still no upgrade, I will give it 50% of ever being upgraded.
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#739 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:29 am

A big difference is that the BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, LBAR are purely statistical models. The global models such as GFS, GFDL, UKMET, European, etc. are dynamical models which means they actually account for changes in the atmosphere in this case troughs coming off the east coast. The aforementioned statistical models do not account for such. Its too early to say where it will go but in these cases when tropical systems are this far north, I would tend to give the edge to the global models.

<RICKY>
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#740 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:35 am

but the statistical models (i.e, BAM) have been more accurate this year so far so I would favor those more.
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