TD 10...Back Again

[dwg71]

but the statistical models (i.e, BAM) have been more accurate this year so far so I would favor those more.

With Irene, I believe the Topical models were more west and south, and the globals stayed further offshore.

[Thunder44]

996
WHXX01 KWBC 181308
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050818 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050818 1200 050819 0000 050819 1200 050820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 59.8W 18.7N 61.9W 19.5N 63.9W 20.1N 66.0W
BAMM 17.9N 59.8W 18.7N 62.2W 19.5N 64.6W 20.3N 66.7W
A98E 17.9N 59.8W 18.5N 61.9W 19.5N 64.0W 20.8N 66.2W
LBAR 17.9N 59.8W 18.7N 61.8W 19.8N 64.0W 20.5N 66.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050820 1200 050821 1200 050822 1200 050823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.6N 68.0W 21.1N 71.7W 21.2N 74.7W 21.5N 77.3W
BAMM 20.9N 68.8W 21.6N 72.4W 22.1N 75.1W 22.8N 77.4W
A98E 21.8N 68.7W 23.4N 73.9W 24.1N 78.5W 25.5N 81.2W
LBAR 21.0N 68.3W 21.8N 72.6W 22.2N 75.8W 22.8N 77.1W
SHIP 47KTS 56KTS 62KTS 68KTS
DSHP 47KTS 56KTS 62KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 57.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 55.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WeatherEmperor]

but the statistical models (i.e, BAM) have been more accurate this year so far so I would favor those more.

Didnt you read wxman57's good post and example of how bad the BAM models were especially with tropical systems at higher latitudes? They perform well in the deep tropics but not very well above 20N. Take the example of Franklin. Just scroll up this thread and see the example he gave. The BAM models showed a persistant loop for several runs in a row with Franklin while the global models showed it turning away into the Atlantic. We all know what the end result was with that. I personally am not favoring either scenario(going south towards FL or northwards) until either one shows signs of taking shape. its just too early. But you have to give the edge to the globals.

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

but the statistical models (i.e, BAM) have been more accurate this year so far so I would favor those more.

With Irene, I believe the Topical models were more west and south, and the globals stayed further offshore.

exactly. good point. In the end, the global models ended up being correct with Irene which is why I put a little bit more faith in them regarding systems this latitude.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

yes, I see your point WeatherEmporer....how strong and far south will this trough get?

[WeatherEmperor]

yes, I see your point WeatherEmporer....how strong and far south will this trough get?

Dont know. If the global models are correct based on their current thinking, it should be far enough to tilt TD10 more towards the north before making too much of an impact on the Bahamas.

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

The BAM models are in no way statistical models. Beta and advection are simple dynamic principles

[WeatherEmperor]

The BAM models are in no way statistical models. Beta and advection are simple dynamic principles

That is something you have to take up with Wxman57 as I took that from his post. He is the pro-met so believed him when he said that the BAM models are the "non dynamic". Just go back a page on this thread and you will see that he posted the BAM's are non dynamic.

Here is where wxman57 said it. its the last post on the bottom of page. Here you go:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=700

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

they are static dynamic, meaning they assume the same flow throughout the period. I can assure you that they are not statistical though

[Frank2]

Here's the latest 1/2-mile Visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

it appears to be more of an open wave at this time, especially in the last few frames.

Frank

P.S. My apologies for yelling at our Destructo5 friend yesterday - but, please - no more "drinking" jokes (especially since I've never touched the stuff, anyway. Water, low-fat milk, CJ, Sprite, and caffine-free classic Coke are my favorites, even though I've heard that carbonated drinks can cause kidney stones).

Frank

[clfenwi]

The only pure statistical model is CLIPER. NHC98 is statistical as well, but it also takes into account current conditions.

I think I understand what wxman57 is saying when he calls the BAMs and LBAR 'non-dynamic'. He means that the only atmospheric conditions they work with are the GFS analyses, which go unaltered throughout the forecast period. Contrast to the global models (and the limited area GFDL), where the atmosphere is dynamic, changing with every time step.

However, when you look at the classifications of models, LBAR and BAMs are classified as dynamic.

See http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm , for example.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Here's the latest 1/2-mile Visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

it appears to be more of an open wave at this time, especially in the last few frames.

Frank

P.S. My apologies for yelling at our Destructo5 friend yesterday - but, please - no more "drinking" jokes (especially since I've never touched the stuff, anyway. Water, low-fat milk, CJ, Sprite, and caffine-free classic Coke are my favorites, even though I've heard that carbonated drinks can cause kidney stones).

Frank

LOL...No hard feelings here Frank...

[WeatherEmperor]

ah hah! I knew it. I was mislead by wxman57! no just kidding. If they really are dynamic, then I sort wonder how he got confused by calling them non-dynamic. Somebody please clear this up right now. Are the BAM models static or dynamic?

<RICKY>

[Anonymous]

[Frank2]

Re: Destruction5's post

Thanks very much - I appreciate you're saying that.

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

what does that mean Floydbuster?

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

I don't see a closed circulation right now.

Looks worse than it did all yesterday. Anyway, recon is on their way, so we'll have some real data this afternoon.

[Thunder44]

what does that mean Floydbuster?

<RICKY>

It a TRIMM pass from early this morning. It shows a center near 18N and 59W.

[dwg71]

really, i see about 3 suspects, but no real clear center. Its a still image, lets see this over time.

[skufful]

looking at loops, I don't see any circulation within the clouds.