rockyman wrote:Here's the map for ex-TD 10
Is the OFCI, a project offical path, or another model?
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fci wrote:wxman57 wrote:I can't really find the center this morning. My initial impression was it could be way up at 19N/61.5W. But it could be down near 18.5N/59.7W. Cirrus is obscuring the low-level cloud elements. Could be it's gone, too, but more likely just hidden. If it's down near 19N, then it's not looking too healthy this morning with all the convection to the northwest moving away.
As for the model guidance this morning, note that the dynamic models are beginning to show a turn when it reaches the Bahamas, but the static BAM models show continued westward motion. I would remind you that the BAM models should not be used out of the deep tropics, as they perform horribly in a changing environment. This is evident in their performance with Franklin a few weeks ago:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 072118.png
wxman57:
I'm confused.
I see the model plot above (AL06) showing the turn at the Bahamas from 25/75 but when I look at the Current TPC/NHC Model Plots from Weathernet (sorry I can't paste it here; not sure how to do it although I see them all the time!); they show a west movement almost through the Fl Straits never even reaching 25/75.
Which one is the correct current plot?
Thanks for your guidance!
Windtalker1 wrote:I think I will go straight between the 4 mods to the noth and 4 mods to the south if I had to pick a track.rockyman wrote:Here's the map for ex-TD 10
wxman57 wrote:Windtalker1 wrote:I think I will go straight between the 4 mods to the noth and 4 mods to the south if I had to pick a track.rockyman wrote:Here's the map for ex-TD 10
The 5 models to the south are the 5 poorest-performing models on the map - BAMM, BAMD, BAMS, LBAR, and Extrapolated. Extrapolated isn't even a model. As many of the pros have stated over and over, the BAM models are to be used only for basic guidance when a system is in the very deep tropics - south of 20N on the bottom of the Bermuda high, for example. They don't use any physics, they're static. They should never be used out of the tropics, particularly in such a dynamic environment as exists off the east U.S. coast.
So, I would discout the BAMs (and LBAR), and go with the dynamic models that DO consider the changing atmosphere along the east coast. Those dynamic models are now beginning to show a hook to the north around the Bahamas. Let's see if that trend continues, though.
~Floydbuster wrote:
I think Florida...like I said yesterday
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