Central/SW/Western Caribbean disturbance thread

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WindRunner
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#41 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:09 pm

I don't know if they even have that many reliable obs down there, so it might not matter. It's a shame I just got rid of my "World Severe Storms Centre"(?) link a couple of weeks ago, they might have had something.
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#42 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:13 pm

NHC 8:05 p.m. Discussion excerpt:

COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BROAD LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS COULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A SURGE IN
MOISTURE ALONG 72W... POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF
TROPICAL GENESIS IN THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER WINDS SHOULD BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND IT IS AN AREA TO BE WATCHED AT THE LEAST.
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#43 Postby Huckster » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:14 pm

Definitely looks interesting down there, but I don't think it's at the surface right now. The last visible shots I saw seemed to show mostly an easterly flow at the surface.
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#44 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:34 pm

Here's where I think the center is forming...

Image
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#45 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:41 pm

Steering flow is from the south...at least until the system gets NE of Nicaragua...Anyone know what the steering flow in the northwest Caribbean is supposed in a couple of days?

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#46 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:43 pm

Shear is very low and getting even lower (I promise this is the last image for a while!):

Image
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#47 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:43 pm

rockyman wrote:Here's where I think the center is forming...

Image




good eyes Rockmn. I saw this two earlier. Not much real estate if this a potential center. Think the TWO mentioned another one farther N??....
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#48 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:45 pm

my fellow TXn's do you see where that steering flow would take it IF** it got into the gulf??
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#49 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:49 pm

deltadog03 wrote:my fellow TXn's do you see where that steering flow would take it IF** it got into the gulf??



Florida?? :lol:
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#50 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:51 pm

LOL!!!
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#51 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:41 pm

deltadog03 wrote:my fellow TXn's do you see where that steering flow would take it IF** it got into the gulf??


Most definately. I hope this one isn't the surprise sleeping giant...
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#52 Postby rockyman » Fri Aug 19, 2005 8:22 am

The mid-level swirl has persisted and moved further north this morning and will be probably be east of Honduras (instead of Nicaragua) later today...Apparently NHC is no longer bullish on this system. Here's the latest TWD:

W CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION REMAINS NEAR 13N82W AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES WESTWARD. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK. ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS
TIED TO THE UPPER LOW RATHER THAN AS RESULT OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE.
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