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SouthFloridawx
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shear tendency

#781 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:02 pm

Image
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#782 Postby jabber » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:08 pm

Wake me up when recon gets in.... bet ya 20 bucks they find nada
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#783 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:09 pm

Shear continues to decrease, so maybe tomorrow the system will be able to maintain a convective area near or over its center.
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#784 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:11 pm

Probably just encountered a new punch of shear off the Caribbean. The South American heat Low is drawn way up into the Caribbean. Or maybe the power up from the flare drew in another ingestion of dry air.

Can't help but imagine a little 1935 quick bomber with this one from the track and SST's in the Straits. But let's not go too far. Those just-north-of-the-islands trackers can be scary. But this one hasn't even formed yet.

Another pulse is probably due and that good curvature should further improve.

Looking at those models something itches in me for a curve in front of the east coast of Florida - but who really knows? Bastardi did say Florida with this one days ago...
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#785 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:11 pm

Who says they won't find a broad weak center with 25 kt winds?
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#786 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:13 pm

Doesn't look great on the sat, but if they can find that circulation, then they should upgrad IMO.
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#787 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:14 pm

last ukmet model i saw didn't look good for the EC but spared Florida and the ukmet nailed down Irene the best out of any model so maybe there is something to be concerned about but it looks really anemic today and is struggling to even stay alive so maybe it won't be anything to worry about!
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#788 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:15 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Who says they won't find a broad weak center with 25 kt winds?


They might, then again they might not. I put the chances at 98% they dont. :wink:
Last edited by dwg71 on Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#789 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:17 pm

ncdowneast wrote:last ukmet model i saw didn't look good for the EC but spared Florida and the ukmet nailed down Irene the best out of any model so maybe there is something to be concerned about but it looks really anemic today and is struggling to even stay alive so maybe it won't be anything to worry about!


Provide a Link of you could please. The ukmet I looked at had it recurving.
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#790 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:21 pm

skufful wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:last ukmet model i saw didn't look good for the EC but spared Florida and the ukmet nailed down Irene the best out of any model so maybe there is something to be concerned about but it looks really anemic today and is struggling to even stay alive so maybe it won't be anything to worry about!


Provide a Link of you could please. The ukmet I looked at had it recurving.


ncdowneast is right on this one sorry.The ukmet had it right on Irene
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#791 Postby TS Zack » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:24 pm

We already have a LLC, along with 25kt winds..


2. TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 18.0N 59.0W (REMNANTS
OF TD 10L SEE REF A) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

If Reconn confirms that, they will upgrade.
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#792 Postby gkrangers » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:24 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Who says they won't find a broad weak center with 25 kt winds?
At the most...but we've had that, or better for days now. I don't think they would start advisories again just based on that.
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#793 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:28 pm

storms in NC wrote:
skufful wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:last ukmet model i saw didn't look good for the EC but spared Florida and the ukmet nailed down Irene the best out of any model so maybe there is something to be concerned about but it looks really anemic today and is struggling to even stay alive so maybe it won't be anything to worry about!


Provide a Link of you could please. The ukmet I looked at had it recurving.


ncdowneast is right on this one sorry.The ukmet had it right on Irene


skufful wasn't asking about that. He was asking about a ukmet run that didn't look good for the east coast, saying that last he saw UKMET was showing recurve.

Indeed, 00Z had the system on a recurve profile: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

He was asking for a link to a run that showed something otherwise...
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#794 Postby djones65 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:30 pm

These are my observations...
The low level circulation has weakened significantly and is now more of a vortmax centered near 19.2N and 61.3W due north of the northern Leeward Isands. There is a mid level circulation to the east southeast near 18.3N and 58.8W. If you watch the visible loops you can see the "twisting" emerging on the northwestern edge of the cloud mass while you can also see some turning in the middle levels well to the east with a convective band curving southeastward around the southern quadrant.
No depression today... in my opinion, and in fact I don't see the westerly shear letting up at all... Therefore I am expecting this to eventually dissipate. If, if, if, the system can maintain a surface disturbance perhaps in four days or so it may have a chance to redevelop once the upper low/trof to its west weakens, perhaps over the Bahamas?

My prediction... recon finds some weak westerly winds less than 15 kt. And pressure 1011 mb, with no vortex.
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#795 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:45 pm

I think I see the center north of Anguilla way above the islands heading nearly 290-95*. It is elongated and distorted now. This started last night - which is why the center spiral faded...
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#796 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:46 pm

big ridge is building north of the system....i could see a track over southern fl or the fl straits and into the gulf
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#797 Postby TS Zack » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:52 pm

Shear is beginning to let-up, outflow is becoming better defined on the Southwest side.
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#798 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:54 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

here is the link to the last ukmet i have access too.It does show it recurving but with a high building in to the NE and sliding off the coast it may just block it from moving out on a full recurve.

On that note it could just simply Die or even slide west into the GOM but this ukmet model nailed Irene so its worth noting.
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#799 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:55 pm

Zoom in on the visible Floater loop and you can see a circular feature that I think is the 'eye' center just NNE of Anguilla.

I don't think posters realize important things may be happening right now. There appears to be a significant increase in forward speed and possible straightening back more west that could be the sign of being picked up by a strong ridge...
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#800 Postby artist » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:56 pm

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