TD 10...Back Again

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skufful
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#801 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:58 pm

artist wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png



Basically, anywhere's fair game.
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#802 Postby artist » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:06 pm

remember the CLP5 is not a model.
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#803 Postby mascpa » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:07 pm

Reading all of thee posts is making my head spin. I'm reading contradictory interpretations of the same information by very knowledgeable people. I don't know what to think anymore. Time for a break!!
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#804 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:09 pm

mascpa wrote:Reading all of thee posts is making my head spin. I'm reading contradictory interpretations of the same information by very knowledgeable people. I don't know what to think anymore. Time for a break!!


Anytime you have nearly 800 posts on a dissipated TD, it can get a tad tedious.
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#805 Postby gkrangers » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:11 pm

mascpa wrote:Reading all of thee posts is making my head spin. I'm reading contradictory interpretations of the same information by very knowledgeable people. I don't know what to think anymore. Time for a break!!
10L is disorganized at this hour. It may have a weak surface circulation. It is still being affected by unfavorable upper level winds. With that said, it could still become a TS in a few days. Those in the northern Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the situation right now.
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#806 Postby jabber » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:13 pm

Sanibel wrote:Zoom in on the visible Floater loop and you can see a circular feature that I think is the 'eye' center just NNE of Anguilla.

I don't think posters realize important things may be happening right now. There appears to be a significant increase in forward speed and possible straightening back more west that could be the sign of being picked up by a strong ridge...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am sorry but I really do not see much. At least in the last couple days we had a swirl be it naked, but a swirl all the same. I think currently it looks the worse it has along (after being downgraded) I think the most Florida or anyone else for that matter will see from this is some rain and a little wind. Even if it does manage to pull itself together again tonight shear charts show it will not have much time before getting hammered again. My forecast is no regeneration, but a weak wave that effects Florida next mid next week. Whoops better put a disclaimer :)
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#807 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:16 pm

18/1745 UTC 18.7N 59.1W TOO WEAK 10 -- Atlantic Ocean


The latest Dvorak SSD T numbers are none.Adios to former 10.
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#808 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:19 pm

Let TD 10 die. I'm already tired of tracking it and it has been only a few days. And there is already 41 pgs. to this thread and four pages also dealing with this piece of junk on another thread.
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#809 Postby mahicks » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:21 pm

skufful wrote:
artist wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png



Basically, anywhere's fair game.



Models look to be in decent consensus, except for Clipper, which is not a model.

The real question is....We he make it??
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#810 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:21 pm

well looks like that just about does it for former TD10. Now its up to the recon to officially confirm this so we can all just move on with our lives.

<RICKY>
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#811 Postby piedmont2 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:23 pm

How many pages did you have with Ivan last year? 41 for an ex TD!? lol
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#812 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:23 pm

jabber wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Zoom in on the visible Floater loop and you can see a circular feature that I think is the 'eye' center just NNE of Anguilla.

I don't think posters realize important things may be happening right now. There appears to be a significant increase in forward speed and possible straightening back more west that could be the sign of being picked up by a strong ridge...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am sorry but I really do not see much. At least in the last couple days we had a swirl be it naked, but a swirl all the same. I think currently it looks the worse it has along (after being downgraded) I think the most Florida or anyone else for that matter will see from this is some rain and a little wind. Even if it does manage to pull itself together again tonight shear charts show it will not have much time before getting hammered again. My forecast is no regeneration, but a weak wave that effects Florida next mid next week. Whoops better put a disclaimer :)


Took the words right out of my mouth Jabber. Just not much there, but I do see the features others are talking about. The problem is the SWerly shear is not abating and continues all the way to Hispaniola from what I can see. No regeneration anytime soon and possible dissapation(officialy)later today after recon is through.
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#813 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:24 pm

CLIPER *is* a model, it's just a statistical one, not dynamic.

That is what NHC uses as the baseline for all the other models; their performance is measured against it.

Similarly, SHIFOR is the statistical model for intensity that is used as the baseline for intensity guidance. Sadly, there are models that do worse than it on average.
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#814 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:24 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Let TD 10 die. I'm already tired of tracking it and it has been only a few days. And there is already 41 pgs. to this thread and four pages also dealing with this piece of junk on another thread.


OK, what would you like to talk about?
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elysium

#815 Postby elysium » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:27 pm

Sanibel just made the observation of the year; TD 10 is tracking more to the west with a center NNW of Antigua.

I have been looking at the east west orientation of the trough scheduled to come off the east coast in a few days. Has anyone else seen this?
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#816 Postby artist » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:29 pm

thanks for clarifying that clfenwi! :D
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#817 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:29 pm

rockyman wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Let TD 10 die. I'm already tired of tracking it and it has been only a few days. And there is already 41 pgs. to this thread and four pages also dealing with this piece of junk on another thread.


OK, what would you like to talk about?


A nice fat jumbo CV Cat 5 storm that doesn't affect anybody.
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#818 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:31 pm

well I guess we can start talking about that wave that is supposed to move off Africa late tonigt into early tomorrow morning that most of the models are developing into a cyclone. So we could just take the remainder of the day off, pending confirmation from the hurricane hunters that TD10 is nothing and take things from there I guess.

<RICKY>
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#819 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:31 pm

Folks this has been happening for days now(Up and Down)...Its certainly not written off yet...Wait till that Shear calms Jose is going to be born!!!! I say Cat 1 in the Bahamas..
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#820 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:33 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
rockyman wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Let TD 10 die. I'm already tired of tracking it and it has been only a few days. And there is already 41 pgs. to this thread and four pages also dealing with this piece of junk on another thread.


OK, what would you like to talk about?


A nice fat jumbo CV Cat 5 storm that doesn't affect anybody.


When I see one of those, I'll holler for you 8-) Until then, I guess we'll just keep wasting bandwidth discussing this "piece of junk."
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