Central/SW/Western Caribbean disturbance thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#41 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:09 pm

I don't know if they even have that many reliable obs down there, so it might not matter. It's a shame I just got rid of my "World Severe Storms Centre"(?) link a couple of weeks ago, they might have had something.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#42 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:13 pm

NHC 8:05 p.m. Discussion excerpt:

COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BROAD LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS COULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A SURGE IN
MOISTURE ALONG 72W... POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF
TROPICAL GENESIS IN THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER WINDS SHOULD BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND IT IS AN AREA TO BE WATCHED AT THE LEAST.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Huckster
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 394
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:33 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact Huckster

#43 Postby Huckster » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:14 pm

Definitely looks interesting down there, but I don't think it's at the surface right now. The last visible shots I saw seemed to show mostly an easterly flow at the surface.
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#44 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:34 pm

Here's where I think the center is forming...

Image
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#45 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:41 pm

Steering flow is from the south...at least until the system gets NE of Nicaragua...Anyone know what the steering flow in the northwest Caribbean is supposed in a couple of days?

Image
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#46 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:43 pm

Shear is very low and getting even lower (I promise this is the last image for a while!):

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9492
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#47 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:43 pm

rockyman wrote:Here's where I think the center is forming...

Image




good eyes Rockmn. I saw this two earlier. Not much real estate if this a potential center. Think the TWO mentioned another one farther N??....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#48 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:45 pm

my fellow TXn's do you see where that steering flow would take it IF** it got into the gulf??
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9492
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#49 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:49 pm

deltadog03 wrote:my fellow TXn's do you see where that steering flow would take it IF** it got into the gulf??



Florida?? :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#50 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:51 pm

LOL!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8250
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#51 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:41 pm

deltadog03 wrote:my fellow TXn's do you see where that steering flow would take it IF** it got into the gulf??


Most definately. I hope this one isn't the surprise sleeping giant...
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#52 Postby rockyman » Fri Aug 19, 2005 8:22 am

The mid-level swirl has persisted and moved further north this morning and will be probably be east of Honduras (instead of Nicaragua) later today...Apparently NHC is no longer bullish on this system. Here's the latest TWD:

W CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION REMAINS NEAR 13N82W AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES WESTWARD. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK. ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS
TIED TO THE UPPER LOW RATHER THAN AS RESULT OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Team Ghost and 276 guests