TD 10...Back Again
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
Probably just encountered a new punch of shear off the Caribbean. The South American heat Low is drawn way up into the Caribbean. Or maybe the power up from the flare drew in another ingestion of dry air.
Can't help but imagine a little 1935 quick bomber with this one from the track and SST's in the Straits. But let's not go too far. Those just-north-of-the-islands trackers can be scary. But this one hasn't even formed yet.
Another pulse is probably due and that good curvature should further improve.
Looking at those models something itches in me for a curve in front of the east coast of Florida - but who really knows? Bastardi did say Florida with this one days ago...
Can't help but imagine a little 1935 quick bomber with this one from the track and SST's in the Straits. But let's not go too far. Those just-north-of-the-islands trackers can be scary. But this one hasn't even formed yet.
Another pulse is probably due and that good curvature should further improve.
Looking at those models something itches in me for a curve in front of the east coast of Florida - but who really knows? Bastardi did say Florida with this one days ago...
0 likes
- WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
last ukmet model i saw didn't look good for the EC but spared Florida and the ukmet nailed down Irene the best out of any model so maybe there is something to be concerned about but it looks really anemic today and is struggling to even stay alive so maybe it won't be anything to worry about!
0 likes
~Floydbuster wrote:Who says they won't find a broad weak center with 25 kt winds?
They might, then again they might not. I put the chances at 98% they dont.

Last edited by dwg71 on Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
ncdowneast wrote:last ukmet model i saw didn't look good for the EC but spared Florida and the ukmet nailed down Irene the best out of any model so maybe there is something to be concerned about but it looks really anemic today and is struggling to even stay alive so maybe it won't be anything to worry about!
Provide a Link of you could please. The ukmet I looked at had it recurving.
0 likes
- storms in NC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2338
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
- Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
- Contact:
skufful wrote:ncdowneast wrote:last ukmet model i saw didn't look good for the EC but spared Florida and the ukmet nailed down Irene the best out of any model so maybe there is something to be concerned about but it looks really anemic today and is struggling to even stay alive so maybe it won't be anything to worry about!
Provide a Link of you could please. The ukmet I looked at had it recurving.
ncdowneast is right on this one sorry.The ukmet had it right on Irene
0 likes
We already have a LLC, along with 25kt winds..
2. TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 18.0N 59.0W (REMNANTS
OF TD 10L SEE REF A) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS.
If Reconn confirms that, they will upgrade.
2. TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 18.0N 59.0W (REMNANTS
OF TD 10L SEE REF A) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS.
If Reconn confirms that, they will upgrade.
0 likes
storms in NC wrote:skufful wrote:ncdowneast wrote:last ukmet model i saw didn't look good for the EC but spared Florida and the ukmet nailed down Irene the best out of any model so maybe there is something to be concerned about but it looks really anemic today and is struggling to even stay alive so maybe it won't be anything to worry about!
Provide a Link of you could please. The ukmet I looked at had it recurving.
ncdowneast is right on this one sorry.The ukmet had it right on Irene
skufful wasn't asking about that. He was asking about a ukmet run that didn't look good for the east coast, saying that last he saw UKMET was showing recurve.
Indeed, 00Z had the system on a recurve profile: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
He was asking for a link to a run that showed something otherwise...
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 264
- Age: 59
- Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:05 am
- Location: Ocean Springs, MS
These are my observations...
The low level circulation has weakened significantly and is now more of a vortmax centered near 19.2N and 61.3W due north of the northern Leeward Isands. There is a mid level circulation to the east southeast near 18.3N and 58.8W. If you watch the visible loops you can see the "twisting" emerging on the northwestern edge of the cloud mass while you can also see some turning in the middle levels well to the east with a convective band curving southeastward around the southern quadrant.
No depression today... in my opinion, and in fact I don't see the westerly shear letting up at all... Therefore I am expecting this to eventually dissipate. If, if, if, the system can maintain a surface disturbance perhaps in four days or so it may have a chance to redevelop once the upper low/trof to its west weakens, perhaps over the Bahamas?
My prediction... recon finds some weak westerly winds less than 15 kt. And pressure 1011 mb, with no vortex.
The low level circulation has weakened significantly and is now more of a vortmax centered near 19.2N and 61.3W due north of the northern Leeward Isands. There is a mid level circulation to the east southeast near 18.3N and 58.8W. If you watch the visible loops you can see the "twisting" emerging on the northwestern edge of the cloud mass while you can also see some turning in the middle levels well to the east with a convective band curving southeastward around the southern quadrant.
No depression today... in my opinion, and in fact I don't see the westerly shear letting up at all... Therefore I am expecting this to eventually dissipate. If, if, if, the system can maintain a surface disturbance perhaps in four days or so it may have a chance to redevelop once the upper low/trof to its west weakens, perhaps over the Bahamas?
My prediction... recon finds some weak westerly winds less than 15 kt. And pressure 1011 mb, with no vortex.
0 likes
- deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
here is the link to the last ukmet i have access too.It does show it recurving but with a high building in to the NE and sliding off the coast it may just block it from moving out on a full recurve.
On that note it could just simply Die or even slide west into the GOM but this ukmet model nailed Irene so its worth noting.
here is the link to the last ukmet i have access too.It does show it recurving but with a high building in to the NE and sliding off the coast it may just block it from moving out on a full recurve.
On that note it could just simply Die or even slide west into the GOM but this ukmet model nailed Irene so its worth noting.
0 likes
Zoom in on the visible Floater loop and you can see a circular feature that I think is the 'eye' center just NNE of Anguilla.
I don't think posters realize important things may be happening right now. There appears to be a significant increase in forward speed and possible straightening back more west that could be the sign of being picked up by a strong ridge...
I don't think posters realize important things may be happening right now. There appears to be a significant increase in forward speed and possible straightening back more west that could be the sign of being picked up by a strong ridge...
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Fancy1002, Google Adsense [Bot], Heretoserve, Keldeo1997, Killjoy12, Landy, ljmac75, Stratton23, TallyTracker and 62 guests